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Thread: Illustrious 18 - indexes

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Is there any possibility, remote as it may be, that, going forward, you might possibly think before you put your foot squarely in your mouth?
    I'll give you odds on that one, Don.

  2. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sigh. Is there any possibility, remote as it may be, that, going forward, you might possibly think before you put your foot squarely in your mouth? Is there any possibility that you'll show any kind of humility whatsoever, when discussing blackjack with some of the foremost authorities in the world, and entertain some restraint in trying to teach us one more ridiculously absurd theory after another?

    Don
    I just looked up the Stanford Wong PBJ book. It shows that for the hand of (7,7)vs8, the HiLo index of hit/splitting is TC>=+5 for a 4-deck s-17 shoe but TC>=-1 for a 1-deck s-17 shoe. This seemingly supports my argument of playing different indices at different levels of dealing depths for the same 8-deck shoe with a fixed penetration of 7.5 decks.

  3. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    but I thought I'd bring up that fascinating fact, the index moving up or down dependent upon number of decks remaining with certain hands, whereas on others it doesn't.
    You have done research on this. Can you sort out which indices vary a lot with the number of decks remaining?

  4. #30
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I just looked up the Stanford Wong PBJ book. It shows that for the hand of (7,7)vs8, the HiLo index of hit/splitting is TC>=+5 for a 4-deck s-17 shoe but TC>=-1 for a 1-deck s-17 shoe. This seemingly supports my argument of playing different indices at different levels of dealing depths for the same 8-deck shoe with a fixed penetration of 7.5 decks.
    Oh no. It does nothing of the sort. Of course indices are different according to the total number of decks -- but not with remaining decks. If you start with four decks and have one left, the one left is still based on four decks.

    Example, what are the odds of getting a BJ? It's the odds of getting an ace then a ten plus the odds of getting a ten and an ace since either is a natural.

    Single-deck (52 cards, 4 aces and 16 tens): (4/52 * 16/51) + (16/52 * 4/51) = 0.04826546003
    Double-deck (104 cards, 8 aces and 32 tens): (8/104 * 32/103) + (32/104 * 8/103) = 0.04779686333

    Simple combinations. That's true at the start, middle, or end of the pile of cards.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    If you start with four decks and have one left, the one left is still based on four decks.
    This is exactly the part I disagree and have been pushing very hard.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I just looked up the Stanford Wong PBJ book. It shows that for the hand of (7,7)vs8, the HiLo index of hit/splitting is TC>=+5 for a 4-deck s-17 shoe but TC>=-1 for a 1-deck s-17 shoe. This seemingly supports my argument of playing different indices at different levels of dealing depths for the same 8-deck shoe with a fixed penetration of 7.5 decks.
    Card combination only matters on single deck in some cases. Multiple deck (2, 4, 6, 8D) indexes are almost identical because there are so many cards in the shoe so different card combination almost doesn't matter. For example, you only need to memorize the index 16 v 9 and don't need to memorize different indexes for AAT22 v 9 or 79 v 9. So Wong's books like all other BJ books just list two different index tables. One for single deck. And the other for multiple decks (applying to double decks, six decks and eight decks.) (Technically there are four kinds of tables because S17 and H17 indexes are different.)

  7. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Example, what are the odds of getting a BJ? It's the odds of getting an ace then a ten plus the odds of getting a ten and an ace since either is a natural.

    Single-deck (52 cards, 4 aces and 16 tens): (4/52 * 16/51) + (16/52 * 4/51) = 0.04826546003
    Double-deck (104 cards, 8 aces and 32 tens): (8/104 * 32/103) + (32/104 * 8/103) = 0.04779686333

    Simple combinations. That's true at the start or end of the pile of cards.
    For a 8-deck shoe, my practice in casinos has been like this: using different indices at different levels of dealing depths if the penetration was fixed at 7.5 decks. For example, when 7 decks of cards has been dealt, I would take insurance when the TC>=1.4 because I always treated the remaining decks as a new shoe.

  8. #34
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Suppose you have a deck of cards that consists of two cards, a two and a three. Suppose you have one deck and draw two cards. What are the odds of drawing a total of 5? Obviously 100%. Now suppose you have two decks, two twos and two threes. What are the odds of drawing two cards for a total of five? The possibilities:

    2 2 = 4
    2 3 = 5
    3 2 = 5
    3 3 = 6

    Your odds have dropped to 50%

    Now, for each of the four draws above, what will be the second hand? Well, there will only the two cards left:

    3 3 = 6
    3 2 or 2 3 =5
    3 2 or 2 3 =5
    2 2 = 4

    Still 50%.

    What matters is total decks, not remaining decks.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  9. #35
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    It rounds reasonable for now. Let me think about this. Thank you.

  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Card combination only matters on single deck in some cases. Multiple deck (2, 4, 6, 8D) indexes are almost identical because there are so many cards in the shoe so different card combination almost doesn't matter. For example, you only need to memorize the index 16 v 9 and don't need to memorize different indexes for AAT22 v 9 or 79 v 9. So Wong's books like all other BJ books just list two different index tables. One for single deck. And the other for multiple decks (applying to double decks, six decks and eight decks.) (Technically there are four kinds of tables because S17 and H17 indexes are different.)
    The remaining two or one decks of a shoe are always where I really gamble for a large amount. This is why I want to fine tune my skills to make them mathematically correct.

  11. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    This is exactly the part I disagree and have been pushing very hard.
    If my grandmother had balls, she’d be my grandfather. Flawed logic. I admire your ability to promote the ridiculous. Reminds me of a prior troller, I mean poster.

  12. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    The remaining two or one decks of a shoe are always where I really gamble for a large amount. This is why I want to fine tune my skills to make them mathematically correct.
    Norm has given you an argument. I'll give you a different one. Suppose you're using your strategy and indices for a six-deck game and, suddenly, the shoe drops on the floor and five decks spill out, leaving only one deck remaining in the shoe. Are you now suddenly playing a single-deck game? Do you understand how utterly ridiculous such an argument would be? Or, in similar fashion, if you held the six decks in your hands and, instead of dealing from the top, you turned the pack over and began dealing from the bottom deck only, would you now be playing single-deck blackjack? Oh!

    Nonetheless, there is an entirely different concept that is valid, and that is the basis for the floating advantage. If you are counting a shoe game, and you get to a point where only one deck is remaining, AND, you have a count of, say, zero, then your edge at that moment is, in fact, consistent with that of a single deck off the top. But this is a very different idea from the one that you have been espousing.

    Don

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    The remaining two or one decks of a shoe are always where I really gamble for a large amount. This is why I want to fine tune my skills to make them mathematically correct.
    They're proper strategies for dealing with this potentially profitable scenario. Of course, one must deal correctly with the preceding decks to maximize this scenario. Further, you can pump up your results by proper application of QTC - beyond your capabilities.

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