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Thread: Perfect insurance

  1. #1


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    Perfect insurance

    Hello all
    I suspect Don has the answer to these two questions.
    I realized recently that perfect insurance (when tens are 33,3% of the deck composition) means that we should take insurance much more often than the estimated 25% for each dealer ace upcard seen, since TC3 or higher with HILO happens about 25% of the time when playing 2D at 75% pen.

    Question 1 : How often does a 2-deck shoe is composed of tens in a ratio of 33,3% or higher?

    Perfect insurance means that we should take insurance even in some negative counts when the deck is short of 789s (uncounted cards in HiLo). A shortage of aces may also trigger insurance below TC3.
    My estimation from a 10 000 hands sample is that Perfect insurance means that we should take insurance in a ratio of about 1.5/1 compared to TC3 triggered insurance with HiLo but that may be inaccurate.
    I am sure Don has a more precise answer.
    On the other side there are times when we should not take insurance at TC3 or even higher when there are extra 789s and extra aces.

    Question 2 : How often should we skip insurance at TC3 (HiLo) or higher at 2D with 75% pen?
    Of course, those two questions presume that we can count the Ten Ratio, no matter how we do it.

    Thanks

  2. #2


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    You’ve made some interesting points. First, a correction. Insurance threshold hi lo 6 deck is True 3.0. Insurance threshold at double deck is True 2.4.

    I don’t know off the top top of my head the answers to question 1, other than to say, whenever dealer has ace up, whenever faces comprise 4 of 12 cards remaining, or 33.3% deck remainder, insurance is taken, and further ratio of hands at or greater than True 3.0 that we should refrain from insurance. Further, answers are likely in Blackjack Attack.

    Now, for the good stuff - you’ve hit the nail right on the head. The 7,8,9 density directly impacts whether you take insurance or not below, at or above threshold. If you practice perfect insurance, you will know when to take insurance regardless of true count. If you don’t practice perfect insurance, then you will lose money at or above threshold whenever 7,8,9 density is surplus by taking insurance. You will also lose money by not taking insurance below threshold when there is a deficit of 7,8,9. Your other point whether to take insurance or not at threshold with ace surplus or deficit is also very valid.

    Perfect Insurance solves the problem you’re describing. I played today, taking insurance once when threshold was below index, and not at all above threshold. The deviations were based entirely on intermediate density.

    What you’ve not asked, which I’ll throw in as you seem quite perceptive - Consider the impact of intermediate density on your betting ramps. Further consider an upper and lower ramp based on that density.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Hello all
    I suspect Don has the answer to these two questions.
    I realized recently that perfect insurance (when tens are 33,3% of the deck composition) means that we should take insurance much more often than the estimated 25% for each dealer ace upcard seen, since TC3 or higher with HILO happens about 25% of the time when playing 2D at 75% pen.
    Not sure where you got this number, but it isn't true. For Hi-Lo, we get TC >= +3 only about 16.5% of the time (see the 78/104 charts in Chapter 10 of BJA3).

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Question 1 : How often does a 2-deck shoe is composed of tens in a ratio of 33,3% or higher?

    Perfect insurance means that we should take insurance even in some negative counts when the deck is short of 789s (uncounted cards in HiLo). A shortage of aces may also trigger insurance below TC3.
    My estimation from a 10 000 hands sample is that Perfect insurance means that we should take insurance in a ratio of about 1.5/1 compared to TC3 triggered insurance with HiLo but that may be inaccurate.
    I am sure Don has a more precise answer.
    On the other side there are times when we should not take insurance at TC3 or even higher when there are extra 789s and extra aces.
    Need to use a perfect insurance count (nine ranks each +1, all tens -2) and then run sims for how often to take insurance. For DD start the RC at -8, and whenever you reach 0, it's correct to take insurance. See what that frequency turns out to be.

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Question 2 : How often should we skip insurance at TC3 (HiLo) or higher at 2D with 75% pen?
    Of course, those two questions presume that we can count the Ten Ratio, no matter how we do it.
    Sorry, no idea off the top of my head for this one.

    Don

  4. #4


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    After reading countless forums and I've consider you a highly intelligent individual to say the least. Unfortunately, I'm a novice and appreciate any help. I'm currently using Hi Opt II (attempting side count) and it seems to work as blackjacks and 20s show up when the count is high, but I'm having troubles if I should hit anything higher than a 13? almost always when i hit anything above 13 with a high count, i BUST. willling to learn the best level 4 count if able to find.

  5. #5


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    Thanks Freightman. I don't write much here, but I have always enjoyed your posts and I appreciate your response. You certainly have all my respect. I am truly with you regarding adjusting betting ramp according to 789s density. I rarely have a max bet out when those cards are missing, especially 9s and 8s. If I max bet in those instances it's because the combined odds of getting a blackjack or hard 20 are way above the 14,3% starting point and that usually happens at very high TCs. So BJ and TT odds usually have to be 17% or higher for me to max bet. I want to double down max bets with confidence and in order to be confident with doubling 10s and 11s at max bet, I want 9s and 8s as back ups so if I don't get a Ten for 20 or 21, I am still in business with 18, 19, 20. Now you see me coming. A major problem occurs when there is a shortage of 987s in high counts. Your odds of getting your Ten on a double down may be higher, but if you don't get it, you get a low card and end up praying for the dealer bust. Then even in high counts deprived of 789s, the low card density may be higher than normal. That's not a great double down situation with a max bet out. I have no data and I may be wrong but I estimate that doubling down efficiency in those situations is around 55% (maybe even lower). On the other hand when the backups are well represented (especially 89s) the hard doubling down efficiency rate with 10s and 11s jumps to 65% and higher. Again, I have no data and I have never seen any study on that except from my practice play with CV.

