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Thread: Am I dreaming??

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Am I dreaming??

    So I am playing a game that I heard was ES10. I assumed that I could only early surrender my hand when the dealer had a 10 up card (which by the way, is crazy having never played ES10 before because they only give you 0.1 seconds to decide before they don't let you anymore!). This is all fine and dandy as I ran CVData and found out that I would early surrender 14-16 vs 10 and 12/13/17 in very high counts (6D S17 ENHC ES10 DAS DOA RSA 3SPL but 3.5/6 pen so these high count ES10 index plays are a rather moot point).

    ANYWAYS..........

    So a particularly sexy and attractive dealer is chatting me up and being very friendly and inviting. He notices that I am constantly surrendering my hands and then a dealer 9 vs player 16 situation arose and he asked me if I wanted to early surrender. I had a shocked look on my face as I muttered "I thought you can only early surrender against a 10?!". He looked at me and said no you can early surrender against anything except an ACE.

    SO I CAN EARLY SURRENDER AGAINST 9s and 8s???????!!!!!!!

    I would assume that 16 vs 9 is an early surrender basic strategy play. 16 vs 8, 15 vs 9, and 15 vs 8 would probably need higher counts to be early surrenders (again rather moot points since with 3.5/6 pen I doubt these would occur often enough to be worthy of noting).

    Am I missing any??

    Thanks,

    Dalmatian

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    Is this in Croatia? Austria? It’s tough to count a shoe with 3.5/6 penetration. You can just beat this game easily flat bet. But, this is not full early surrender, only partially. I am actually not sure if you can beat it flat bet.
    Last edited by aceside; 07-20-2021 at 07:15 AM.

  4. #4
    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Is this in Croatia? Austria? It’s tough to count a shoe with 3.5/6 penetration. You can just beat this game easily flat bet. But, this is not full early surrender, only partially. I am actually not sure if you can beat it flat bet.
    Hi Aceside. No I cannot beat this game flat bet because I cannot early surrender against an ACE. The house edge for this game is very favorable @ 0.21%

    Benchmark Game 6D S17 DOA NDAS NDAS NRSA NSURR: 0.55% House Edge (from "The 21st Century Card Counter pg. 100-101)

    DAS +0.14%

    RSA +0.07%

    ES10 +0.24%

    ENHC -0.11%

    =(-0.55%) + 0.14% + 0.07% + 0.24% -0.11% = -0.21%

    What is killing me is the bad pen. At the start I could get some dealers that give me 1.7-2.3 decks cut off but they rotate quickly and half the dealers are cutting 2.3-2.7 decks.

    I ran CVCX for these rules and got a 38% ROR on the 13k I brought with me (total bank is 150k) and a win rate of about $50/hr with a N0 of 800 hours using Hi Low I18 Indices.

    It's basically pure gambling.

    I was up 2000 euros off the bat but gave back 1800 last night

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    Let's get some terminology straight. If this is ENHC, where you lose all doubles and splits to dealer naturals, then if you were permitted to surrender against either 10 or Ace, that is EARLY surrender, because you get to surrender before the dealer ever gets to his second card, before he could have a natural. That rule is very valuable. But if, in the same game, you can surrender against any other dealer upcard, like 8 or 9, that is normal surrender, in the sense that it is no more valuable than traditional late surrender. I wouldn't call it EARLY surrender, because the fact that the dealer takes no hole card is irrelevant.

    Depending, of course, on spread and penetration, which sucks in this game, the most important surrenders against 8 or 9, in order are: 15 vs. 9 at +2 (very valuable), 16 vs. 8 (+4), 16 vs. 9 (+5), 14 vs. 9 (+7), and 15 vs. 8 (+7). No others are worth knowing. But 15 vs. 9 is worth 1.5 times more than all the other combined!

    Don

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Let's get some terminology straight. If this is ENHC, where you lose all doubles and splits to dealer naturals, then if you were permitted to surrender against either 10 or Ace, that is EARLY surrender, because you get to surrender before the dealer ever gets to his second card, before he could have a natural. That rule is very valuable. But if, in the same game, you can surrender against any other dealer upcard, like 8 or 9, that is normal surrender, in the sense that it is no more valuable than traditional late surrender. I wouldn't call it EARLY surrender, because the fact that the dealer takes no hole card is irrelevant.

    Depending, of course, on spread and penetration, which sucks in this game, the most important surrenders against 8 or 9, in order are: 15 vs. 9 at +2 (very valuable), 16 vs. 8 (+4), 16 vs. 9 (+5), 14 vs. 9 (+7), and 15 vs. 8 (+7). No others are worth knowing. But 15 vs. 9 is worth 1.5 times more than all the other combined!

    Don
    Thanks Don. I guess what I'm confusing is early surrender (which only applies to 10 and Ace) and late surrender (like you argued, by default surrendering against any other rank of card that isn't A or 10 in a ENHC game). I didn't realize that a ES10 game can let you surrender against non 10 dealer up cards (i.e. 8s and 9s). This is news to me. But like you argued surrendering against a 8 or 9 isn't particularly of significant value.

    Don here is question you might be able to answer. We can normally put a percentage value for a particular rule set (like RSA vs NRSA is +0.07% against house edge and ES10 is +0.24%, etc.). What is the value of ALL late surrender indices in a game that offers early surrender of 10 but not ace and is ENHC (you cant late surrender X and A so only 8s and 9s). Would this be less than or greater than +0.01%? Or are these late surrender indices already calculated into the +0.24% figure given for ES10?

    Thanks,

    Dalmatian

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Don here is question you might be able to answer. We can normally put a percentage value for a particular rule set (like RSA vs NRSA is +0.07% against house edge and ES10 is +0.24%, etc.). What is the value of ALL late surrender indices in a game that offers early surrender of 10 but not ace and is ENHC (you cant late surrender X and A so only 8s and 9s). Would this be less than or greater than +0.01%? Or are these late surrender indices already calculated into the +0.24% figure given for ES10?
    Beyond ES10, being able to surrender vs. 9 is worth virtually nothing (0.001%) to the basic strategist, and surrender vs. 8 is worth zero. But, as mentioned above, being able to surrender vs. 8 or 9 for the card counter who spreads decently is a very different story. The value of those plays obviously depends on number of decks, penetration, and especially spread. For example, in a 4.5/6, S17, LS 1-12 game, using those surrenders would increase SCORE by about 2.5%.

    Don

  8. #8
    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Beyond ES10, being able to surrender vs. 9 is worth virtually nothing (0.001%) to the basic strategist, and surrender vs. 8 is worth zero. But, as mentioned above, being able to surrender vs. 8 or 9 for the card counter who spreads decently is a very different story. The value of those plays obviously depends on number of decks, penetration, and especially spread. For example, in a 4.5/6, S17, LS 1-12 game, using those surrenders would increase SCORE by about 2.5%.

    Don
    Thanks Don!!!

    I AM spreading pretty hefty on the 3.5/6 S17 ENHC ES10 DOA DAS RSA 3SPL Game:

    Negative and Neutral Counts: 1x5

    +1: 2x50

    +2 and above: 2x100

    It would probably be worth my time to memorize these surrender plays which would probably add at least a $1 to my hourly EV!!!

    Dalmatian

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    As you know, what's hurting you is the 3.5/6. That's beyond awful. Not sure how long you can get away with jumping from $5 to $100 as the count moves to +1.

    Don

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    Its coming ....
    The tap at the shoulders

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