So -2.8SD Losing Years Are A Real Thing... How Many Have You Experienced?

[discostu]

Howdy everybody

BJ21 is not really worth the membership fee anymore, and it appears as though this is the most active bj forum on the internet.

First time posting here, started learning how to play in 2015.



For you longer time, well seasoned players- how many losing YEARS have you had on the books?



I play 200-500 hours a year, depending on how busy my business is. I'm in the wedding/event industry, so if I do 4 a month I'm pretty happy. I have lots of travel time.


My first year of bj was a loser as I was still learning, but the second year I won back my losses plus expenses for essentially a wash.

Then I got better and cut out dealer tokes almost 100%, and upped my win rate to around $24/hr for year 3, then $53/hr for year 4. Grew the bank from $10k to $40k. I was still at about a third of expectation, but room/food/booze comps via mailers (so I don't have to fudge with hosts) and making 50% of my wedding revenue anytime I wanted was pretty cool.


Enter 2020. I know -2.8 is on the bell curve, but I never imagined myself there. Maybe the stars were just not aligned for anyone in any endeavor last year?

With no weddings, I couldn't work, so when casinos opened up and the comp gates overflowed, I decided to get some play in.

I spent a total of 13 weeks in Vegas across 3 different trips since the reopen. All room nights comped, maybe 50% of my food. Flights covered with miles (I get lots of credit card sign up bonuses). Biggest expense was a rental car for 4 weeks at a time ($650ish). Bought a $10 coffee maker so I didn't have to buy $5 starbucks twice a day haha.

I played mostly $10/$15/$25 DD H17 DOA games with a 30 card cut or BETTER (a couple dealers cut maybe 5 cards for me! I toked them a $1 rider for sure!). Played maybe 5% $5/$10 6D with a 1 deck cut, some with surrender and some without. About 10% of my play was SD in the non-Reno areas of NV, where I got 4 rounds to 2 spots or better (7-8 rounds to one spot with a few!). I use Hi-Lo indices from -5 to +15, and count aces on one hand for SD/DD and raise/lower my bet accordingly.

I got down 372 hours total of mostly heads up play (max one other player), only a handful of mostly polite backoffs (Except one where I was followed to my rental car by security). My spread is 2xTC in green chips, up to a max of 2x$300 at TC 8, just like CVCX displays. RoR is .2% on my current $30k bank (had to dip into savings during Covid). N0 of 4600-7000 depending on the game. End result was -$6300.

However, I got a crap load of freeplay from a couple plays I made last year under various aliases, and won about $5k total from that. Plus I hit my first progressive royal flush ever- $2k on a .25 cent 9/5 JoB and was stoked about that, played 6 hours straight. So essentially my year was a wash, however I'm pretty disappointed to be down 2.8 SD. CVCX says only .27% of years could be worse! Wish I was +2.8 SD and hit $100K over that period! Even -2SD would have left me with $20k bj profit, which I would gladly accept. The best trip I've ever had I was at -1SD.

This game really is a grind after awhile, especially such a long period of losing.

I'm wondering if counting is even worth it- maybe I should just focus on generating big comps for me and player 2 (and maybe my parents too!). $200-$500 freeplay a month times 10 casino chains times 2 people is $4k-$10k/mo, plus RFB mailers and invites to soft tourneys. And much less risk of backoff.

I've also found some progressive slots where wilds remain, and have made a few hundred off those. So I'm doing other things besides count. I've tried to network with other counters I see in the wild and have met two- a 40yo novice with a small $5k bankroll, and a 30yo novice with a $70k bankroll. We share data on heat and conditions and other things.

I've seen several flashing dealers too (when they check for bj on 10/A), but since I'm tall I find that anytime I slouch enough to see they tighten up. My counter friend with the bigger bank looks down upon holecarding and won't partner with me on it, so maybe I can train my P2 who already knows how to count.


Any words of wisdom or encouraging stories of past triumphs over periods of total blackjack bullshit?

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Discostu

[21forme]

Welcome discostu. Recognize your handle from BJ21. Hope your leisure suits are doing well.

With the exception of 2020, I typically play ~600-800 hours/yr. I've never had a losing year.

[aceside]

Welcome discostu. Recognize your handle from BJ21. Hope your leisure suits are doing well.

With the exception of 2020, I typically play ~600-800 hours/yr. I've never had a losing year.

