For some weird reason, the MGP program worked fine for me today, so I was able to find out that the EV component for the 5+Card-21/678/777 autowin bonus is +0.35% for a 8-deck Spanish shoe Stand-17 game. However, this number sounds too large for me, because the probabilities of having these 5+Card-21/678/777 hands are very small but the additional gains from these hands are only 0.5/1/2. Even though the payoff are listed as 1.5/2/3, the player's 21 always win has already used the payoff of 1/1/1. I am not sure this MGP program calculated it correctly or not. If you can, please verify this number. Thank you for your help.
I meant post the file under File > Save Rule set .. it's a .rs file.
Using your rules pictured above I get a total dependent EV of .. -0.407563384486091%
With no bonuses I get EV of -0.753553964463607 %
So the bonuses are worth 0.345990579977516, matching what you have.
I had analyzed certain rule changes to the sp21h17 variant .. pictured below, might help.
Last edited by Super Natural; 08-03-2021 at 08:07 PM.
I carefully compared your rule set and mine and found that they were slight different. Under the Player-Dealer Payoffs\Hand Total\21 box, you checked "Player Win" but I checked "Push," but our calculation results came out exactly the same. I guess it doesn't matter as long as "Player 21 always wins" is checked. There are some overlapping of different rules and they are not defined very well.
Based on the table above, I see the EV component for the 5+Card-21/678/777 autowin bonus is +0.33% for a 8-deck Spanish shoe Hit-17 game. Slightly less than the 0.35% of Stand-17 games, but it should be more. The result does not make sense because Hit-17 games give a greater EV component from 5+card-21 bonuses. Why? Maybe it is because Hit-17 games give a less EV from 678/777 autowin bonuses. This is trivial anyway.
Last edited by aceside; 08-05-2021 at 08:01 AM.
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