Maths URGENT

[Hairoller]

Dear ppl,

what is the probability of losing 8 hands in a row in blackjack and how do I calculate it?

Sorry for bothering you but I forgot about it and I am too lazy to figure it out, so I'm asking the professionals here!

Big thanks in advance!

Sincerely,
Hairoller

[Freightman]

Dear ppl,

what is the probability of losing 8 hands in a row in blackjack and how do I calculate it?

Sorry for bothering you but I forgot about it and I am too lazy to figure it out, so I'm asking the professionals here!

Big thanks in advance!

Sincerely,
Hairoller

Your commentary suggests that you are capable of figuring it out yourself, except that you’re too lazy. Since this is your first post, try doing it yourself - it will add character.

Regardless, it’s not unusual.

[Hairoller]

Wow, thanks for your great welcome over here! You've added yourself some character, Freightman. Cheers

[DSchles]

Dear ppl,

what is the probability of losing 8 hands in a row in blackjack and how do I calculate it?

Sorry for bothering you but I forgot about it and I am too lazy to figure it out, so I'm asking the professionals here!

Big thanks in advance!

Sincerely,
Hairoller

If you just sat down at a table and played only eight hands, the probability of losing all eight of them is about (0.473)^8 = 0.0025, or once in about 400 such trials. This includes ties; that is, if there is a tie, it breaks the streak and does NOT count as a lost hand.

More importantly, I doubt that this is what you really want to know. You probably encountered a string of eight losses somewhere during a whole night of play, and that is a very different calculation. So, if you played a couple of hundred hands and, along the way, managed to lose eight in a row, the probability of that occurrence is, of course, much greater than the above. Tell me how many hands you played, and I can give you that value.

Don

[Chaconne]

Wow, thanks for your great welcome over here! You've added yourself some character, Freightman. Cheers

Don't worry. Most of the posters are pretty nice here.

[Freightman]

Don't worry. Most of the posters are pretty nice here.

I fail to see the issue. OP states, in his first post, that he’s to lazy to solve a problem which he intimated he can figure out. He then asks for anyone else to figure itout. Presumptuous actually.

Here’s an analogy - When I take a leak, I hold my own schvantz. I don’t ask someone else to hold it because I’m too lazy.

[Chaconne]

I fail to see the issue. OP states, in his first post, that he’s to lazy to solve a problem which he intimated he can figure out. He then asks for anyone else to figure itout. Presumptuous actually.

Here’s an analogy - When I take a leak, I hold my own schvantz. I don’t ask someone else to hold it because I’m too lazy.

Indeed, that is an analogy. A piss poor one.

[Midwest Player]

Your commentary suggests that you are capable of figuring it out yourself, except that you’re too lazy. Since this is your first post, try doing it yourself - it will add character.

Regardless, it’s not unusual.

I can't figure it out, even though I took both Statistics and Calculus in college. In fact, I even forgot most of my algebra. After college my job basically only involved math and even then a machine did that for me.

Now if my life depended on it, I'm sure I could eventually figure it out, but most likely I would just Google it, and I did. Different answer than Don's.
"1 in 173
Ignoring ties the probability of a new loss for a hand of blackjack is 52.51%. So the probability of losing 8 in a row is .5251^8 = 1 in 173."

See also.
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/odds-b...ands-in-a-row/

[Freightman]

Now if my life depended on it, I'm sure I could eventually figure it out, but most likely I would just Google it, and I did. Different answer than Don's.
"1 in 173
Ignoring ties the probability of a new loss for a hand of blackjack is 52.51%. So the probability of losing 8 in a row is .5251^8 = 1 in 173."

Don is right. You used a figure including wins and ties. Try it again - you should come out with the same answer. Now, excluding ties and 8 straight losses, I would have instinctively calculated off the top. Seems Don has a different approach.

Regardless, where Dons first use of .473 is just for non losses, use an approx .427 for losses, which leaves a nice round number of .1 for ties, what’s wrong with .427^8 at about .0011, or once in 909 times give or take.

[davethebuilder]

Whenever this calculation comes up I always think someone is trying to assess the potential of the Martingale System which we all know eventually fails.

Try this: Given a certain amount of hands played let the number of expected winning hands be "x" and the number of expected losing hands be "y".

Therefore, not counting ties, the chance of losing a hand is y/(x+y) expressed as a percentage.

To calculate the chance of losing 8 hands in a row you need to decimalise the percentage and raise it to the power of 8 and then express the answer as a fraction.

[Freightman]

Whenever this calculation comes up I always think someone is trying to assess the potential of the Martingale System which we all know eventually fails.

Around 1978, I won a sales incentive trip to Monte Carlo. My wife and I went with $500 spending money. I had no clue about gambling, and made the presumption that odds were 50/50 per round. Didn’t know about splitting and thought that doubling increased my exposure. Obviously, doubling up after every loss sounded very logical.

it was, to my way if thinking at the time, successful and obvious strategy. I had several small win successful sessions. Then, I had the session which wiped out most, if not all of my winnings. I was too chicken to make that last double up. It was still at least a couple of decades before I went back to the casino (with my dad).

[DSchles]

I can't figure it out, even though I took both Statistics and Calculus in college. In fact, I even forgot most of my algebra. After college my job basically only involved math and even then a machine did that for me.

Now if my life depended on it, I'm sure I could eventually figure it out, but most likely I would just Google it, and I did. Different answer than Don's.
"1 in 173
Ignoring ties the probability of a new loss for a hand of blackjack is 52.51%. So the probability of losing 8 in a row is .5251^8 = 1 in 173."

See also.
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/odds-b...ands-in-a-row/

I thought I had made it clear that I considered losing eight hands in a row to be: YOU LOSE eight hands in a row!! A tie is not a loss. A tie interrupts a losing streak. The dealer didn't take your money. If that's not the calculation that the OP wants, let him rephrase his question.

Anyway, depending on rules, the probability of a loss can vary. I think it's actually closer to 47.8% than to 47.3%. So, the answer for eight consecutive losses, with NO TIES (clear??) is 0.478^8 = 0.002725, or once in every 367 attempts.

Don

[davethebuilder]

Around 1978, I won a sales incentive trip to Monte Carlo. My wife and I went with $500 spending money. I had no clue about gambling, and made the presumption that odds were 50/50 per round. Didn’t know about splitting and thought that doubling increased my exposure. Obviously, doubling up after every loss sounded very logical.

it was, to my way if thinking at the time, successful and obvious strategy. I had several small win successful sessions. Then, I had the session which wiped out most, if not all of my winnings. I was too chicken to make that last double up. It was still at least a couple of decades before I went back to the casino (with my dad).

Glad to hear that your much wiser now. Most people have to try it for themselves and only after a large loss do they get the message. It's human nature.

In Blackjack and all other casino games you need an edge, which can come in many forms, but without it you can't win in the long run and manipulating one's bet size is not going to alter the outcome.