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Thread: Ace Prediction Math

  1. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You figure that having "only" a ~25% edge is cause for being more conservative with your bet??

    Don
    I have thought about this again. The player’s 25.5% advantage is based on the assumption that the dealer’s probability of getting an ace is 1/13, but now the situation is the dealer’s probability of getting an ace is 50%. What is the expected return for this particular situation? This has been bothering me for two days. Thank you in advance.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I have thought about this again. The player’s 25.5% advantage is based on the assumption that the dealer’s probability of getting an ace is 1/13, but now the situation is the dealer’s probability of getting an ace is 50%. What is the expected return for this particular situation? This has been bothering me for two days. Thank you in advance.
    That's a completely different question. Your original version was that you could predict, with 50% accuracy, that YOU would receive the ace. You didn't say that if you didn't get it, the DEALER would! But that math is simple, no? 50% of the time, you have a 51% edge and 50% of the time, the dealer has a 37% edge. So, your overall edge is simply .50*.51 + .50*(-.37) = +.07 = 7%.

    Don

  3. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    That's a completely different question. Your original version was that you could predict, with 50% accuracy, that YOU would receive the ace. You didn't say that if you didn't get it, the DEALER would! But that math is simple, no? 50% of the time, you have a 51% edge and 50% of the time, the dealer has a 37% edge. So, your overall edge is simply .50*.51 + .50*(-.37) = +.07 = 7%.

    Don
    Very nice of you. Now I can take a rest. Thank you again.

  4. #30


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    I looked at James Grosjean's stellar "42.08%." This man knows his math!!!

    But the first sentence in the article is unclear to me. He says something like, "So, you know an Ace is coming." But I cannot figure out TO WHAT DEGREE OF CERTAINTY (e.g., 44%?, 38%?, etc.) of correctly predicting an Ace is James basing his calculations on?

    Or am I not even in the correct 'ballpark' with that question?

  5. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    I looked at James Grosjean's stellar "42.08%." This man knows his math!!!

    But the first sentence in the article is unclear to me. He says something like, "So, you know an Ace is coming." But I cannot figure out TO WHAT DEGREE OF CERTAINTY (e.g., 44%?, 38%?, etc.) of correctly predicting an Ace is James basing his calculations on?

    Or am I not even in the correct 'ballpark' with that question?
    100%.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    I looked at James Grosjean's stellar "42.08%." This man knows his math!!!

    But the first sentence in the article is unclear to me. He says something like, "So, you know an Ace is coming." But I cannot figure out TO WHAT DEGREE OF CERTAINTY (e.g., 44%?, 38%?, etc.) of correctly predicting an Ace is James basing his calculations on?

    Or am I not even in the correct 'ballpark' with that question?
    My understanding of this article is that you know with a 100% certainty (or very close to it) that you'll get the Ace. It could happen in situations where the dealer exposed accidentally the Ace, usually by "coming close" to hit his pat hand during the last round. This is a mistake fast dealers often do. When seating at first base, always take time to compliment a fast dealer, it will usually prompt him or her to deal faster and making that kind of mistake.

    You can also get close to 100% (between 90% and 99,9%) with great skills...and hours of practice.
    G Man

  7. #33


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    Oh, Ok, thanks.

  8. #34
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Thanks, Gramazeka.

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