Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 21 to 29 of 29

Thread: Questions about Player Advantage and 'Next Card is An Ace' Math

  1. #21


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    But regarding the 10 cards, dont we need to adjust for the varying frequencies of 10 vs. Aces (whereas we dont have to adjust for the scenario of 6s and Aces). What I mean is, if I believe Aces tend to follow tens, because there arent enough Aces to 'keep up' with the greater number of 10s (vs. Aces), isn't the anticipated 10-Ace 'connection' not as likely to take place due only to an unequal amount of Aces relative to 10s, thereby warranting some sort of 'correction' (perhaps multiplication?)?
    Yes, sure. In the end, you can't have any more aces follow tens than follow sixes. But, then, you'd have to keep track of the tens followed by aces that come out and whether you "used up" opportunities that didn't produce aces.

    Don

  2. #22


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thank you, Don.

  3. #23
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    11,486
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    CVData has Next Card and Partial Next Card strategy functions. But, they are based on overall results. Not sure of the usefulness of looking at specific instances. I avoid looking at one off situations as I want to blend in the time taken to find them. But, always willing to listen.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  4. #24


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    CVData has Next Card and Partial Next Card strategy functions. But, they are based on overall results. Not sure of the usefulness of looking at specific instances. I avoid looking at one off situations as I want to blend in the time taken to find them. But, always willing to listen.
    I've thought about and considered the concept of next card theory relative to all counts - with emphasis on high counts and especially emphasis on dealer ace up in high counts. I’ve no way of expanding on my thoughts, or for that matter if those thoughts have relevance. I’ve deviated from certain standard plays on the latter item, and though I’ve experienced what I construe as success, my personal sample sizes are limited in scope.

    Curious about the thoughts of others.

  5. #25
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    11,486
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    CVData can show next carding effects by count and by hand if you have a way of seeing the next card. What it can't do is steering. Problem is defining how you might steer. Which is damn difficult to pull off anyhow. HC and partial HC is much easier.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  6. #26


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    CVData can show next carding effects by count and by hand if you have a way of seeing the next card. What it can't do is steering. Problem is defining how you might steer. Which is damn difficult to pull off anyhow. HC and partial HC is much easier.
    My pet theories are based on not seeing the next card

  7. #27


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Norm, would you please explain with different terms what you meant by "Not sure of the usefulness of looking at specific instances. I avoid looking at one off situations as I want to blend in the time taken to find them. But, always willing to listen."

    For instance,
    1) Are you contrasting 'specific instances' (of non-simmed Blackjack) with sims of billions of hands?
    2) What is an example of a 'one off situation?'
    3) What did you mean about 'blending in the time taken to find them.'?

    Thanks.

  8. #28
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    11,486
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Generally, I want to look at your hourly rates and risk as opposed to if a certain situation occurs, what is the possible gain.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  9. #29


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Hole carding and next carding advantages could be computed with a CA that computes the ev for any dealer/player hand composition. I think k_c's and mine are capable of doing that. I have attached some old work of mine that calculates the advantage of always steering a 10 to a dealer's hand.

    https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aps8eamZWeC1a6dy...QziAY?e=b1VbYc
    Chance favors the prepared mind

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123

Similar Threads

  1. Player advantage on Ante Bonus 3 Card Poker?
    By blueman in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 12-11-2017, 11:27 AM
  2. Advantage Play and the Math
    By BetWise21 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 07-10-2017, 12:39 PM
  3. Replies: 15
    Last Post: 09-17-2012, 10:31 AM
  4. thall: added advantage with math support?
    By thall in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 01-06-2005, 05:23 PM
  5. PB: player advantage
    By PB in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 09-04-2002, 05:15 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.