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Thread: Don/other experts, How to find covariance of a game ?

  1. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Now come the real question for you two. I have been considering buying CVData and CVCX to guide me through betting on blackjack to become a real pro, but there is one thingn I am not confident about these two softwares. I always play two hands whenever I have an advantage in blackjack because I believe in the maximum expected return. I want these softwares to guide my bet spread when I play two hands simultaneously. Have your software considered the covariance issue and the bet spread for simultaneously two hands playing?
    what’s your approach - longevity or slash and burn. Regardless of your answer, your stated approach, especially at marginal plus counts with at least one table mate, you’ll be pegged quickly as a counter and robotic. Oh, and many with your thought process don’t understand the issue of buckets, and how to handle them.

    They’re far better strategies.

  2. #22


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    This is cool. Thank you.

  3. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    what’s your approach - longevity or slash and burn. Regardless of your answer, your stated approach, especially at marginal plus counts with at least one table mate, you’ll be pegged quickly as a counter and robotic. Oh, and many with your thought process don’t understand the issue of buckets, and how to handle them.

    They’re far better strategies.
    The problem for me is that no matter what approach I used, I could not recover the loss I had on blackjack. But I am not concerned about my bankroll, because it was small anyway. I need a revolution! That is why I joined this discussion for new approaches. I am not worried about being backed off, because I have a thick skin.

  4. #24


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    That is why I joined this discussion for new approaches. I am not worried about being backed off, because I have a thick skin.
    Who cares about a thick skin when you can have both longevity and superior results - Silly rabbit

    https://youtu.be/Q5Jnw4IsztU

  5. #25


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Who cares about a thick skin when you can have both longevity and superior results - Silly rabbit

    https://youtu.be/Q5Jnw4IsztU
    I have been thinking about the covariance problem because this is critically related to when to play two blackjack hands simultaneously. The issue here is that it is probably related to the Ace cards in the deck. Suppose we have a 6-deck shoe with the strip rules, if six Aces are removed from this shoe, will the covariance of two simultaneous hands become smaller? I am thinking that if the covariance becomes larger, I will play one hand, and if the covariance becomes smaller, I will play two hands whenever I have an advantage. Can anybody estimate the effect of removal on the covariance?
    Last edited by aceside; 03-04-2021 at 10:38 AM.

  6. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I have been thinking about the covariance problem because this is critically related to when to play two blackjack hands simultaneously. The issue here is that it is probably related to the Ace cards in the deck. Suppose we have a 6-deck shoe with the strip rules, if six Aces are removed from this shoe, will the covariance of two simultaneous hands become smaller? I am thinking that if the covariance becomes larger, I will play one hand, and if the covariance becomes smaller, I will play two hands whenever I have an advantage. Can anybody estimate the effect of removal on the covariance?
    You’re over trolling, or rather thinking this one. Keep it simple and relate it.- properly to true count and table population. Of course, if you want better superior results, consider the regaled FBM ASC Advanced system.

  7. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I was just being humble. Let me assure you now. It can be done with combinatorial analysis.
    You are the expert could you please show me how to find covariance with combinatorial analysis ?

  8. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by James989 View Post
    You are the expert could you please show me how to find covariance with combinatorial analysis ?
    For simplicity, let us use a deck of 52 cards. Dealer’s up card can be: 2, 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, ace. For each dealer’s up card, each of the two player’s simultaneous hands can be: ace, 2, 3, 4, ...19, 20, 21, 22, ..., 29, 30, 31. Use a computer to list all possible permutations for each situations, and then calculate the expected values for each permutations. Then you will find the exact value of covariance. This is a lot of calculations though.

  9. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    You’re over trolling, or rather thinking this one. Keep it simple and relate it.- properly to true count and table population. Of course, if you want better superior results, consider the regaled FBM ASC Advanced system.
    I have been researching bjanalyst’s count systems because I tend to use a level one system. I’d like to research your FBM ASC system soon.

  10. #30
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    For simplicity, let us use a deck of 52 cards. Dealer’s up card can be: 2, 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, ace. For each dealer’s up card, each of the two player’s simultaneous hands can be: ace, 2, 3, 4, ...19, 20, 21, 22, ..., 29, 30, 31. Use a computer to list all possible permutations for each situations, and then calculate the expected values for each permutations. Then you will find the exact value of covariance. This is a lot of calculations though.
    That's top of the deck, ignores counts, ignores indices, ignores cut card, ignores changing number of hands.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

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