Questions about Player Advantage and 'Next Card is An Ace' Math

[James989]

Don and James, thanks for taking the time to reply. What I mean is that whenever (absolutely whenever) a 6 is on the felt, the very next card dealt (or about to be dealt out of the shoe as the first card of the next round if a 6 card was the last card of a round) will be an Ace. I can be playing alone at the table, or with any number of people.

For example, walking up to a table with 4 players, I am talking about seeing the 6s on the felt and looking at the card on the felt that the dealer set down (or is about to set down if she is dealing the current round) that follows each of those 6s and predicting it will be an Ace. We know that in the long run, the math tell us that we have a 1/13 chance of seeing an Ace after each 6 (without regard for card composition that has already been dealt). I am hoping to be able to predict an Ace with slightly greater than a 1/13 likelihood.

Hope this clarifies. A simpler way to look at it would be to thumb through 2 decks with the cards not face up (like a double deck shoe waiting to be dealt). First card is a 3, next card is a 4, next card is a 6, hopefully next card is an Ace, next card is a Q, next card is a 3, next card is a 6, hopefully next card is an Ace, next card is a 9, next card is a K, next card is a Q, etc. Hope I didn't make it more confusing just now.

Please answer both questions about 6s and 10s.

Agree with GMAN, I guess you're playing a S17 game with "WEAK" cards shuffling procedures, so you can predict the ACE when the last card is "6" or "T".


In an ideal situation, suppose the last card of the last round was "6", then what is the probability that the next card(1st card of first hand in next round) is an ACE ? higher than 1/13 ? 1/9 ? 1/8 ?

Assuming probability is 1/9, meaning that ACE will be WITHIN next 9 cards of the shoe ? So you should bet 4 hands in next round in order to catch that ACE ?

I think it can be simulated if you know the correct probability.