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Thread: Penetrations Effect on Betting

  1. #1


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    Penetrations Effect on Betting

    I don't know how I missed this, I even remember originally writing down a bet spread for a 1 pen game and after switching to a 1.5 pen game noticing my bet spread was off...

    What I missed is that when changing your penetration in CVCX it changes your win loss percentage. As an example in Hi-Lo (According to CVCX) H17, DaS, 6D 5Pen: We gain an edge at a true 1 with a win/loss at 0.18% but after changing the pen to 4.5 we still gain our advantage at a true 1 with a win/loss at 0.16%

    A loss in EV but doesn't need much of a change in strategy.

    Though using reKO it does seem to change our strategy:

    Same rules with a 5 pen game using reKO we gain our edge at -2 with a win/loss at 0.10% but switching it to a 4.5 game we instead gain our edge at -3 with a win/loss of 0.11%

    So if we were to raise our bets based on a betting strategy put together when looking at a 5 Pen game in a 4.5 pen game we're betting into a -0.10% instead of the +0.10% we think we're betting.


    Is my poorly presented math correct?

  2. #2
    Senior Member JBourne's Avatar
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    Any time you change your game, count, or bet spread you can expect your optimal ramp to change. Sometimes it's not enough to matter but penetration is a sensitive variable, particularly with wider spreads. The optimal ramp is about getting the most predictable long term growth of your bankroll. It's not just about where you first get the advantage, it's more about where you want the density of your bets being placed. If you have a wide spread and deep pen you don't need to waste your bets at lower counts. If you have a narrow spread and poor pen you will need to bet more aggressively at lower counts because it's the only advantage you really have.

    In CVCX you can compare the results of the optimal ramp vs. a custom ramp.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Below AVG IQ View Post
    I don't know how I missed this, I even remember originally writing down a bet spread for a 1 pen game and after switching to a 1.5 pen game noticing my bet spread was off...

    What I missed is that when changing your penetration in CVCX it changes your win loss percentage. As an example in Hi-Lo (According to CVCX) H17, DaS, 6D 5Pen: We gain an edge at a true 1 with a win/loss at 0.18% but after changing the pen to 4.5 we still gain our advantage at a true 1 with a win/loss at 0.16%

    A loss in EV but doesn't need much of a change in strategy.

    Though using reKO it does seem to change our strategy:

    Same rules with a 5 pen game using reKO we gain our edge at -2 with a win/loss at 0.10% but switching it to a 4.5 game we instead gain our edge at -3 with a win/loss of 0.11%

    So if we were to raise our bets based on a betting strategy put together when looking at a 5 Pen game in a 4.5 pen game we're betting into a -0.10% instead of the +0.10% we think we're betting.


    Is my poorly presented math correct?
    I agree with the guy above. I have been an AP for some time and have switched my counting systems a couple of times. I feel that the most important thing in counting is to use the right system for the right game. However, HiLo is a must learn for every AP because it is versatile. Penetration is so important that you do not play games with low pen. Low pen means higher bet spread and higher risk, if counting only.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I agree with the guy above. I have been an AP for some time and have switched my counting systems a couple of times. I feel that the most important thing in counting is to use the right system for the right game. However, HiLo is a must learn for every AP because it is versatile. Penetration is so important that you do not play games with low pen. Low pen means higher bet spread and higher risk, if counting only.
    Could anyone tell me how much money I am leaving at the table by using HiLo instead of Hi-Opt2 or other level 2 count if I am playing with a $10 minimum game with a max bet of $200 in a 4 hour session playing 2 decks, 6 deck game? I would bet it’s less than $2.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Could anyone tell me how much money I am leaving at the table by using HiLo instead of Hi-Opt2 or other level 2 count if I am playing with a $10 minimum game with a max bet of $200 in a 4 hour session playing 2 decks, 6 deck game? I would bet it’s less than $2.
    I am experienced with different systems. HiOpt are for single and double decks. Hilo and zen are for shoe games. Difference is huge but I don’t know the numbers.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Could anyone tell me how much money I am leaving at the table by using HiLo instead of Hi-Opt2 or other level 2 count if I am playing with a $10 minimum game with a max bet of $200 in a 4 hour session playing 2 decks, 6 deck game? I would bet it’s less than $2.
    An insignificant amount

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Low pen means higher bet spread and higher risk, if counting only.
    First, you are the guy that thinks that ROR is not that important. You could walk into a place and there are two open tables both with only one player at each table. Both tables have same exact good rules with 6 decks and higher minimums only difference is one table is dealing out 5 decks, and the other 3.5 decks and you think that there is more risk playing the game that is cutting out 2.5 decks? Please!

    Risk is good, deeper cuts means plenty of opportunities to put much more money at risk, but only for someone who is properly bankrolled and is not sweating the results of every hand. You on the other hand want to play those games with the good rules and sit down at a $50 table with $2k in your pocket and at this point you are going to have plenty of risk regardless of which table you sit down at.

    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I have been an AP for some time and have switched my counting systems a couple of times.
    I'm glad that you cleared that up.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    First, you are the guy that thinks that ROR is not that important. You could walk into a place and there are two open tables both with only one player at each table. Both tables have same exact good rules with 6 decks and higher minimums only difference is one table is dealing out 5 decks, and the other 3.5 decks and you think that there is more risk playing the game that is cutting out 2.5 decks? Please!

    Risk is good, deeper cuts means plenty of opportunities to put much more money at risk, but only for someone who is properly bankrolled and is not sweating the results of every hand. You on the other hand want to play those games with the good rules and sit down at a $50 table with $2k in your pocket and at this point you are going to have plenty of risk regardless of which table you sit down at.
    I have carefully read into blackjack variance, risk, ROR and money management myself. I need a couple of days to finish my reading. What I just stated was not accurate. Generally, more decks of cards means less risk but less money; less desks of cards means more risk and more money. You cannot have both. As for penetration, you just treat the remaining decks as the number of desks of cards you are going to play.
    Thank you for your help. I have gained some knowledge about ROR.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Could anyone tell me how much money I am leaving at the table by using HiLo instead of Hi-Opt2 or other level 2 count if I am playing with a $10 minimum game with a max bet of $200 in a 4 hour session playing 2 decks, 6 deck game? I would bet it’s less than $2.
    All of your answers are on pages 171 and 172 of BJA3. And it's a lot more than $2.

    Don

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    And it's a lot more than $2.
    That's assuming he's capable of playing an error-free L2 count and won't be afraid to spread, split, DD, etc., when appropriate.

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