Assume a 6 deck, S17, DAS, Spilt only once, One card on Aces, and No Surrender blackjack game. Shuffle after every hand. I am presently playing for a $1,000 bonus and not doing the best. The rules require the bonus plus your deposit to be played thru 10 times. ($1,000 deposit + $1,000 bonus = $2,000)
Then if you play it on blackjack your play only counts at 20%. Bottom line is you have to run thru $100,000 to get the bonus.

I have already played 70% through on my way to the bonus, but I only have $1,400 left out of the $2,000 I started with. Does this seem unusual. I figure at $70,000 play-thru I should have lost only about $350 or about 0.5% house edge. Any insight to help me. I do have CVCX. any suggestions on how to best sim this.

By the way DraftKing in MI is offering a higher roller bonus. They will match deposit up to $20,000. I believe it has the same rules as above. It will require play of $2,000,000. but if my calculations are in the ball park. This has an expected value of $10,000 for the player. Any thoughts on this?