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Thread: Flat Bettor Question Regarding 'Eligible' Cards To Be Chosen in a Sim

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    Flat Bettor Question Regarding 'Eligible' Cards To Be Chosen in a Sim

    Hello all,

    1) Do sims (e.g., Norm's software) usually draw cards from the entire set of remaining unplayed cards in a shoe (e.g., 6 finite decks - Strip rules), or just from those unplayed cards 'located' before the cut card?

    2) I ask because it would seem the answer has E.V. implications, however small, for the flat bettor.

    It seems to me that a sim 'choosing' cards from ALL remaining unplayed cards (vs. from just those unplayed cards located before the cut card) would yield a slightly better flat bettor E.V. Or perhaps I am mistaken?

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    CVData and CVCX randomly shuffle and then use cards starting from the top. CVData can also use a fairly simple casino shuffle. CVData/ST allows detailed definition of the shuffle.

    That aside, if you use the random shuffle it doesn't matter at all from where the cards are selected. Using a defined shuffle will rarely make a difference. Although, it is possible to make a shuffle that would affect results somewhat. Such existed once in Atlantic City decades ago.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

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    To clarify...

    Thanks for the quick reply, Norm.

    Just to be sure I am understanding: Following the random shuffle of your software, cards are chosen "off the top," but does that mean that those cards are specifically located (virtually) solely in front of the cut card, as is the case with a casino machine (random) shuffle with a shoe, or does that mean that the cards chosen off the top are members of both sets of cards: those located virtually before AND AFTER the cut card.

    Of course, there is a difference. As we know, as is the case with a machine shuffled casino shoe, there are indeed cards that are not physically capable of being accessed by the dealer because they are located behind the cut card.

    Is the following comparison accurate:

    Flat Bettor A, casino example:
    Cards that are eligible to be 'in play':
    A, 5, 2, Q, Q, 6 located before the cut card.
    Cards ineligible to be in play:
    K, Q, Q, 5, 7, 2, 4, 10, 10, 10, 10 located after the cut card.

    Flat Bettor B, computer sim (as I understand from your post, Norm) example:
    Cards that are eligible to be 'in play' (even though play will still cease once the specified number of cards played out prior to the cut card is reached):
    A, 5, 2, Q, Q, 6, K, Q, Q, 5, 7, 2, 4, 10, 10, 10, 10?

    Norm, if you and I are 'on the same page' thus far, are you indeed saying that Players A and B will have virtually identical E.V.'s over the course of billions of rounds? So, having a greater number of eligible cards (when the composition of those cards is rich in tens and Aces, for instance) to be chosen from does not give the player an advantage (due to the fact that the player, not the dealer, always receives the first card)? Does the number of decks impact the E.V. in the above comparison?

    Thanks in advance. Sorry if I am belaboring ("Overkill") the issue.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    By off the top, I mean as a dealer in a casino would deal. They will be dealt from the first card in the shoe until the end of the round in which the cut card is reached. But, if they were dealt randomly from the pile or in the reverse order, the average EV results would be the same.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

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    Thanks, Norm.

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