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Thread: Don/other experts, How to find covariance of a game ?

  1. #81


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Yes, I agree with you 100%. I judge experts among experts. Just look at what Don S. says: “And while variance obviously increases with optimal bets on multiple simultaneous hands, so does e.v., by the same percentage, leaving risk of ruin the same.”

    This is faulty math, because this might be true for two or three hands, but definitely false for more hands.
    Are you planning on telling Brady how to throw a pass next?

  2. #82


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Are you planning on telling Brady how to throw a pass next?
    LOL! I'm thinking that, yes, there's a distinct possibility.

    Don

  3. #83


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    When we have multiple hands, we need to consider the covariance issue rigorously. I need to soften a little bit what I said earlier. Maybe you are right.

    The key to beat the game of blackjack is the bet spread. When you have multiple simultaneous hands, you will not have the correct spread to beat it.
    I realize you know more about this than novices like Stanford Wong or me, but just in case other readers on the forum, who aren't as bright as you, would like to read about the math, you can find the information in Wong's Pro BJ, pages 203-204 and pages 208-211, and then in BJA3, pages 24-26, where, of course, I basically say the same thing.

    Don

  4. #84
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    No it's not. It for Ace sequencing WHEN PLAYING ALONE WITH THE DEALER.

    Don't put words in Snyder's mouth. It is straight in the section about "steering the Aces" when doing sequential tracking of Aces.
    Have you lost the thread of the discussion? Where did you see the contradictions in my posts?
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  5. #85


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Are you planning on telling Brady how to throw a pass next?
    I'm impressed you know American football

  6. #86


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    I'm impressed you know American football
    HUUUUGE FAN my friend and long time Packers fan My second favorite sport. I always loved it, but I really got into the ins and outs of it in 2014 when I met Dan Gordon and started learning sports betting with him. I remember in 2016 I was in Aruba for the Superbowl between Denver and Carolina. I spent almost the entire day talking to dan because he was urging me to bet the line for denver (cant remember exactly but i think his trigger point was at +3 or something) and I kept telling him he was nuts. I honestly thought cam newton at that time was unstoppable. Not only I didnt listen to him, but during the game (at the hotel lobby packed with americans) I placed a live bet in favor of Carolina when they were down and the line went +. He had a pretty good laugh when I told him about the money I lost haha. That was a great day for him and his service.

    I miss him a lot and I always remember him when the football season starts.

  7. #87


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    "Never underestimate someone who overestimates themself."

  8. #88


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I realize you know more about this than novices like Stanford Wong or me, but just in case other readers on the forum, who aren't as bright as you, would like to read about the math, you can find the information in Wong's Pro BJ, pages 203-204 and pages 208-211, and then in BJA3, pages 24-26, where, of course, I basically say the same thing.

    Don
    Let me ask Dog Hand to do some simulations for me. Dog Hand has been a reputable mathematician. Can you help? Consider a six-deck shoe with strip rules. Below is the card counting strategy I propose to play solo:

    1. If TC<=+1, play one hand.
    2. If TC>+1 and Ace/Ten>0.25, play one hand.
    3. If TC>+1 and Ace/ten<=0.25, play two hands.

    Use the Kelley Criterion to dictate the bet size for one or two hands blackjack, that is, if the bet size is $100 for one-hand, the it is $75 for each hand of the two-hands. Can you help simulate this to find out if this strategy works or not?

  9. #89


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    You've left out the most critical piece of the puzzle: are you alone at the table or do you have others with you?

    As for Dog Hand, you're absolutely right: unlike me (!), he is, indeed, a reputable mathematician.

    Don

  10. #90


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    I miss him a lot and I always remember him when the football season starts.
    As you well know, me too!

    Don

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