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Thread: Card Counter's Advantage Tipping Point in Hypothetical Casino Cheating Scenario

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Card Counter's Advantage Tipping Point in Hypothetical Casino Cheating Scenario

    I'm not sure if there has ever been a study completed on this but I believe it to be an appropriate question with practical relevance to card counters.

    Assuming a casino is cheating by removing aces or tens, at which cheating point (how many removals of high cards) on a SD, DD, 6D, and 8D game would the advantage a proficient card counter has vanish entirely and give the card counter a -EV game?

    Is there a combination of cards removed from the deck by a cheating casino that would still not completely nullify the card counter's advantage?

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    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Not to overstate the obvious, but a casino cannot remove too many cards because patrons would no doubt quickly observe.

    On pitch games removal of more than one ace or ten would probably be too risky. Does removal of just one ten or ace destroy the advantage?

    On shoe games removal of many more tens and aces would be required due to the increased number of decks than on a pitch game. Again, how many cards would be required to remove the advantage to a card counter? It seems from simply eyeballing it removal of 1 or 2 high cards on a shoe game would not destroy the advantage of a card counter, thought it would lower it appreciably........

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    There are ways the casino can cheat legally and it is not preferential shuffling or removing cards . Prism shoe( clear shoebox) is one , dealing seconds , there is ONE WAY OF CHEATING BY THE CASINO that you need to think about but i won't say it here.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    I'm not sure if there has ever been a study completed
    Easy study to perform. Don't think it would be a great idea to publish it.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    I'm not sure if there has ever been a study completed on this but I believe it to be an appropriate question with practical relevance to card counters.

    Assuming a casino is cheating by removing aces or tens, at which cheating point (how many removals of high cards) on a SD, DD, 6D, and 8D game would the advantage a proficient card counter has vanish entirely and give the card counter a -EV game?

    Is there a combination of cards removed from the deck by a cheating casino that would still not completely nullify the card counter's advantage?
    This is very easy to find out. If the HiLo true count is -2 and below, most counters would probably be discouraged, meaning a removal of two tens per deck. However, what I noticed is that the main problem of casino cheating is on hand shuffled shoes, not on ASMs. ASMs cannot cheat because they can indicate which card is missing on their screens. For hand shuffled shoes, many experienced dealer may intentionally collect big cards together and do not shuffle them, causing players to lose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    a casino cannot remove too many cards because patrons would no doubt quickly observe.
    Sure they can. In an 8D shoe game, who is going to notice? And it's not simply removing Ts and As; it's replacing them with 5s and 6s.

    I've been on several cruises where this was done. It's a simple matter to count down a number of shoes and when they all end significantly positive, the conclusion is obvious.

    Beating a game like this would be like beating 6:5 BJ by counting. Simply not worth it.

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    OP implies he’s willing to play a reduced EV provided he knows the maximum extent of the cheat. Notwithstanding reduced EV, increased variance, who’s to say the house is not employing more than 1 cheating scheme in the same shoe. That being said, who’s to say OP or anyone can adjust betting strategy on the fly.

    That last comment does not mean to conflict with adjusting ramps on the fly depending on cut on honest shoes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Easy study to perform. Don't think it would be a great idea to publish it.
    if easy to perform, perhaps selected distribution.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Sure they can. In an 8D shoe game, who is going to notice? And it's not simply removing Ts and As; it's replacing them with 5s and 6s.

    I've been on several cruises where this was done. It's a simple matter to count down a number of shoes and when they all end significantly positive, the conclusion is obvious.

    Beating a game like this would be like beating 6:5 BJ by counting. Simply not worth it.
    Agreed. I suspected 1 store of cheating. I decided to compile data for gaming. I can’t reveal to much, except to say the otherwise so called honest game (they are also employing a deviation not authorized by gaming which doubles house edge on a particular side bet) requires a certain level of approval. That level of approval not being there on my last sojourn, allowed me to rack up a pretty decent win, curtailed by typical countermeasures ordered by the head sniveler on site.

    The inference being that the exercise must be authorized, at certain betting levels and above, and for certain known individuals only.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    if easy to perform, perhaps selected distribution.
    Is "selected distribution" your word to avoid saying "clumping"?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Is "selected distribution" your word to avoid saying "clumping"?
    Selected distribution means distribution to vetted individuals.

    Did you mean clump or Klump. Klumps in action can be defined by the following link.

    https://youtu.be/B52L95xRYFs

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Easy study to perform. Don't think it would be a great idea to publish it.
    Standard part of CVData.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Not sure why you would play in a casino that feels comfortable enough to cheat in a manner that involves or leaves traces of physical evidence? Clearly they are not concerned about the local gaming authorities. Replacing cards in the shoe may end up being the least of your worries in this jurisdiction. That said why remove cards when you can just pay 6/5 on BJs?

    Cohiba

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