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Thread: Sim Request

  1. #1


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    Sim Request

    Would anyone be willing to provide expected return and variance for these three scenarios? Thanks!

    1-2-3-4 units at TC (2-3-4-5) + M with M=0,1,2 and standard rules

  2. #2


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    FWMR,

    For a 6D CSM, the EV is about -0.5% and the variance is about 1.33 for all cases.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  3. #3


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    These figures are consistent with basic strategy and therefore seem low: plays aren't made below TC 2 + M. Are you sure? Thanks again.

  4. #4


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    FWMR,

    You did not provide nearly enough information, so I gave the EV and Var for a CSM game: in other words, for playing with the T.C. equal to zero at the start of each round.

    To receive a more useful answer, you have to provide more information:
    What are the house rules?
    What is the penetration?
    What count strategy are you using?
    Does your spread mean that you sit out when the T.C. is less than 2+M? (I tacitly assumed you meant that you bet 1 unit for all T.C.'s less than or equal to 2+M, but your post above seems to contradict this assumption.)
    What do you bet if the T.C. is larger than 5+M?

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by FWMR View Post
    Would anyone be willing to provide expected return and variance for these three scenarios? Thanks!

    1-2-3-4 units at TC (2-3-4-5) + M with M=0,1,2 and standard rules
    What does M mean?

    Do you mean you bet 1-2-3-4 units at TC 4-5-6-7 when M=2?
    Does standard rules mean PA rules with penetration 5/6?

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    FWMR,

    You did not provide nearly enough information, so I gave the EV and Var for a CSM game: in other words, for playing with the T.C. equal to zero at the start of each round.

    To receive a more useful answer, you have to provide more information:
    What are the house rules?
    What is the penetration?
    What count strategy are you using?
    Does your spread mean that you sit out when the T.C. is less than 2+M? (I tacitly assumed you meant that you bet 1 unit for all T.C.'s less than or equal to 2+M, but your post above seems to contradict this assumption.)
    What do you bet if the T.C. is larger than 5+M?

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Here are some extra details:

    6D, H17, DAS, no surrender, RSA, DA2, 75% penetration with hi-lo no indices. Anything less than 2+M is zero and 5+M or greater is 4 units.

  7. #7


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    CVCX Results

    FWMR,

    I used CVCX with these parameters: 6D, H17, DA2, DAS, RSA, 75% pen, HiLo with Sweet 16, 4 players total:

    Wong in EV/hr SD/hr %play
    +2 0.64 10.72 16.1
    +3 0.46 7.58 8.7
    +4 0.31 5.98 5.2


    If you want the variance, square the SD.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  8. #8


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    Great. A couple of questions: (1) How many hands/hour are assumed, and (2) does the SD include the time spent not betting? Thanks again.

  9. #9


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    FWMR,

    (1) 100 rounds per hour
    (2) Yes

    Dog Hand

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    FWMR,

    (1) 100 rounds per hour
    (2) Yes
    Just a clarification, which, of course, you know, but is for the OP. The 100 rounds per hour are observed by the back-counter. Multiply that figure by the "%play" to determine the actual number of hands played per hour.

    Don

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Just a clarification, which, of course, you know, but is for the OP. The 100 rounds per hour are observed by the back-counter. Multiply that figure by the "%play" to determine the actual number of hands played per hour.

    Don
    When you mean OP, does it stand for Ordinary Poster or Ordinary Player? An Ordinary Player (OP) would not calculate hands played per hour when most of them are unskilled gamblers.

  12. #12


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    OP = Original Post(er)

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