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Thread: Officially Done with blackjack

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Daniels View Post
    I've come to the conclusion that my problem may just be discipline. I've been down $600.00 to finally work out with $200.00 or $300.00. So I find it difficult to leave the table until my session bankroll is depleted. I also worry that if I quit too early, my win rate will surfer some.
    That's an amateurish way to play. If you play without great emotion, and you keep your sessions typically short and the SAME length, there's no reason whatsoever that you average loss should exceed your average win. You're playing with an edge. If you play the same amount of hands every session, your average win, BY DEFINITION, will be greater than your average loss. And you will also win slightly more sessions than you lose.

    This, of course, rules out "stop losses," waiting until you're ahead to quit, and other voodoo methods of playing.

    Don

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    This is beyond my pizza delivery boy abilities to comprehend.......
    Seems so

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    That's an amateurish way to play. If you play without great emotion, and you keep your sessions typically short and the SAME length, there's no reason whatsoever that you average loss should exceed your average win. You're playing with an edge. If you play the same amount of hands every session, your average win, BY DEFINITION, will be greater than your average loss. And you will also win slightly more sessions than you lose.

    This, of course, rules out "stop losses," waiting until you're ahead to quit, and other voodoo methods of playing.

    Don
    A typical sim (though not always true) whereby final shoe with a negative count stops exactly at the 60 minute mark, and final shoe with a positive count goes to the end of said shoe (let’s say a 65 minute shoe) - all things being equal - typical competent counter will win 60% of the time.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Manipulating your win and loss rates or whatever you are talking about shouldn't affect your average win rate, which is all I care about.
    Im not talking about manipulating win rates, rather a style of play designed to maximize revenue over the long haul. This initially requires a grasp of concepts to which I have previously alluded to. To this end, an open mind to new ideas is required.

    That being said, understanding the concepts is one thing - being able to execute is another. A closed mind such as yours being unable to grasp concepts will continue to relegate you to the ranks of the mediocre - regardless of your self proclaimed superior abilities.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Im not talking about manipulating win rates, rather a style of play designed to maximize revenue over the long haul. This initially requires a grasp of concepts to which I have previously alluded to. To this end, an open mind to new ideas is required.

    That being said, understanding the concepts is one thing - being able to execute is another. A closed mind such as yours being unable to grasp concepts will continue to relegate you to the ranks of the mediocre - regardless of your self proclaimed superior abilities.
    I am lost trying to understand what you are getting at with this style of play stuff? I just rock it up when i have an edge and go soft when the casino has the edge and try to maximize the hours of play. My only concern is am i getting a good game and if i continue to play is it likely to continue? Wins/losses at the moment are not even in the ether - other than to know where i am wrt to CTR and how i managed to address it. What is it about your style of play that you feel alters the outcome?

    Thanks


    Cohiba

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cohiba View Post
    I am lost trying to understand what you are getting at with this style of play stuff? I just rock it up when i have an edge and go soft when the casino has the edge and try to maximize the hours of play. My only concern is am i getting a good game and if i continue to play is it likely to continue? Wins/losses at the moment are not even in the ether - other than to know where i am wrt to CTR and how i managed to address it. What is it about your style of play that you feel alters the outcome?

    Thanks


    Cohiba
    Three things actually. The first is actually pretty straight forward and depending on the context of your comments, may be something you purposely practice as well.


    You said - I just rock it up when i have an edge and go soft when the casino has the edge and try to maximize the hours of play. My only concern is am i getting a good game and if i continue to play is it likely to continue
    First, I may be wrong, but I construe your comments as being that your style is non robotic, that you maximize your overall revenue not necessarily by knocking it out of the park on any particular session, but that you maximize your revenue over a number of sessions. This also suggests to me, if I’m correct, that your bankroll is in the solid range, that you abide by Kelly principles in general but not strictly by actual advantage to actual bankroll.

    Second (which leads into the third), I use an upper and lower ramp betting scheme within the same shoe which, in the lower true counts varies simply to mix it up, and in the higher true counts shifts between the ramps depending on factors.

    Third, those factors being my own little twist - QTC or Quality of True Count. Here’s a link which explains it. It is tough to do.

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...hlight=Quality

  7. #20


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    Freightman:

    Actually my bet ramp is quite simple - bet as high as i think i can get away with when i have the edge and as low as possible when the house has the edge. I am not focused on ROR as practical casino bet limits (posted or what they will tolerate) make ROR a very low number. That said i do want to know 1) how much i can make with an approach, and 2) variance - so i have an idea how long i need to dick around on a game to hit NO. Depending on other factors I may slash and burn a game or gently milk it over time.

    WRT to the quality count you describe - i am not following the logic. EORs are well published for all card values so just keep track of every card if you would like. Published count systems offer a compromise between simplicity and EV. FYI - you can enter tag values or keep a side count with CV Data and run a sim to assess how well your approach works. Anyhow thanks for the follow-up - good luck.

