Dalmatian's 1st Trip

[dalmatian]

So Zeebabar does trip reports, so why shouldnt I? As many of you know, I have been working 2 jobs delivering pizzas and being a lab monkey for several years now. In 2019 through now I kicked it into overdrive working 100 hour weeks on a regular basis. I managed to save up a bankroll of 80,000$ a few weeks ago.

I am a contractor at my lab job so they required I take a month off. Since I had a decent bankroll I decided to hit the road the entire month and do a hail Mary. Since I live in the south, i was planning on hitting every casino in North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas (about 50 in total).

I have never played at this level and immediately ran into several problems as a result. First of all, carrying around tens of thousands of dollars is beyond stressful. Secondly, figuring out which spread to use on the varying games (some DD some shoe, some S17 some H17). It took me nearly the first 2 weeks of my month off just to get ready for my road trip. I was initially exhausted from working so much for so long the first week was just catching up on sleep. The second week became a mad dash to create a spread for all the games I would find as well as remember the indices (catch 63) for these games. I settled on a 2×50 -2×500 spread for DD and a 1×25- 2x500 spread for shoe. I also create a "universal" indices chart that kind of averaged all the indice numbers since I use hi low for shoe and halves for DD (the numbers are very similar). I also made a point to separate the S17 and H17 blatant differences (for example in H17 the standing indices for stiffs 15 and 16 vs dealer 7,8,9,X,A are much lower than the corresponding S17 indices). So long story short, the first 2 weeks flew by and I wasnt even on the road yet.

I finally hit the road the 3rd week. I played about 30 hours in North Carolina and Tunica. It was a great start. I immediately went up 10k in NC and decided to move on. I get to tunica and lost 12k but immediately got it all back. Then I slowly climbed to a high of +24k. Unfortunately, this became the end for me. I continued playing into the week (big mistake) and lost a few thousand back and get backed off. So I'm up 20k but now I'm fliered and done in Mississippi. I continue driving around Mississippi but realize the vast majority of the small casinos would never dream of taking my 2×500 action. Feeling exhausted and defeated, I retreated back to Atlanta after a week on the road and 30 hours played. I only generated about 6k of EV so my 20k win was definitely not deserved.

There are a few lessons I learned. The biggest one is that playing at purple chip level (as max bet) is an ENTIRELY new beast. I was lucky with the variance but just the process of carrying around tens of thousands of dollars in your pants and shirt pockets is so stressful and draining. I was so paranoid of being shorted by the dealers I was constantly counting my chips over and over again which definitely wore me down faster. I even caught a dealer trying to short me 500$ (he stacked the chips only 4 high instead of 5 high, for 5 stacks and counted them as 5 high). If I didnt count my chips down before I colored up I might have not caught it. I was fortunate enough to have 1500$ in dealer mispays, all from purple chips wins being paid out too generously. Finding casinos tolerant enough to take my action in the south was a real challenge. People make fun of Smallcap for tapping out but the real reason he had such bad variance is he is forced to use a very tight spread and extreme betting cover just to get any action down on the table. Betting at this level also requires extensive travel and flying to different parts of the country, all which involve substantial travel expenses which only increase ROR.

In summary, I was definitely disappointed at only getting 30 hours in. Winning 20,000$ shot my bankroll up so that I'm at about 110,000$ right now. Probably will plan to do another trip soon, but will definitely not be returning to Mississippi any time soon.

[Hsiaodi]

So Zeebabar does trip reports, so why shouldnt I? As many of you know, I have been working 2 jobs delivering pizzas and being a lab monkey for several years now. In 2019 through now I kicked it into overdrive working 100 hour weeks on a regular basis. I managed to save up a bankroll of 80,000$ a few weeks ago.

I am a contractor at my lab job so they required I take a month off. Since I had a decent bankroll I decided to hit the road the entire month and do a hail Mary. Since I live in the south, i was planning on hitting every casino in North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas (about 50 in total).

I have never played at this level and immediately ran into several problems as a result. First of all, carrying around tens of thousands of dollars is beyond stressful. Secondly, figuring out which spread to use on the varying games (some DD some shoe, some S17 some H17). It took me nearly the first 2 weeks of my month off just to get ready for my road trip. I was initially exhausted from working so much for so long the first week was just catching up on sleep. The second week became a mad dash to create a spread for all the games I would find as well as remember the indices (catch 63) for these games. I settled on a 2×50 -2×500 spread for DD and a 1×25- 2x500 spread for shoe. I also create a "universal" indices chart that kind of averaged all the indice numbers since I use hi low for shoe and halves for DD (the numbers are very similar). I also made a point to separate the S17 and H17 blatant differences (for example in H17 the standing indices for stiffs 15 and 16 vs dealer 7,8,9,X,A are much lower than the corresponding S17 indices). So long story short, the first 2 weeks flew by and I wasnt even on the road yet.

