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Thread: Don/other experts, How to find covariance of a game ?

  1. #71


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    + infinity
    Education is a rocky path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty.
    --Mark Twain

  2. #72


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    I know, but when he says this he is assuming that the alternative to playing one hand is playing multiple hands also with max bets out, and this is not the only alternative, since you can place your max bet in the box where you have the ace tracked and play minimum bets in all other boxes, either for steering purposes, or to cover that max bet by reducing the chance of the ace going to the dealer.
    This is something that every single sequencing team I've seen play does.
    If I can team up with somebody, I'll last a lot longer.

  3. #73
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    What Snyder meant was: When tracking a specific Ace, using key cards for location and alone with the dealer. If you're not 100% (and you rarely are) sure of the position the Ace will land, keep it simple and play only one hand. By doing this, you will "split the Aces" with the dealer, giving you an overall edge of approximately 9% on each of these trials.

    52% when you get it.
    -34% when the dealer gets it.
    This gives 18% on two trials for a net of 9% per trial.
    This scenario is closer to slug tracking with Aces than it is to sequencing technique in its purest form. I said this at once.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  4. #74


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    This scenario is closer to slug tracking with Aces than it is to sequencing technique in its purest form. I said this at once.
    I agree with you 100%. Thank you for your hard work.

  5. #75


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I agree with you 100%.
    Thank god. We were all on the edge of our seats waiting for your validation on the subject.

  6. #76


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Thank god. We were all on the edge of our seats waiting for your validation on the subject.
    lol

  7. #77


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    This scenario is closer to slug tracking with Aces than it is to sequencing technique in its purest form. I said this at once.
    No it's not. It for Ace sequencing WHEN PLAYING ALONE WITH THE DEALER.

    Don't put words in Snyder's mouth. It is straight in the section about "steering the Aces" when doing sequential tracking of Aces.
    G Man

  8. #78


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Thank god. We were all on the edge of our seats waiting for your validation on the subject.
    Yes, I agree with you 100%. I judge experts among experts. Just look at what Don S. says: “And while variance obviously increases with optimal bets on multiple simultaneous hands, so does e.v., by the same percentage, leaving risk of ruin the same.”

    This is faulty math, because this might be true for two or three hands, but definitely false for more hands.

  9. #79


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    This is faulty math, because this might be true for two or three hands, but definitely false for more hands.
    You are totally wrong with this. If you bet the correct amount taking covariance in account, your Ror will stay the same. Who the F.... are you to tell Don he does "faulty math" ?
    G Man

  10. #80


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    You are totally wrong with this. If you bet the correct amount taking covariance in account, your Ror will stay the same. Who the F.... are you to tell Don he does "faulty math" ?
    When we have multiple hands, we need to consider the covariance issue rigorously. I need to soften a little bit what I said earlier. Maybe you are right.

    The key to beat the game of blackjack is the bet spread. When you have multiple simultaneous hands, you will not have the correct spread to beat it.
    Last edited by aceside; 03-08-2021 at 08:25 AM.

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