    Cohiba

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cohiba View Post
    Freightman:

    Actually my bet ramp is quite simple - bet as high as i think i can get away with when i have the edge and as low as possible when the house has the edge. I am not focused on ROR as practical casino bet limits (posted or what they will tolerate) make ROR a very low number. That said i do want to know 1) how much i can make with an approach, and 2) variance - so i have an idea how long i need to dick around on a game to hit NO. Depending on other factors I may slash and burn a game or gently milk it over time.

    WRT to the quality count you describe - i am not following the logic. EORs are well published for all card values so just keep track of every card if you would like. Published count systems offer a compromise between simplicity and EV. FYI - you can enter tag values or keep a side count with CV Data and run a sim to assess how well your approach works. Anyhow thanks for the follow-up - good luck.

    Cohiba
    So, max EV. Requires very sturdy bankroll to withstand variance. Not my style in any event. Also fair to say that N0 is not a major consideration for me. Major reason is that I don’t require BJ to pay bills. My approach may well be different if it did.

    Now, as for your comment on EOR’s, Norm gave me some static on that a while back. I really don’t think I explained it well - so I’ll give it another shot.

    EOR’s define our count systems. EOR’s for hi lo, 7,8,9’s basically cancel out each other. The 6 would provide an approx +1. When I speak of evaluating intermediates, I don’t double count the EOR’s, in other words, the tag values. They are already evaluated in the primary count. What is evaluated is the proportion of intermediates to high value cards. That proportion is what defines QTC, and further defines the ramp that I choose to play. I’m still at +3 or +4 or whatever, but in what ramp?

    A simple exercise to demo this. A 6 deck shoe with exactly 26 cards to bottom of shoe. RC is +5, TC is 10. Hi Lo is easiest to demo - so how many different combinations of 23456, 789, face and ace are there to achieve True 10. How many of those True 10’s aren’t worth insuring. How many of those True 10’s aren’t even close to justifying a max bet.

    Play with that for a while.

  9. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    ...

    A simple exercise to demo this. A 6 deck shoe with exactly 26 cards to bottom of shoe. RC is +5, TC is 10. Hi Lo is easiest to demo - so how many different combinations of 23456, 789, face and ace are there to achieve True 10. How many of those True 10’s aren’t worth insuring. How many of those True 10’s aren’t even close to justifying a max bet.

    Play with that for a while.
    This makes me more confused. Earlier I solved your quiz on insurance decisions but it used the neutral cards of 789, but in your FBM count system, you partition all cards into three different groups, high 10JQKA, medium 6789, low 2345. Then you bet two boxes with different betting ramps. Can you explain how you keep all the counts for these three card groups? Also, can you explain why you need two hands with different ramps? Are you using the two piles of chips to keep different counts? Do you need a collaborator to help count cards?

  10. #23


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    This makes me more confused
    Apparently, not a difficult mission

    Earlier I solved your quiz on insurance decisions but it used the neutral cards of 789,
    Simply a portion of the regaled FBM ASC. Just the 9. Halves 6 deck threshold is TC 3.4 which already incorporates the 9. Ace density allows you adjust threshold up or down.

    Then you bet two boxes with different betting ramps.
    Where did I ever say that. Further, I’ve said for years (with occasional exception) that I play 1 hand only when heads up. Upper or lower ramp is a decision made based on QTC, but still only 1 hand played. Interesting conclusions can be drawn by approximating 2/3 and 1/3 respectively of lower ramp to higher ramp hands played. I’ve given so many clues, it’s ridiculous. Can anyone take a stab at it.

  11. #24


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    Simply a portion of the regaled FBM ASC. Just the 9. Halves 6 deck threshold is TC 3.4 which already incorporates the 9. Ace density allows you adjust threshold up or down.
    Should add that QTC should be factored into the equation. EG. Easy to not insure TC 4.0 with lousy QTC

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Should add that QTC should be factored into the equation. EG. Easy to not insure TC 4.0 with lousy QTC
    I believe I have got a little more hint of your FBM. Your high cards are 910JQKA, low cards 234567, and neutral 8. To calculate your QTC, you need to count 8m1.5*9m2A for insurance. Approximately, you just use m2A for QTC. Is this on the right track?
    Last edited by aceside; 05-18-2021 at 01:00 PM.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I believe I have got a little more hint of your FBM. Your high cards are 910JQKA, low cards 234567, and neutral 8. To calculate your QTC, so you need count 8m0.5*9m2A for insurance. Approximately, you just use m2A for QTC. Is this on the right track?
    Kinda sorta possibly maybe on the right track, but off. Also, I never did bother to learn BJAnalyst crypto talk, so, if you could decipher 8m0.5*9m2A and m2A, I’ll respond further.

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