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Thread: Which deviations are most valuable?

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  1. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I do every calculation myself. Let me show you that the player 16v10 is a lot more frequent than dealer Aces. Frequency of the player 16v10 is 42%*4/13=13% for six-decks. Frequency of the dealer Aces is 5%*1/13=0.4%. Therefore, 16v10 is a lot more frequent that insurance offers. I do not believe publications. The 16v10 must be the most important deviation. Besides, the surrender option will make this deviation more important. You cite of wizard of odds "late surrender adds 0.07%" is not correct for card counting. It should be 7% when counting. However, your calculation earning when flat bet with solely play deviation is very helpful for me. Thank you.
    It's good to be sceptical of published data. I am that way myself. However, some sources have proven themselves to be reliable. The Wizard of Odds is one of those sources and the CV software is state of the art for our game.

    It's also good to do you own research. However:

    1. Your calculation for frequency of a dealer ace is incorrect. The probability off the top of the deck/shoe is simply 1/13~=7.7%
    2. Your calculation of the occurrence of 16 vs T is also incorrect. 4/13 is correct for a dealer face card but what is the 42%? The correct probability for 16 vs T is 3.5% according to BJA3 (another irrefutable source).
    3. An additional player edge of 7% is grossly high for surrender when counting. There is no complete card counting system which furnishes an edge even remotely this high.
    4. You stated in an earlier post that surrender makes 16 vs T even more valuable. The opposite is actually true. This is because you would then surrender all initial 16 vs T hands at counts of -3 and higher and would hit at counts below -3. You would only have the opportunity to stand on 16 vs T for multicard hands and hands occurring after splitting. That is, the frequency of the hit/stand decision for 16 vs T drops dramatically.
    Last edited by Gronbog; 01-12-2021 at 09:16 AM. Reason: Added surrender index for 16 vs T

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