# Thread: Questions about Player Advantage and 'Next Card is An Ace' Math

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Originally Posted by Overkill
But regarding the 10 cards, dont we need to adjust for the varying frequencies of 10 vs. Aces (whereas we dont have to adjust for the scenario of 6s and Aces). What I mean is, if I believe Aces tend to follow tens, because there arent enough Aces to 'keep up' with the greater number of 10s (vs. Aces), isn't the anticipated 10-Ace 'connection' not as likely to take place due only to an unequal amount of Aces relative to 10s, thereby warranting some sort of 'correction' (perhaps multiplication?)?
Yes, sure. In the end, you can't have any more aces follow tens than follow sixes. But, then, you'd have to keep track of the tens followed by aces that come out and whether you "used up" opportunities that didn't produce aces.

Don

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Thank you, Don.

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CVData has Next Card and Partial Next Card strategy functions. But, they are based on overall results. Not sure of the usefulness of looking at specific instances. I avoid looking at one off situations as I want to blend in the time taken to find them. But, always willing to listen.

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Originally Posted by Norm
CVData has Next Card and Partial Next Card strategy functions. But, they are based on overall results. Not sure of the usefulness of looking at specific instances. I avoid looking at one off situations as I want to blend in the time taken to find them. But, always willing to listen.
I've thought about and considered the concept of next card theory relative to all counts - with emphasis on high counts and especially emphasis on dealer ace up in high counts. I’ve no way of expanding on my thoughts, or for that matter if those thoughts have relevance. I’ve deviated from certain standard plays on the latter item, and though I’ve experienced what I construe as success, my personal sample sizes are limited in scope.

Curious about the thoughts of others.

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CVData can show next carding effects by count and by hand if you have a way of seeing the next card. What it can't do is steering. Problem is defining how you might steer. Which is damn difficult to pull off anyhow. HC and partial HC is much easier.

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Originally Posted by Norm
CVData can show next carding effects by count and by hand if you have a way of seeing the next card. What it can't do is steering. Problem is defining how you might steer. Which is damn difficult to pull off anyhow. HC and partial HC is much easier.
My pet theories are based on not seeing the next card

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Norm, would you please explain with different terms what you meant by "Not sure of the usefulness of looking at specific instances. I avoid looking at one off situations as I want to blend in the time taken to find them. But, always willing to listen."

For instance,
1) Are you contrasting 'specific instances' (of non-simmed Blackjack) with sims of billions of hands?
2) What is an example of a 'one off situation?'
3) What did you mean about 'blending in the time taken to find them.'?

Thanks.

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Generally, I want to look at your hourly rates and risk as opposed to if a certain situation occurs, what is the possible gain.

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Hole carding and next carding advantages could be computed with a CA that computes the ev for any dealer/player hand composition. I think k_c's and mine are capable of doing that. I have attached some old work of mine that calculates the advantage of always steering a 10 to a dealer's hand.

https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aps8eamZWeC1a6dy...QziAY?e=b1VbYc

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