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Thread: Bust Bonus side bet

  1. #1


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    Bust Bonus side bet

    I'm trying to set up the Bust Bonus side bet on CVData to see if there's some crazy high count where it's profitable to take the bet against certain up cards, but I don't think I'm setting it up correctly. To start, I'm just using basic strategy and flat betting to simplify the set up process.

    We can make the bet after the dealer shows their up card, so the house edge is different against different up cards. The best house edge is against an 8, but that's harder to set up, so I'm starting with an A. The bet is won if the dealer busts, and it pays differently if the bust is suited or non-suited. Here's the pay table:

    Bust Bonus Pay table.png

    In CVData, I have to set up payoffs for an unsuited bust and a suited bust separately:

    Bust Bonus Unsuited A.png

    Bust Bonus Suited A.png

    Since I'm only analyzing the times when the dealer's up card is an A, I have to set up 9 more payoffs to push against all the other dealer up cards. I attached one of those below, but I did enough testing to be confident that the issue isn't there, and it's probably with the above payoffs.

    Bust Bonus push against 2.png

    I believe there's an issue because after running 3 billion hands, the EV was -4.413%, and against an A, it's supposed to be -9.05% for a 6 deck game according to Wizard of Odds:

    Bust Bonus House Edge.jpg

    Here are the rules of the actual blackjack game:
    6 decks
    Dealer hits on a soft 17
    Doubling after splitting allowed
    Resplitting aces allowed
    No surrender
    4.6/6 decks

    Any ideas as to why my house edge is different?

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    If it's the Bust Bonus I'm thinking of, click Load and select Bust Bonus Side Bet. If that's not it; I need all the rules.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  3. #3


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    It's probably the one you're thinking of. It just pays whenever the dealer busts, but differently for suited vs. unsuited. Wizard of Odds talks about the game here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...ts/bust-bonus/

    When I click load, I don't see it there. These are all the side bets that I see:

    CVData side bets.jpg

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Hmm. I'll look into why it wasn't included.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  5. #5
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Sorry, side bet placed after the deal has started is not supported. I'll look at that would require.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  6. #6


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    It seems this side bet is countable. What are the probabilities of having 3-card, 4-card, 5-card… bust hands for each dealer upcard? Can anybody list them?

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    What are the probabilities of having 3-card, 4-card, 5-card… bust hands for each dealer upcard?
    What difference does that make?

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Sorry, side bet placed after the deal has started is not supported. I'll look at that would require.
    I had a feeling that was the case. I think my workaround of getting my money back against all cards that are not an ace would isolate the times that I made the side bet against an A. I just can't seem to get payoffs against an A right. Let me know if you come up with a solution.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    It seems this side bet is countable. What are the probabilities of having 3-card, 4-card, 5-card… bust hands for each dealer upcard? Can anybody list them?
    I think you've got this side bet mixed up with a different one. All the matters is whether or not the dealer busts, not how many cards it took to get there. I'm hopeful that this bet is countable at least when the dealer is showing an 8 as that has the lowest house edge.

  10. #10


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    Somewhere in Norm's millions of online charts and graphs is a chart of bust percentage by count. IIRC, 5 and 6 bust greater than 50% of the time at TC >= +10.

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