Bust Bonus side bet

[21forme]

aceside - I think you are confusing the various bust bonus side bets. You bet one of them AFTER you see the dealer's up card and the number of cards don't matter. All that matters is a suited or non-suited bust. Other versions pay based on the number of cards in the dealer's hand and the bet is placed prior to the hand being dealt.

Note for Norm - I haven't updated to V6 yet, but on the side bet version where the payout is based on the dealer's up card and whether or not the hand is suited, and bet placed after the cards are dealt, I hope you noticed that the rules read the player must have an active hand to bet this, meaning if the player busts or has a BJ, a bet can't be placed by the player.

[aceside]

21forme, I’m pretty sure I am not confusing all these bust blackjack side bets. For this particular one, I’ve got some idea how to do it.

[Norm]

Note for Norm - I haven't updated to V6 yet, but on the side bet version where the payout is based on the dealer's up card and whether or not the hand is suited, and bet placed after the cards are dealt, I hope you noticed that the rules read the player must have an active hand to bet this, meaning if the player busts or has a BJ, a bet can't be placed by the player.

Yes. The side bet definition now in V6 matches Shack's numbers.

[aceside]

Here you go!

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

Dog Hand

Hi Dog Hand,
I have carefully learned into your CVData simulation results but found a couple of problems:

#1. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows an Ace upcard is about 14%. This is way too small. When the dealer has an ace up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. This peeking action will bring the bust rate to about 20%. Can you help sim this bust rate as a function of TC again?

#2. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows a 10 upcard is about 21%. This is small too. When you simmed, did you force the dealer to complete her hands?

Thank you in advance.

[21forme]

Hi Dog Hand,
I have carefully learned into your CVData simulation results but found a couple of problems:

#1. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows an Ace upcard is about 14%. This is way too small. When the dealer has an ace up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. This peeking action will bring the bust rate to about 20%. Can you help sim this bust rate as a function of TC again?

#2. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows a 10 upcard is about 21%. This is small too. When you simmed, did you force the dealer to complete her hands?

Thank you in advance.

It's rude to dispute a well-respected math wiz off the cuff and without any proof. How do you come up with your conclusions that it's "too small"? Show your work!

BTW, you do realize that for an Ace to bust, it requires a minimum of 4 cards?

[aceside]

I dare not dispute anybody here, but these numbers are crucial for beating this game. You guys are all my mentors. Apparently Norm has put a lot of work into this side bet. I do realize the point you brought up.

[aceside]

ow do you come up with your conclusions that it's "too small"? Show your work!

When the dealer has an ace up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. After this peeking, the dealer bust rate is 20.07% for an infinite deck and 20.11% for an 8-deck shoe.

When the dealer has a 10 up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. After this peeking, the dealer bust rate is 22.98% for an infinite deck and 23.01% for an 8-deck shoe.

How do these two numbers vary with the HiLo TC? We need help from Dog Hand or Norm.

[21forme]

We need help from Dog Hand or Norm.

Norm has already helped. CVCx V6 will sim the side bet. That's all you need. Buy the software if this side bet interests you.

[aceside]

Norm has already helped. CVCx V6 will sim the side bet. That's all you need. Buy the software if this side bet interests you.

I am not good at using softwares. I do everything on excel though. I need help simulating this.

[DSchles]

When the dealer has an ace up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. After this peeking, the dealer bust rate is 20.07% for an infinite deck and 20.11% for an 8-deck shoe.

While your bust value of 23.0% for the ten up is correct, the above is wrong. It's much too high. Dealer bust rate for the Ace after peeking, in 8-deck, is a bit less than 17%. I think it's something like 16.7%.

Don

[aceside]

While your bust value of 23.0% for the ten up is correct, the above is wrong. It's much too high. Dealer bust rate for the Ace after peeking, in 8-deck, is a bit less than 17%. I think it's something like 16.7%.

Don

The number 16.7% is good for stand-17 games, but the numbers I listed should be good for hit-17 games. I actually have got some ideas on how to calculate the dealer bust rate as a function of TC.

[21forme]

I am not good at using softwares. I do everything on excel though. I need help simulating this.

CVcX is easier than Excel. Learn how to use softwares (sic), rather than continuing to post your never-ending comedy of errors.

[aceside]

CVcX is easier than Excel. Learn how to use softwares (sic), rather than continuing to post your never-ending comedy of errors.

I recently played this bust bonus side bet and have verified this bet is countable. However, I need more math to confirm this. I believe both K_C and Cacarulo can easily calculate this:

Consider a 6-deck h-17 game. When 208 cards were dealt out (thus 104 cards are remaining) and the HiLo true count is TC=+10, what is the probability of each dealer’s upcard?

When 208 cards were dealt out (thus 104 cards are remaining) and the HiLo true count is TC=-10, what is the probability of each dealer’s upcard?

Thank you in advance!