Originally Posted by

**aceside**
I am glad I joined this forum. You are all very helpful. I am a blackjack player not a mathematician. This is some reason I joined this forum to seek help from you. I would like to learn from you, especially Don, Gronbog, Norm, and G man and more. I played a lot that is why I trust my intuitions. However, I made some mistakes in my calculation of blackjack hand frequencies. Let me correct them one by one. But firstly, let me simplify the math first. We assume it is a 6-deck game without surrender and consider only the player’s first two cards.

1. Player makes a stand/hit decision at 16v10 at a frequency of 42%*(13/169)*(4/13)=1.0%. Here the 42% is the frequency of true count +0.

2. Player makes insurance/no decision at dealer Ace at a frequency of 5%*1/13=0.4%. Here the 5% is the frequency of true count +3.

3. I overestimated the contribution from surrender option. I don’t know how to get a number here.

4. I totally agree with Don “you can't possibly rank "surrender" as a single value or contribution to overall SCORE”. I always combine surrender into the hit/stand option.

Finally, I will read more into your books to learn and expect to see more research results on this optic.

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