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Thread: Which deviations are most valuable?

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    Which deviations are most valuable?

    Can CVData analyze deviations and, like Don did with the Ill18, list them in order of EV/SCORE? I know it's a hard thing to do computationally, and it depends on your bet spread and probably a bunch of other stuff. But it would be nice to know which deviations to learn first. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8Tdvgpdbrc)

    I feel like I can't be the first to ask this question, so if there's already a thread on this that I can't find, I'd appreciate a link to it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PitBoss321 View Post
    Can CVData analyze deviations and, like Don did with the Ill18, list them in order of EV/SCORE? I know it's a hard thing to do computationally, and it depends on your bet spread and probably a bunch of other stuff. But it would be nice to know which deviations to learn first. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8Tdvgpdbrc)

    I feel like I can't be the first to ask this question, so if there's already a thread on this that I can't find, I'd appreciate a link to it.
    This is precisely what Gronbog and I are working on now and will eventually bring to market. You have no idea of the computational load involved. You can't even fathom it. But, I'm surprised you're asking about which indices to learn first; that's been out there for a very long time. Learn the I18. Learn the Catch 22. Learn the Fab 4.

    We'll get back to you about the others and how much more they contribute to SCORE.

    Don

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    By the way, nothing ambitious planned -- just about 9,000 charts or so.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Learn the I18. Learn the Catch 22. Learn the Fab 4.
    Even though my town has H17 and ES10?

    Like you say in BJA, the I18 are a jumping off point. And I figure if I can't play yet, I may as well get good info for when I can play.

    I am very excited for the new project, I hope everything goes smoothly!

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I have designed a methodology for this that does far more along these lines. Algorithmic calculation is not accurate. The design is accurate, not an estimate, but about 500 times faster than normal simulation.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    By the way, nothing ambitious planned -- just about 9,000 charts or so.
    Who will play you in the movie version?
    Last edited by 21forme; 01-09-2021 at 08:40 AM. Reason: typo

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    I'm playing Don and Don is playing me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I have designed a methodology for this that does far more along these lines. Algorithmic calculation is not accurate. The design is accurate, not an estimate, but about 500 times faster than normal simulation.
    Interesting. How, if I may ask?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    That's going to take a lot of diagrams to explain. Perhaps after I implement it.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    That's going to take a lot of diagrams to explain. Perhaps after I implement it.
    That would be a real treat! Thanks!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PitBoss321 View Post
    Can CVData analyze deviations and, like Don did with the Ill18, list them in order of EV/SCORE? I know it's a hard thing to do computationally, and it depends on your bet spread and probably a bunch of other stuff. But it would be nice to know which deviations to learn first. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8Tdvgpdbrc)

    I feel like I can't be the first to ask this question, so if there's already a thread on this that I can't find, I'd appreciate a link to it.
    I do not quite understand this question very well. I guess the most important thing in Blackjack is bet spread, and play deviations are minor. If you work so hard on minor important things, what is the value of it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    ...play deviations are minor. If you work so hard on minor important things, what is the value of it?
    But they aren't minor! If we take Colin's word in the video I linked, 20 - 40% of our edge comes from playing deviations, not betting variation. But, a lion's share of the value from play deviations comes from Insurance and 16v10. So my question is how fast does the value of deviations drop off (for example, https://blackjackincolor.com/truecount3.htm here you can see in the first chart that the I18 get you most of the value of full indexes bet -3 and +6), and which are next on the list?

    And, as a corollary, what indexes are valuable under different systems than those the I18 were made for? (3/4deck, s17, 1-12 bet spread)

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    Quote Originally Posted by PitBoss321 View Post
    But, a lion's share of the value from play deviations comes from Insurance and 16v10.
    I watched that video clip but intuitively I don't believe what is stated there. It is very clear to me that the most frequent encounter of hands is 16v10, so this must be the most valuable deviation if flat bet. The insurance bet is a lot less frequent, and thus a lot less important. I guess 15v10 should be a lot more important than insurance too. However, the ultimate question I ask is this: If we flat bet, how much edge can a player gain from playing deviations only? Additionally, if a player follow a bet ramping spread of 1/2/4/8/16 for step increasing true count, how much can a player get from combing deviation and spread?

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