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Thread: My Betting Strategy

  1. #1


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    My Betting Strategy

    I play my local casino regularly and want to avoid getting backed off while accumulating as many comps as I can. I am willing to keep my bet spread fairly modest in the interest of preserving longevity. I would appreciate advice on my betting strategy from the contributors to this forum who are obviously more experienced and knowledgeable than I am as a “hobby” player.

    My standard minimum bet is $25 and my maximum bet is $150 X 2 hands. However, when the count is very bad, then I switch my bet to only $10 (usually with a dramatic presentation showing my frustration while waiting for the “hot” dealer to cool off). Also, I recently added a “super MAX” bet of $200 X 2, only when the count is way above the normal max betting point (which happens rarely).

    Any feedback?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by WA Player View Post
    Any feedback?
    Yes. Apparently, your definition of a "fairly modest" bet spread of $10 to $400 is slightly different from mine!

    Don

  3. #3


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    Hay man. This is an interesting post as your spread with good to moderate rules is going to net you way more than you'll earn in comps. Comps are good but in this case it would be an extra benefit to your EV. 1-40 spread is a huge spread, id suggest you wong out at a -1 on multi deck games and if you can wong out when you can on DD games on a -2ish count. And if youre a local player trying to conserve your places to play i suggest making your play time shorter. I used to do marathon sessions, which eventually led to heat and backoffs. Now I show my max bet no more than 2-3 times and i bounce. Id say dont worry about comps and generate rounds per hour and expected value. I believe im in your are and have a good knowledge of the games there.

  4. #4


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    WA Player, in regarding to betting very high when the count is very high, is there indeed a relationship between such? From looking at very limited sim data recently, I was under the impression that perhaps at the extreme end (the extreme positive count end), a very high count is not as reliable a predictor of a player win as, say, is a low to moderate count.

    Anyone: does any data back this thought up?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    WA Player, in regarding to betting very high when the count is very high, is there indeed a relationship between such? From looking at very limited sim data recently, I was under the impression that perhaps at the extreme end (the extreme positive count end), a very high count is not as reliable a predictor of a player win as, say, is a low to moderate count.

    Anyone: does any data back this thought up?
    There is a difference % win rate but it is very minor. Higher dollar win a result of more blackjacks as well as higher success rates on splits and doubles. Other than some real extremes, you will still lose more hands that you win in high counts.

    You will never win 50% of hands. Taking ties out of the equation, you will win more hands than you lose in high counts - I think at least true 5 if not higher.

  6. #6


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    Thank you. What you say makes a lot of sense. I'm still a rookie, but trying to learn more and improve as I go.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    WA Player, in regarding to betting very high when the count is very high, is there indeed a relationship between such? From looking at very limited sim data recently, I was under the impression that perhaps at the extreme end (the extreme positive count end), a very high count is not as reliable a predictor of a player win as, say, is a low to moderate count.

    Anyone: does any data back this thought up?
    I am assuming that as the count goes up to very high levels that my confidence in being in a positive EV will improve. I'm not necessarily assuming a proportional increase in EV, but just more certain that even if I am off by a point or 2, that EV will still be solidly positive. Sadly, I don't have any data to back this up and am hoping that someone will help to enlighten me.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sdrawrof View Post
    Hay man. This is an interesting post as your spread with good to moderate rules is going to net you way more than you'll earn in comps. Comps are good but in this case it would be an extra benefit to your EV. 1-40 spread is a huge spread, id suggest you wong out at a -1 on multi deck games and if you can wong out when you can on DD games on a -2ish count. And if youre a local player trying to conserve your places to play i suggest making your play time shorter. I used to do marathon sessions, which eventually led to heat and backoffs. Now I show my max bet no more than 2-3 times and i bounce. Id say dont worry about comps and generate rounds per hour and expected value. I believe im in your are and have a good knowledge of the games there.
    Thanks for the feedback. I guess my username gave away where I am located. There are lots of Indian casinos in Western Washington, but there is one in particular that I (and my wife) prefer. Actually, I really prefer to keep my wife happy...everything else is just a bonus.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Yes. Apparently, your definition of a "fairly modest" bet spread of $10 to $400 is slightly different from mine!

    Don
    Good point. I guess I am hoping that the casino will "see" a smaller spread since I really never go from the super low to the super high in the same shoe. However, I really don't know what the security people on the other end of the cameras are looking at. The personnel on the floor never give me a hard time, but I don't want a tap on the shoulder from someone in a suit.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by WA Player View Post
    I am assuming that as the count goes up to very high levels that my confidence in being in a positive EV will improve. I'm not necessarily assuming a proportional increase in EV, but just more certain that even if I am off by a point or 2, that EV will still be solidly positive. Sadly, I don't have any data to back this up and am hoping that someone will help to enlighten me.

    Higher true counts continue to furnish higher expectations. There is no tapering off, or reaching an inflection point, as is the case with negative counts. At about -13 true or so (why would you be anywhere near the table??), the edge stops decreasing. But, there is no corresponding phenomenon on the upside. Despite this, the edge doesn't quite continue to increase linearly, as, at extremely high counts, there are an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes.

    Don

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by WA Player View Post
    Thanks for the feedback. I guess my username gave away where I am located. There are lots of Indian casinos in Western Washington, but there is one in particular that I (and my wife) prefer. Actually, I really prefer to keep my wife happy...everything else is just a bonus.

    Yes, happy wife happy life.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    there are an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes.
    Don, is this a test?

  13. #13


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    I'm sure it's store-dependent, but I wonder how much spread really affects longevity. If the store knows you're playing with an edge, do they really say to themselves "well, he's only spreading 10:1, so we'll let him play, but if he starts spreading 30:1, he's outta here."

    I have a similar situation where I've been playing my local game for years with little heat. Recently increased my spread to 50:1 and so far no problem. I have a losing record on my card, which I'm sure makes a difference. I figure if they were going to back me off, they already would have.

    Where I suspect spread matters is not with your local game but with a place where you're unknown - I would think a bigger spread would be more likely to trigger a review in the first place.

    Please shoot me down - if I'm wrong I'd like to know so I don't lose my local game.

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