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Thread: Does the house worry about card-counters who are losing?

  1. #27
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Which is why CVCX leaves that result field blank on a negative expectation game. N0 has no meaning in such -- at least for our purposes.
    Last edited by Norm; 05-08-2021 at 05:43 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  2. #28


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    I disagree about N0 having no purpose for negative expectation games. For positive expectation games, N0 is useful for quantifying "the long run". i.e. calculating the probability that you will be ahead after a given number of rounds played. It is equally useful to show those playing negative expectation games the probability that they will behind and, conversely, the shrinking possibility that they will still be ahead after a given number of rounds played.

    At videopoker.com, I used N0 to show those who claimed that a human player can never reach "the long run" in terms of playing at a negative expectation that they easily can.

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I disagree about N0 having no purpose for negative expectation games. For positive expectation games, N0 is useful for quantifying "the long run". i.e. calculating the probability that you will be ahead after a given number of rounds played. It is equally useful to show those playing negative expectation games the probability that they will behind and, conversely, the shrinking possibility that they will still be ahead after a given number of rounds played.

    At videopoker.com, I used N0 to show those who claimed that a human player can never reach "the long run" in terms of playing at a negative expectation that they easily can.
    Well, sure. The idea can work in reverse for negative-e.v. games. The longer you play, the surer it is that you will be ruined. And, in the short run, anything can and will happen. Technically, if you overbet Kelly by more than a factor of two, just about everyone will be ruined, but one lucky SOB might still win all the money in the world. It just isn't a very intelligent bet to be making.

    Don

  4. #30
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    As I said, "at least for our purposes".
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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