  6. #6


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    Thanks for the correction, Don as well as Freightman. I understand TC 2.4 is thus the trigger at DD when HiLo. This reduces my insurance frequency difference with pure HiLo altough it will not always happen on the same hands. However, I do not use half-deck or quarter-deck adjustments. I can't do that since I focus on deck composition. I'll try to simulate what you suggest Don. ONE MORE QUESTION. What would be a good insurance efficiency rate with HiLo? The way I do it places me in a 40%-43% range at DD and I do not focus mainly on insurance.

  7. #7
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    @Secretariat -- please see the final few paragraphs of this: https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...jack-insurance

    I am not sure if this is what you are after, but I do give some numbers that may shed some light.
    Climate change blog: climatecasino.net

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by PhilThtone21 View Post
    After reading countless forums and I've consider you a highly intelligent individual to say the least. Unfortunately, I'm a novice and appreciate any help. I'm currently using Hi Opt II (attempting side count) and it seems to work as blackjacks and 20s show up when the count is high, but I'm having troubles if I should hit anything higher than a 13? almost always when i hit anything above 13 with a high count, i BUST. willling to learn the best level 4 count if able to find.
    A few comments.
    Hi Opt 2 CAN be a great count. To make it great, you need to ace side count perfectly. Betting correlation in hi opt 2 without ASC is a paltry 88% (I think), which is really shitty, and about 99% with perfect ASC. Might be a bit much for a novice. Further, are you playing mostly pitch or shoe. Hi opt 2 has a high playing efficiency as well as insurance correlation, which makes it ideal for lower spread pitch games, but difficult to handle well at 6 or 8 deck shoe.

    Don’t concern yourself with a level 4 - learn an easier count perfectly as well as the index play that accompanied it. This includes whether to surrender, hit or stand on your 13 v 10. Remember, your indices may change by rule set. Eventually, if you’re up to it, try a more lucrative count system. If you try to set 5he world on fire righ5 out if the gate, you will be disappointed.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    @Secretariat -- please see the final few paragraphs of this: https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...jack-insurance

    I am not sure if this is what you are after, but I do give some numbers that may shed some light.
    Pretty sure I saw some recent numbers differing from yours, giving house edge on insurance in the 7% range. Per your comments in link, that kind of margin justifies dealer taking 10 seconds to sweep the table asking if anyone wants insurance.

    Every once in a while you get a heads up game with a really really good dealer. When you get an ultra fast dealer with an ultra fast player, especially with a NHC game, you are in sync and can motor like no tomorrow.

    One particular dealer comes to mind, especially on the call for insurance. In a nano second, he declares insurance open insurance closed - he knew when I wanted insurance. Expanding his 40 minute shift to 1 hour for easy illustration, with ASM, 4.5/6, we averaged a shoe every 6 minutes, equating to 450 hands per hour. I'm more than happy to give up a few bells and whistles to get that kind of speed.

    https://youtu.be/N0GdQyIm7DU

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Thanks Freightman. I don't write much here, but I have always enjoyed your posts and I appreciate your response. You certainly have all my respect. I am truly with you regarding adjusting betting ramp according to 789s density. I rarely have a max bet out when those cards are missing, especially 9s and 8s. If I max bet in those instances it's because the combined odds of getting a blackjack or hard 20 are way above the 14,3% starting point and that usually happens at very high TCs. So BJ and TT odds usually have to be 17% or higher for me to max bet. I want to double down max bets with confidence and in order to be confident with doubling 10s and 11s at max bet, I want 9s and 8s as back ups so if I don't get a Ten for 20 or 21, I am still in business with 18, 19, 20. Now you see me coming. A major problem occurs when there is a shortage of 987s in high counts. Your odds of getting your Ten on a double down may be higher, but if you don't get it, you get a low card and end up praying for the dealer bust. Then even in high counts deprived of 789s, the low card density may be higher than normal. That's not a great double down situation with a max bet out. I have no data and I may be wrong but I estimate that doubling down efficiency in those situations is around 55% (maybe even lower). On the other hand when the backups are well represented (especially 89s) the hard doubling down efficiency rate with 10s and 11s jumps to 65% and higher. Again, I have no data and I have never seen any study on that except from my practice play with CV.
    I'm not going to go into detail here, consider a slightly different approach to intermediate density. The fact that you’re thinking about it might be enough to get you onto a superior track.

  11. #11


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    I am definitely curious to hear more about that. You can PM since the opposite doesn't work.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    I am definitely curious to hear more about that. You can PM since the opposite doesn't work.
    [email protected]

  13. #13


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    Thanks Dr. Eliot
    This is very informative and it's close to the results of my latest 10 000 hands CV practice run. I had a 10% return on insurance winning 38,1% of the time. I was over 40% for most of it but lost a few towards the end although it was the right choice. I took insurance 1,60% of the time (160), slightly under the 1,67% suggested based on the TC 2.4 threshold I assume. I use a different route than the TC but I'm in the ZONE. I did appreciate your book by the way. Thank you so much.

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