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Thread: Vaccine and plans to fly to play..

  1. #105


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    Getting my last shot Monday. I am more than ready for normality. Norm's right though. The masks aren't going away any time soon.

  2. #106


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    Since we are all (in theory) APs I am surprised that decisions about whether to play or not to play dont seem to involve calculations to determine whether play offers an advantage or not compare to the risk. I guess i am a little guilty in this regard as my personal casino time has been limited to a couple of scouting trips looking at dealers and shuffles. My reasons for not pay have involved qualitative issues like 1) dont want to wear a mask for hours on end, and 2) have an elderly person living in my house and dont want to be a potential source of their demise. That said for many of us to play or not to play can be summarized by a fairly straight forward approach involving:

    1) take county infection rate where the casino is located (this reflects random chance of coming in contact with COVID during a random contact)
    2) double the rate to account for the length of time in a casino plus the close contact with other patrons and general slime associated with handling things like chips, cash etc.
    3) assume a transmission rate of 100% x the baseline rate of infection found by multiplying 1 and 2 above - of course this is way conservative as your actual rate of transmission will likely be a small fraction but overestimates your risk
    4) multiply 1 and 2 by 0.003 if you under 65 and 0.007 if you are over 65
    Item 4 reflects your probability of COVID death due to play
    5) take 78 - current age if male, and 80 - current age if female - avg US life expectancies (note larger for ladies than men for reasons beyond this quick post)
    item 5 reflects years of life lost
    6) using item 5 and your total income use standard acutarial tables to determine your actual expected loss of earnings over you life due to an early COVID induced fatilty. Seems complicated but happens all the time in lawsuits where someones negligence leads to an early demise of someone else.

    So your risk on a $$ basis is Item 6.

    7. Now calc your benefit of playing by multiplying your play time in hours by your expected value/hour

    7 represents your economic benefit of playing.

    8. Subtract line 6 from line 7, if positive your risk is too large relative to the benefit. If negative the benefits outway the risk and play with confidence that you are making the right choice.

    Have to refine a little to consider net present value of loss of earnings due to premature death and also for passive earnings between the projected retirement date to your expected end of life projection.

    Cohiba

  3. #107


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    Why would ages 78 and 80 matter in your calculation? They are the average life expectancies for babies born today in the U.S. They don't reflect how many (on average) years you have to live from this present age forward. For example, if you're a 70-year-old male, your life expectancy isn't 8 years; it's 14.4 years. And 16.6 for a woman.

    Don

  4. #108


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Why would ages 78 and 80 matter in your calculation? They are the average life expectancies for babies born today in the U.S. They don't reflect how many (on average) years you have to live from this present age forward. For example, if you're a 70-year-old male, your life expectancy isn't 8 years; it's 14.4 years. And 16.6 for a woman.

    Don
    Don thanks for the comment. I think my error was in referencing the numbers from the 1st edition of BJ Attack. I am sure that this was clarified in the most recent edition.

    I agree with your logic and would also offer that i was just providing an approach that someone could use to help assess whether trying to play made sense from a financial point of view. One should always use better numbers and estimates as applicable to their own situation. For example their are web sources where you fil out a questionaire with health, family and lifestyle information and it pops out a life expectancy that may be more accurate for an individual. Also the doubling of the local county health rate for infection is quite gross as an assumption. You for example, can go to the CDC or Hopkins web site and enter for an enclosed space with a number of occupants and it will give you much better data on your risk of infection. Also how well you implement social distancing etc will play a big role as well. On the ev side how to estimate the number of hours played before you contract the virus is essential to determining your overall return.

    So in short i should have been more precise in just offering an approach while stating upfront that i would tweak and adjust for a given situation to get a better estimate. If you run the numbers a couple hundred hour ev count game wont likely compensate you for the loss of lifetime earnings associated with tapping out from a casino induced rona infection. A couple of thousand hole card game may make it worthwhile from an EV perspective.

