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Thread: Don/other experts, How to find covariance of a game ?

  1. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by James989 View Post
    Thank you very much
    There were some barbs questioning my expertise earlier.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I responded to your post because I am an expert.
    No wonder this forum is so popular. We have both a self-proclaimed expert and a Genius here to help everyone.

  3. #16
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    It can be done with combinatorial analysis.
    Not accurately for how the game is played in a casino.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  4. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    No wonder this forum is so popular. We have both a self-proclaimed expert and a Genius here to help everyone.
    Apparently Don is not an expert on this topic because he is silent seeing this, but Norm is definitely an expert. I can easily tell who is an expert by listening to what he is saying.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Apparently Don is not an expert on this topic because he is silent seeing this, but Norm is definitely an expert. I can easily tell who is an expert by listening to what he is saying.
    Sigh. What are you trying to do, shame me into responding? Unlike you, I don't talk when I don't have something intelligent to add to what has already been said competently and correctly (by Norm, in this case). See Griffin, p. 142, E. The comment that, "from simulated hands," he was able to ascertain the covariance of two simultaneous hands of blackjack speaks volumes. If Griffin couldn't calculate the covariance analytically, then no one could. Or perhaps, your vast blackjack capabilities exceed his. Please do tell us how to do it with CA. We're all ears.

    Don

  6. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sigh. What are you trying to do, shame me into responding? Unlike you, I don't talk when I don't have something intelligent to add to what has already been said competently and correctly (by Norm, in this case). See Griffin, p. 142, E. The comment that, "from simulated hands," he was able to ascertain the covariance of two simultaneous hands of blackjack speaks volumes. If Griffin couldn't calculate the covariance analytically, then no one could. Or perhaps, your vast blackjack capabilities exceed his. Please do tell us how to do it with CA. We're all ears.

    Don
    Now come the real question for you two. I have been considering buying CVData and CVCX to guide me through betting on blackjack to become a real pro, but there is one thing I am not confident about these two softwares. I always play two hands whenever I have an advantage in blackjack because I believe in the maximum expected return. I want these softwares to guide my bet spread when I play two hands simultaneously. Have your software considered the covariance issue and the bet spread for simultaneously two hands playing?

  7. #20
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    CVCX is accurate when playing one hand. When it comes to two hands, CVCX uses an estimation technique using the single hand results and lots of tables generated by CVData to determine covariance and count frequencies to calculate Kelly betting, etc. CVData supports up to seven hands changing the number of hands based on numerous user specified factors. These calculations include covariance and are accurate when calculating Kelly betting, risk, SCORE, etc.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Now come the real question for you two. I have been considering buying CVData and CVCX to guide me through betting on blackjack to become a real pro, but there is one thingn I am not confident about these two softwares. I always play two hands whenever I have an advantage in blackjack because I believe in the maximum expected return. I want these softwares to guide my bet spread when I play two hands simultaneously. Have your software considered the covariance issue and the bet spread for simultaneously two hands playing?
    what’s your approach - longevity or slash and burn. Regardless of your answer, your stated approach, especially at marginal plus counts with at least one table mate, you’ll be pegged quickly as a counter and robotic. Oh, and many with your thought process don’t understand the issue of buckets, and how to handle them.

    They’re far better strategies.

  9. #22
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    This is cool. Thank you.

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    what’s your approach - longevity or slash and burn. Regardless of your answer, your stated approach, especially at marginal plus counts with at least one table mate, you’ll be pegged quickly as a counter and robotic. Oh, and many with your thought process don’t understand the issue of buckets, and how to handle them.

    They’re far better strategies.
    The problem for me is that no matter what approach I used, I could not recover the loss I had on blackjack. But I am not concerned about my bankroll, because it was small anyway. I need a revolution! That is why I joined this discussion for new approaches. I am not worried about being backed off, because I have a thick skin.

  11. #24


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    That is why I joined this discussion for new approaches. I am not worried about being backed off, because I have a thick skin.
    Who cares about a thick skin when you can have both longevity and superior results - Silly rabbit

    https://youtu.be/Q5Jnw4IsztU

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Who cares about a thick skin when you can have both longevity and superior results - Silly rabbit

    https://youtu.be/Q5Jnw4IsztU
    I have been thinking about the covariance problem because this is critically related to when to play two blackjack hands simultaneously. The issue here is that it is probably related to the Ace cards in the deck. Suppose we have a 6-deck shoe with the strip rules, if six Aces are removed from this shoe, will the covariance of two simultaneous hands become smaller? I am thinking that if the covariance becomes larger, I will play one hand, and if the covariance becomes smaller, I will play two hands whenever I have an advantage. Can anybody estimate the effect of removal on the covariance?
    Last edited by aceside; 03-04-2021 at 10:38 AM.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I have been thinking about the covariance problem because this is critically related to when to play two blackjack hands simultaneously. The issue here is that it is probably related to the Ace cards in the deck. Suppose we have a 6-deck shoe with the strip rules, if six Aces are removed from this shoe, will the covariance of two simultaneous hands become smaller? I am thinking that if the covariance becomes larger, I will play one hand, and if the covariance becomes smaller, I will play two hands whenever I have an advantage. Can anybody estimate the effect of removal on the covariance?
    You’re over trolling, or rather thinking this one. Keep it simple and relate it.- properly to true count and table population. Of course, if you want better superior results, consider the regaled FBM ASC Advanced system.

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