How Far Out of my Way is Justified for Late Surrender?

[Mets]

Happy Holidays Everyone!

I am a KO Player and I just read in the color of Blackjack the late surrender rule increases EV by much more than the 0.06% it is known for.

According to Daniel Dravot, the Author, the 0.06% reduction in house edge from late surrender is based on flat betting.


However, when counting cards, late surrender gives significantly more than 0.06 advantage. This is because we are not flat betting and we save "dramatically" more money when surrendering our Max bets.

[Freightman]

Happy Holidays Everyone!

I am a KO Player and I just read in the color of Blackjack the late surrender rule increases EV by much more than the 0.06% it is known for.

According to Daniel Dravot, the Author, the 0.06% reduction in house edge from late surrender is based on flat betting.


However, when counting cards, late surrender gives significantly more than 0.06 advantage. This is because we are not flat betting and we save "dramatically" more money when surrendering our Max bets.

Another way of looking at it. Surrender, used properly by a counter, will add at 30% plus to your win rate. To be more precise, surrender does not make money for you, rather it helps you lose less. Tantamount to the same thing.

[DSchles]

Surrender, used properly by a counter, will add at 30% plus to your win rate.

It adds much more than that. Look at the p. 232 charts of BJA3, and do the math.

Don

[DSchles]

Happy Holidays Everyone!

I am a KO Player and I just read in the color of Blackjack the late surrender rule increases EV by much more than the 0.06% it is known for.

According to Daniel Dravot, the Author, the 0.06% reduction in house edge from late surrender is based on flat betting.


However, when counting cards, late surrender gives significantly more than 0.06 advantage. This is because we are not flat betting and we save "dramatically" more money when surrendering our Max bets.

Since you don't seem to have a question, I'll just assume that you're looking for confirmation of Dravot's statements. Yes, they are correct. To quantify how much the actual improvement can be, see the summary charts that introduce each of the sections of the Chapter 10 charts of BJA3.

Don

[Freightman]

It adds much more than that. Look at the p. 232 charts of BJA3, and do the math.

Don

Didn't have, and still don’t have it in front of me. Assume it’s about 38%. Didn’t want to overstate, so, the notation - 30% plus

[Mets]

Thanks Freightman, Thanks Don!

Sorry about that. You were right. I was looking for confirmation of Dravot's claims.

I have not seen the charts in blackjack attack yet, but I assume what this means to me is that I should spend less time in Atlantic City (no late surrender) and more time in Pennsylvania (late surrender is allowed).

[Freightman]

I have not seen the charts in blackjack attack yet, but I assume what this means to me is that I should spend less time in Atlantic City (no late surrender) and more time in Pennsylvania (late surrender is allowed).

What you really need to learn is what good rules compensate for bad ones, what bad ones can be compensated for by great deck penetration etc etc.

Late surrender adds significantly to win rate.
ES10 adds even more to win rate than LS.
Full ES adds more to win rate than ES10.
You can put up with lousy pen with great rules
You need great pen to compensate for shitty rules, and on it goes. Heaven is a combo of great rules, great pen, and great tolerance - not sure I’ve ever seen blackjack heaven, though I have made it to the clouds.

Oh, and as long as im at it, it’s handy being able to sim at the table to determine house edge, minimum spread to beat, and adjusting that spread based on deck pen. Food for thought.

[DSchles]

Didn't have, and still don’t have it in front of me. Assume it’s about 38%. Didn’t want to overstate, so, the notation - 30% plus

It's MUCH more than that!

Don

[Freightman]

It's MUCH more than that!

Don

ive made a note to myself to check out charts on p 232 of Professional Blackjack....oh wait, BJA3. I’ll do that tomorrow.

[Freightman]

ive made a note to myself to check out charts on p 232 of Professional Blackjack....oh wait, BJA3. I’ll do that tomorrow.

Its getting late and I’ll check it in more detail tomorrow. A quick cursory review is really interesting. Checking 6 deck columns H17 DAS against column H17 DAS LS seems to show a far higher percentage increase in win rate on lower versus higher spreads.

This has some interesting strategy implications, which I want to give more thought on.

[DSchles]

Its getting late and I’ll check it in more detail tomorrow. A quick cursory review is really interesting. Checking 6 deck columns H17 DAS against column H17 DAS LS seems to show a far higher percentage increase in win rate on lower versus higher spreads.

This has some interesting strategy implications, which I want to give more thought on.

It always amazes me how knowledgeable you are on the game in some areas and then. ... READ the book! Really READ it! :-)

Don

[Freightman]

It always amazes me how knowledgeable you are on the game in some areas and then. ... READ the book! Really READ it! :-)

Don

2,3 maybe 4 comments
1. Your comments are actually vindication from those lobotomized (thanks for the saying) Neanderthal dumb fuck douchebags who espouse their stupidity (you guys know who you are) claiming I know not.
2. I think your comments, usually bang on, miss context (it happens and I forgive you), and besides, I was tired when I write those words causing your unrighteousness indignation.
3. I have read said book with vigor and without malice aforethought. I claim many, including myself, have read cover to cover your delightful magnum opus, but further confess that one cannot ever truly complete reading of same - a true compliment.
4. It’s time for dinner.

[21forme]

complement.

Ruh Roh.