This means you played almost everyday in a year. You are the most professional player I have seen. However, it seems you have played more than ten years and it’s hard to believe you have never had a losing year. Based on the variance and normal distribution theory, it is normal for a player to have some losing years.

[aceside]

My spread is 2xTC in green chips, up to a max of 2x$300 at TC 8, just like CVCX displays. RoR is .2% on my current $30k bank (had to dip into savings during Covid). N0 of 4600-7000 depending on the game. End result was -$6300.

Every time I read CVCX and ROR I feel that I probably have to invest on these softwares to play professionally. Your dedication is incredible.

[ZeeBabar]

Define what you call a losing year. For instance if a person starts the year with a $30k bankroll, ends with a $30k bankroll, do you consider the year as one you did not lose? Some may consider winning at $5 an hour as a losing year cause they would have earned more flipping burgers at McDonalds. Also, one may win at the tables but when they factor in expenses, they might have lost.

[dalmatian]

2020 was the best financial year of my life. Made 75,000$ at my lab job, 15,000$ delivering pizzas, 10,000$ trading stocks, and 20,000$ playing blackjack.

[aceside]

2020 was the best financial year of my life. Made 75,000$ at my lab job, 15,000$ delivering pizzas, 10,000$ trading stocks, and 20,000$ playing blackjack.

Is this a joke? What is your standard deviation of delivering pizzas for year 2020, and what is it for playing blackjack? Do not get off topic.

[ZeeBabar]

Is this a joke? What is your standard deviation of delivering pizzas for year 2020, and what is it for playing blackjack? Do not get off topic.

What Dalmatian wrote is quite common for many of us recreational players. I too, pre-retirement, was getting paid about $90,000 from my main job, was always willing to pick up a little money on week-ends at $15 an hour, and when I could head to a casino, made $45 an hour. What’s wrong with it?

Newbies think that because they earned $50+ an hour in local casinos can extrapolate and believe they could average that year after year playing BJ at $10 minimum tables.

[aceside]

What Dalmatian wrote is quite common for many of us recreational players. I too, pre-retirement, was getting paid about $90,000 from my main job, was always willing to pick up a little money on week-ends at $15 an hour, and when I could head to a casino, made $45 an hour. What’s wrong with it?

Newbies think that because they earned $50+ an hour in local casinos can extrapolate and believe they could average that year after year playing BJ at $10 minimum tables.

What I meant to say is that delivering pizzas and playing blackjack are two incomparable professions. One is blue collar and the other is white collar. If I can make $15000 a year from playing blackjack, I would never deliver pizzas for tips. Another thing I noticed is that many professional blackjack players here are actually in the business of financial or actuary, probably because trading stocks and playing blackjack complement each other very well.

[vegaskid]

What I meant to say is that delivering pizzas and playing blackjack are two incomparable professions. One is blue collar and the other is white collar. If I can make $15000 a year from playing blackjack, I would never deliver pizzas for tips. Another thing I noticed is that many professional blackjack players here are actually in the business of financial or actuary, probably because trading stocks and playing blackjack complement each other very well.

I'm not sure I'd call a "profession" that most of us are afraid to talk to our friends, neighbors, and even family members about "white collar". Is the profit potential much higher? Sure. But "white collar"? Maybe in the sense that you don't get your hands dirty, but not much else. If you've been around card counting long, you already know that about 99% of all practitioners would be better off delivering pizzas.

[aceside]

I'm not sure I'd call a "profession" that most of us are afraid to talk to our friends, neighbors, and even family members about "white collar". Is the profit potential much higher? Sure. But "white collar"? Maybe in the sense that you don't get your hands dirty, but not much else. If you've been around card counting long, you already know that about 99% of all practitioners would be better off delivering pizzas.

I would say that 98% of all blackjack practitioners would end up quitting blackjack, 1% would switch into poker and other games, and probably only 1% could survive this game. I once played a blackjack table for two hours and ended up cleaning up all the red chips on that table. At the same time, a second guy cleaned up all of the green chips, and a third guy cleaned up all of the black chips in the dealer's racks.

[discostu]

To get back on topic-

How many trips/years have you ended -2.8SD or worse?

Do you think straight counting is worthwhile (DD/SD good rules)? Or should I mainly focus on comp hustling/tourney invites?