    Cohiba

  5. #109


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    I was never one for math but I am, after not entering a casino in about 15 months, finding that I can do without, that it’s not as important (or that I am not as addicted) as I thought. I played for more than just money anyway, enjoyed the camaraderie with others at the table, enjoyed people watching etc.

  6. #110

  7. #111


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    I just don't get it! Why are people still doing leisure traveling when the pandemic is not over yet? Case has decreased but there are still new cases.

  8. #112


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I just don't get it! Why are people still doing leisure traveling when the pandemic is not over yet? Case has decreased but there are still new cases.
    its just a matter of risk management and how comfortable you are with the precautions and your own health factors. in the long run we all end up in the box and folks have to make their own decisions. look at the early days of the aids epidemic - transmission paths were understood early but millions and millions had to die before folks started modifying behaviors to a great extent.

    i wont drive after more than one drink - period. i bet there is a wide range what folks feel comfortable with in this regard.

    Cohiba

  9. #113


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cohiba View Post
    how comfortable you are with the precautions and your own health factors
    The part in bold is part of the problem. People think that it ends with them if they get infected.

    Consider the mutation which was first detected in the U.K. In that case (as it is with all mutations), the virus mutated once, within a single person and that variant is now dominant in parts of the U.K and is also now all over the world.

  10. #114


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cohiba View Post
    its just a matter of risk management and how comfortable you are with the precautions and your own health factors.
    Cohiba
    Risk management is not risk free.

  11. #115


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Risk management is not risk free.
    Of course not. Everything in life involves choices and rarely is the choice risk vs no-risk. Most decisions involve a balancing of (and accepting a certain amount of) risk. For example lets say the government decided to outlaw highway travel at 2 mph to reduce the risk of fatality in motor vehicle accidents. The accident rate would go down for sure - perhaps to zero but interstate commerce and our ability to deliver food and other products would also be impacted as well. So the government has established a much higher limit to balance risk of motor travel vs the risk associated with other hazards of life ny not being able to supply good and services long distances.

    The government has allowed a certain amount of travel during COVID with specified restrictions; the idea is not to eliminate risk (whatever that means) but rather to determine as a matter of policy a reasonable level of risk. That said if i decide to travel i still am obligated to follow guidelines on quarenteening, testing and so forth prior to going in public when i return home and potentially infecting someone else.

    Cohiba

  12. #116


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cohiba View Post
    Of course not. Everything in life involves choices and rarely is the choice risk vs no-risk. Most decisions involve a balancing of (and accepting a certain amount of) risk. For example lets say the government decided to outlaw highway travel at 2 mph to reduce the risk of fatality in motor vehicle accidents. The accident rate would go down for sure - perhaps to zero but interstate commerce and our ability to deliver food and other products would also be impacted as well. So the government has established a much higher limit to balance risk of motor travel vs the risk associated with other hazards of life ny not being able to supply good and services long distances.

    The government has allowed a certain amount of travel during COVID with specified restrictions; the idea is not to eliminate risk (whatever that means) but rather to determine as a matter of policy a reasonable level of risk. That said if i decide to travel i still am obligated to follow guidelines on quarenteening, testing and so forth prior to going in public when i return home and potentially infecting someone else.

    Cohiba
    If someone tell you that they are not going to take any risk and you tell them of course is not risk free. They going to run for the hills.

  13. #117


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    If someone tell you that they are not going to take any risk and you tell them of course is not risk free. They going to run for the hills.

    You can run but you cant hide! The point i was making is everything in life involves risk to one degree or another. If you are looking to completely avoid risk in life its just not realistic. Take for example the restrictions on certain medical procedures in the name of mitigating covid risk and the risk that introduces to the folks who have had certain procedures delayed. Or take the risk to the kids in Nevada (and elsewhere) who have been committing suicide, in part, over isolation during the COVID. There is no such thing in this worlds as zero risk. Everytime you leave your cocoon and expose yourself to the world you are inviting risk.

    With that i will stop on this topic and offer you the last perspective if you so desire.

    Cohiba

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