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Thread: How was your first counting experience?

  1. #1


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    How was your first counting experience?

    Hey y'all, just felt like sharing my experience as a new counter who's been getting crushed so far.

    Let me also preface this by saying I've put in my time (200+ hours at a conservative estimate) off the felt and I'm confident I'm playing a winning game. This also isn't a whining post.

    Over the last year I've been saving up a bankroll of $10,000 (replenishable) to take a shot at counting. So far it hasn't quite gone as planned:

    Session 1: -$443 (8 hours)
    Session 2: -$210 (3 hours)
    Session 3: -$687.50 (4 hours)
    Session 4: -$1557.50 (1.5 hours)

    Overall: -$2898 (16.5 hours)

    I made a couple mistakes in my first session (Nobody told me that when you double they can place the card face down, and I forgot to account for it a couple times lol) but I've played pretty on point aside from that. I spread 1:20 on a $10 minimum 6D H17 DAS RSA NS game and 1:10 on a $15 minimum DD H17 DAS RSA NS game, both with amazing penetration. I use HiLo, half deck estimations (quarter for DD), and the deviations as found on the BJA app. That leaves me with an average RoR of something around 10% which I'm willing to stomach for higher EV, and unfortunately I'm trending towards busto. I went into this accepting that I may well lose every dime in my bankroll, so weirdly I'm at peace with my losses. The only thing that frustrates me is that I may not be able to play anymore for a while if I were to lose my whole bankroll. Obviously I'm sure more experienced counters have gone on much larger and longer downswings, but it's been quite the inaugural experience. If only my real bankroll was looking like my BJA app bankroll

    How were your first experiences counting?

  2. #2


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    One of my dearest friends, and one of the most successful counters I knew, lost the first ten sessions he played! Needless to say, things turned, and he never looked back. Hang in there and trust the math.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    One of my dearest friends, and one of the most successful counters I knew, lost the first ten sessions he played! Needless to say, things turned, and he never looked back. Hang in there and trust the math.

    Don
    Now THAT takes an impressive mentality! Hopefully I end up with a similar story (well, without all ten losing sessions)

  4. #4
    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Hi. I assume your max bets are in the range of 150-200$? If so, going on a close to 10k losing streak isnt out of the ordinary. Just continue playing. Get a doordash job if you need to replenish ur bank.

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    To reduce flux, bet a single bet when they have the edge and bet 2 hands when you do. If you're max bet is 1 hand of 200$ then doing 2 hands of 150$ is the same EV but reduced variance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    If you're [your] max bet is 1 hand of 200$ then doing 2 hands of 150$ is the same EV but reduced variance.
    No, sorry, that's not true. Unless you're alone at the table, two hands of $150 will be MORE e.v., MORE variance, and the SAME risk of ruin as one hand of $200. Essentially, you bet the two hands to increase profits while keeping risk of ruin the same as the equivalent one-hand bet.

    Don

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, sorry, that's not true. Unless you're alone at the table, two hands of $150 will be MORE e.v., MORE variance, and the SAME risk of ruin as one hand of $200. Essentially, you bet the two hands to increase profits while keeping risk of ruin the same as the equivalent one-hand bet.

    Don
    Dear Don,

    From Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ":

    Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many Bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros as a rule always play two hands when they have the edge and only one hand when they don't.

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Reduced variance, not risk. To me variance = fluctuations

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Dear Don,

    From Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ":

    Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many Bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros as a rule always play two hands when they have the edge and only one hand when they don't.

    Thanks for the lesson. When Snyder says how much he meant by "smaller amounts," get back to me. Meanwhile, what I wrote to you is precisely correct.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Reduced variance, not risk. To me variance = fluctuations
    I'll repeat one last time: the variance from playing two hands of $150 is greater than the variance from playing one hand of $200. Period.

    Don

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Dear Don,

    From Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ":

    Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many Bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros as a rule always play two hands when they have the edge and only one hand when they don't.
    Playing multiple hands simultaneously doesn't low variance. It increases expected value and therefore lowers N0. I think the reason why playing multiple hands simultaneously cut fluctuations is because it decreases N0. A lower N0 requires less hands to be played to be ahead by one standard deviation. N0 is variance/(expected value)^2.
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 05-15-2021 at 10:42 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Playing multiple hands simultaneously doesn't low variance. It increases expected value and therefore lowers N0. I think the reason why playing multiple hands simultaneously cut fluctuations is because it decreases N0. A lower N0 requires less hands to be played to be ahead by one standard deviation. N0 is variance/(expected value)^2.
    I believe the blackjack theory has been flawed for many years, especially on the EV part. Let me use real numbers to demonstrate this flaw.

    Firstly, consider negative EV:
    For one hand, variance=1.3 and EV=-0.5%;
    For two hands, variance=[2X1.3+2X(2-1)X0.48]=3.6 and EV=-0.5%.

    Secondly, consider positive EV:
    For one hand, variance=1.3 and EV=+0.5%;
    For two hands, variance=[2X1.3+2X(2-1)X0.48]=3.6 and EV=+0.5%.

    The expected value of two-hand is Not equal to two times the expected value of one-hand. The math applies to the situation when a blackjack table is packed with 6 players when TC=+2 and thus players' advantage=+1.0%; however, each of these 6 players only has an advantage of +1.0%/6=+0.17%. Too small!. That is why I'd not count card when the table is packed.

  13. #13
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Please don't force me to send threads to the disadvantage forum. If you want to post crazy non-math, do it to the disadvantage forum yourself. More players actually increases your advantage slightly, assuming you are at third base.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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