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Thread: Maximizing the advantages of early surrender

  1. #27


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    We're talking at cross-purposes. And, you aren't responding to what I'm writing. Suppose a six-deck game dealt to the five-deck level. You're providing a matrix of indices for the Hi-Lo player for standing. And, you're providing nothing but a RC at the 3-deck level, so let's say you come up with +12 for 15 vs. T. Are you now going to provide nine other RC's for nine other penetration levels for the ONE play? What's the point? Why don't you say the TC index is +4 and be done with it? How many indices do you want a player to learn for each holding?

    Don

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    We're talking at cross-purposes. And, you aren't responding to what I'm writing. Suppose a six-deck game dealt to the five-deck level. You're providing a matrix of indices for the Hi-Lo player for standing. And, you're providing nothing but a RC at the 3-deck level, so let's say you come up with +12 for 15 vs. T. Are you now going to provide nine other RC's for nine other penetration levels for the ONE play? What's the point? Why don't you say the TC index is +4 and be done with it? How many indices do you want a player to learn for each holding?

    Don
    Exact definition of true count is 52 * RC / (cards remaining). It is a ratio. The point of using true count is to standardize an index as much as possible to one value. True count can be varied by keeping running count constant and varying penetration. It also can be varied by keeping penetration constant and varying running count. My method is the latter. As penetration changes, true count of an index can vary but it does not generally vary very much except at the extremes. Does it make sense to compute a single deck index with 1 card remaining? 2 cards? 3 cards?.......50 cards? 51 cards? 52 cards? Which makes the most sense?

    As an afterthought, it seems you do no like that I'm displaying running counts, not true counts. Since both running count and cards remaining are known, the final step is to compute the true count. I'm not suggesting that the running count displayed applies to other values for cards remaining but the computed true count would.

    k_c
    Last edited by k_c; 03-22-2021 at 10:13 PM. Reason: Clarification

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by k_c View Post
    Exact definition of true count is 52 * RC / (cards remaining). It is a ratio. The point of using true count is to standardize an index as much as possible to one value. True count can be varied by keeping running count constant and varying penetration. It also can be varied by keeping penetration constant and varying running count. My method is the latter. As penetration changes, true count of an index can vary but it does not generally vary very much except at the extremes. Does it make sense to compute a single deck index with 1 card remaining? 2 cards? 3 cards?.......50 cards? 51 cards? 52 cards? Which makes the most sense?

    As an afterthought, it seems you do no like that I'm displaying running counts, not true counts. Since both running count and cards remaining are known, the final step is to compute the true count. I'm not suggesting that the running count displayed applies to other values for cards remaining but the computed true count would.

    k_c
    Does this have anything to do with "floating advantage?" Because when playing against "multiple decks" and lets say 11vX which my index is -6> If less than 4 decks have been dealt i will only double @ -5 or -4 depending on the amount of cards played. But IF for example 5 of the 6 decks have dealt i drop this index to -8. I also stand (stiffs)at lower True Counts (below the index)the earlier in the deck it is(hence higher RCs) and hit at higher Tcs(above the index) hence lower running counts the later in the deck it is. Any relation to what your saying here?
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  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Does this have anything to do with "floating advantage?" Because when playing against "multiple decks" and lets say 11vX which my index is -6> If less than 4 decks have been dealt i will only double @ -5 or -4 depending on the amount of cards played. But IF for example 5 of the 6 decks have dealt i drop this index to -8. I also stand (stiffs)at lower True Counts (below the index)the earlier in the deck it is(hence higher RCs) and hit at higher Tcs(above the index) hence lower running counts the later in the deck it is. Any relation to what your saying here?
    This doesn't make any sense. The difference in advantage between say, doubling 11 vs 10 at -5 vs -8 is about 4.5%
    No "floating advantage" point will ever make up for that difference.
    G Man

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    This doesn't make any sense. The difference in advantage between say, doubling 11 vs 10 at -5 vs -8 is about 4.5%
    No "floating advantage" point will ever make up for that difference.
    Obviously correct. Norm and I have already studied the concept of different indices for the same play at different shoe levels. The differences aren't worth discussing and surely not anything like what Jack is doing.

    Don

  6. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Does this have anything to do with "floating advantage?" Because when playing against "multiple decks" and lets say 11vX which my index is -6> If less than 4 decks have been dealt i will only double @ -5 or -4 depending on the amount of cards played. But IF for example 5 of the 6 decks have dealt i drop this index to -8. I also stand (stiffs)at lower True Counts (below the index)the earlier in the deck it is(hence higher RCs) and hit at higher Tcs(above the index) hence lower running counts the later in the deck it is. Any relation to what your saying here?
    I actually believe your thinking is reasonable. For multiple deck games, like 8-deck ones, the running count and the true count are very weak and hardly do any good except for guiding you wonging. We can think it as a global count. There is another count, the local count, that we must consider. That is the round running count, or the local slope of the running count. For the decision of 11vsX, I mostly watch the number of ten cards on the table to play.

  7. #33
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Aceside, forget you ever thought of that. It is negative EV.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Aceside, forget you ever thought of that. It is negative EV.
    I am not very confident about this particular technique I have been using and this is why I bring it up. But I found this technique is very effective for playing side bets.

  9. #35
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    No, it isn't.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  10. #36


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    Norm, I like you. You are a VERY polite person !
    G Man

  11. #37
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I don't want to get banned, as if I am, there will be no one to unban me.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  12. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I don't want to get banned, as if I am, there will be no one to unban me.
    Clearly, aceside is missing BJAnalyst, so he has decided to take up the slack.

    Don

  13. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Clearly, aceside is missing BJAnalyst, so he has decided to take up the slack.

    Don
    I am asking BJanalyst to be my mathematician and side bet analyst. He is very dedicated and determined to bring down the evil games. I really hope he can develop a seven-side-bet technique to beat Spanish 21.

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