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Thread: My Betting Strategy

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21frogman View Post
    Don, is this a test?
    Would you have preferred: "there are a large number of 20-20 pushes"?

    Don

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I'm sure it's store-dependent, but I wonder how much spread really affects longevity. If the store knows you're playing with an edge, do they really say to themselves "well, he's only spreading 10:1, so we'll let him play, but if he starts spreading 30:1, he's outta here."

    I have a similar situation where I've been playing my local game for years with little heat. Recently increased my spread to 50:1 and so far no problem. I have a losing record on my card, which I'm sure makes a difference. I figure if they were going to back me off, they already would have.

    Where I suspect spread matters is not with your local game but with a place where you're unknown - I would think a bigger spread would be more likely to trigger a review in the first place.

    Please shoot me down - if I'm wrong I'd like to know so I don't lose my local game.
    I also have a losing record on my players card and steadily rathole chips to ensure that the casino continues to see me as a loser. Maybe that is what the casino people focus on and maybe the spread is not as visible as I thought it was. I wish I new more about how casino security people think and what they are really looking for.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Would you have preferred: "there are a large number of 20-20 pushes"?
    No. I was thinking, "There is an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes."

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21frogman View Post
    No. I was thinking, "There is an inordinate amount of 20-20 pushes."
    That's really wrong also. But there are two different concepts at work here. The fact is that "amount" shouldn't be used for things that can be counted. As I mentioned, I should have written "number." You reserve "amount" for what can't be counted, such as, "There is a large amount of water in the beaker." You use "number" for things that can be counted (such as pushes!). So, as I replied, I should written, "there are a large number of 20-20 pushes."

    I just want to make sure that you also understand, in the latter construction, that we use the plural verb "are" and not the singular "is."

    Don

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I just want to make sure that you also understand, in the latter construction, that we use the plural verb "are" and not the singular "is."
    You addressed my (erroneous) concern. It was the use of "are", a plural verb, to modify what I thought was a singular noun. I was unaware that "amount" in this circumstance has plural status.
    What made it stand out more than usual was the singular adjective, "an", modifying it.
    Thanks for the explanation.
    Last edited by 21frogman; 07-28-2021 at 01:10 PM.

  6. #19


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    I don't even care

    On $10 table, I min bet $10 @ TC <=1 and wong out when count become very negative. I bet up to $500 and 2 to 3 hands when TC >=5

    Who cares !

    Casinos do not even care why I care about it?

    They are busy catching real cheaters.




    Quote Originally Posted by WA Player View Post
    I play my local casino regularly and want to avoid getting backed off while accumulating as many comps as I can. I am willing to keep my bet spread fairly modest in the interest of preserving longevity. I would appreciate advice on my betting strategy from the contributors to this forum who are obviously more experienced and knowledgeable than I am as a “hobby” player.

    My standard minimum bet is $25 and my maximum bet is $150 X 2 hands. However, when the count is very bad, then I switch my bet to only $10 (usually with a dramatic presentation showing my frustration while waiting for the “hot” dealer to cool off). Also, I recently added a “super MAX” bet of $200 X 2, only when the count is way above the normal max betting point (which happens rarely).

    Any feedback?

  7. #20


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    Guys
    Our illustrious leader has commented that remarks should be limited to AP activity and casinos. All this commentary on verbs (past and present), nouns are off point and therefore of no value. Mind you, I’ve not seen derision of adjectives.

    The attached link pertains to casino personnel hovering for years at critter level, and for their superiors.
    https://youtu.be/GI2-8fsiLvY

    You will note that there is a grammatical error in the subject line. It pertains to the singular VS the plural. Oops, I’m off point.

  8. #21


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    TC > 5 or even TC>10 does not mean you will be able to win your hands!

    It just means that your odds are slightly better however you can only achieve the guaranteed profit in a very very long haul.

    many many times when TC>5 or even TC>10 Dealer got several blackjack hands in a roll. So if you bet 2-3 hands of $500 and lost, I don't see any reason Casino would ever hate you.

    Your max bet should only be a function of your bankroll.

    As long as you have enough bankroll to recover, you should spread your bet as much as possible to minimized the relative rate of table rent and maximized your hourly profit.
    Last edited by BJcountingmaster; 07-29-2021 at 11:35 AM.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by WA Player View Post
    I play my local casino regularly and want to avoid getting backed off while accumulating as many comps as I can. I am willing to keep my bet spread fairly modest in the interest of preserving longevity. I would appreciate advice on my betting strategy from the contributors to this forum who are obviously more experienced and knowledgeable than I am as a “hobby” player.

    My standard minimum bet is $25 and my maximum bet is $150 X 2 hands. However, when the count is very bad, then I switch my bet to only $10 (usually with a dramatic presentation showing my frustration while waiting for the “hot” dealer to cool off). Also, I recently added a “super MAX” bet of $200 X 2, only when the count is way above the normal max betting point (which happens rarely).

    Any feedback?
    This is your "Bet Spread" Tell US about your Bankroll and "Bet Strategy?"


    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    ................


    WA Player :



    good luck on your adventure - I well remember how exciting it was for me when I first started playing

    you asked for feedback so I noticed that you did not mention your Bankroll

    I'm not going to ask you how much that is because that's kinna (intentional misspelling Don - literary license) personal

    I hope your BR is sufficiently large considering the size of your bets

    being undercapitalized is the biggest stumbling block for new players

    you prolly (intentional misspelling Don - literary license) might benefit from taking a look at the linked pages which are Risk of Ruin calculators from Don's book if you have not already done so

    again, Good Luck, and I'm looking forward to hearing more about your adventure




    also, a question for Don

    if I remember correctly if a person is playing 2 hands and betting $200 on each hand as his max bet(s) - then for the purposes of ROR he should consider his unit size as being $ 300

    is that correct?


    Blackjack Risk Calculator (qfit.com)


    Blackjack Risk of Ruin (blackjackincolor.com)



    .
    I Guess that depends what his MaxBet is. I dont think you average it out though.

    Your right, he doesnt mention his BR or how how aggressively hes playing his bet stratetgy, just his spread.

    And from what i understand you should have around 2-3 hundred Max Bets going into it.
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  10. #23
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    Its bad spread for shoes game. What kind of penetration?
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    This is your "Bet Spread" Tell US about your Bankroll and "Bet Strategy?"
    My daily bankroll is $4,000 and my overall bankroll is $30,000. My bet strategy is broken into 4 advantage levels based on count; Standard Bet= $25, Adv1=$75, Adv2=$150, Adv3=$300, Adv4=$400 (the amount from Adv2 on up are divided among 2 hands). If the count goes bad, I either leave the table or reduce my bet to $10. The penetration is good with the cut card around 1 deck from the end in an 8 deck shoe.

  12. #25


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    Really, it makes no sense at all to even play an 8 deck shoe with these options.

  13. #26


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    why would you only bring $4000 when your max bet is at $400? you should bring 30 max bets for 4 hours of counting as a general rule. i believe that put s you under 5% of losing it all.

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