I finally hit the road the 3rd week. I played about 30 hours in North Carolina and Tunica. It was a great start. I immediately went up 10k in NC and decided to move on. I get to tunica and lost 12k but immediately got it all back. Then I slowly climbed to a high of +24k. Unfortunately, this became the end for me. I continued playing into the week (big mistake) and lost a few thousand back and get backed off. So I'm up 20k but now I'm fliered and done in Mississippi. I continue driving around Mississippi but realize the vast majority of the small casinos would never dream of taking my 2×500 action. Feeling exhausted and defeated, I retreated back to Atlanta after a week on the road and 30 hours played. I only generated about 6k of EV so my 20k win was definitely not deserved.

There are a few lessons I learned. The biggest one is that playing at purple chip level (as max bet) is an ENTIRELY new beast. I was lucky with the variance but just the process of carrying around tens of thousands of dollars in your pants and shirt pockets is so stressful and draining. I was so paranoid of being shorted by the dealers I was constantly counting my chips over and over again which definitely wore me down faster. I even caught a dealer trying to short me 500$ (he stacked the chips only 4 high instead of 5 high, for 5 stacks and counted them as 5 high). If I didnt count my chips down before I colored up I might have not caught it. I was fortunate enough to have 1500$ in dealer mispays, all from purple chips wins being paid out too generously. Finding casinos tolerant enough to take my action in the south was a real challenge. People make fun of Smallcap for tapping out but the real reason he had such bad variance is he is forced to use a very tight spread and extreme betting cover just to get any action down on the table. Betting at this level also requires extensive travel and flying to different parts of the country, all which involve substantial travel expenses which only increase ROR.

In summary, I was definitely disappointed at only getting 30 hours in. Winning 20,000$ shot my bankroll up so that I'm at about 110,000$ right now. Probably will plan to do another trip soon, but will definitely not be returning to Mississippi any time soon.

Thanks for sharing.
Good variance!

[Freightman]

My comments
1. You’re not ready. Why on Earth would you Hail Mary an 80k bankroll.
2. With 30 days to play, it takes 15 of 30 days to organize? You should have organized before you started.
3. 2x50 to 2x500 as standard spread on DD. What were you thinking? I know stores that take that action, but I would never use that as a standard spread.
4. 1x25 to 2x500 as standard spread on 6d. What were you thinking? I know stores that take that action, but I would never use that as a standard thread.
5. 10k won in North Carolina at those spreads - big deal - who cares.
6. I’ve seen Small Cap spread - it’s good enough at those stakes. He tapped out for different reasons.
7. Why do you need to create a universal indices chart to cater to differences between hi lo and halves. They are virtually identical to begin with.
8. Lost Mississippi first trip. You can’t earn if you can’t play. Almost all of my back offs outside of Vegas were cumulative win.
I haven’t bothered to sim your stakes, especially since pen, rules etc. are not stated. I will make a prediction though - you’ll tap out unless you develop more discipline. You’re far better off utilizing the fearsome power of the FBM ASC Halves Advanced with Dual Ramp System. Just my $.02.

[Freightman]

My comments
1. You’re not ready. Why on Earth would you Hail Mary an 80k bankroll.
2. With 30 days to play, it takes 15 of 30 days to organize? You should have organized before you started.
3. 2x50 to 2x500 as standard spread on DD. What were you thinking? I know stores that take that action, but I would never use that as a standard spread.
4. 1x25 to 2x500 as standard spread on 6d. What were you thinking? I know stores that take that action, but I would never use that as a standard thread.
5. 10k won in North Carolina at those spreads - big deal - who cares.
6. I’ve seen Small Cap spread - it’s good enough at those stakes. He tapped out for different reasons.
7. Why do you need to create a universal indices chart to cater to differences between hi lo and halves. They are virtually identical to begin with.
8. Lost Mississippi first trip. You can’t earn if you can’t play. Almost all of my back offs outside of Vegas were cumulative win.
I haven’t bothered to sim your stakes, especially since pen, rules etc. are not stated. I will make a prediction though - you’ll tap out unless you develop more discipline. You’re far better off utilizing the fearsome power of the FBM ASC Halves Advanced with Dual Ramp System. Just my $.02.

[CEO1]

I agree with Freightman...those spreads just won't work for long....your gonna get backed off. I always try to avoid DD anyways and live with a 1-12 spread at most. For someone who seems to really work hard for their money, I think you are playing too high of stakes for you to feel comfortable with. I really admire your work ethic and saving 100k. Try to play at stakes you feel comfortable with. BTW, "Hail Mary's" are never a good mind set in BJ or Investing. I cannot ever remember thinking that way and think it is extremely dangerous.

[dalmatian]

@ freightman
@CEO1

I meant hail mary in terms of getting as many hours in as possible. I was shooting for 200+.

It took 2 weeks to get ready bc i have literally been busting my ass nonstop for the last year and a half. I didnt have ANY time to keep my counting skills fresh.

2x50-2x500 on DD and 1X25-2X500 on shoe is negligible risk on 80k.....ROR ~ 2%

[dalmatian]

@ freightman

there ARE subtle differences between hi low and halves. One example that comes to mind is 3,3 vs 8. In hi low this index is +5, while for halves no index exists. anyways, I just created a universal chart for my system of counting (hi low for shoe and halves DD). This way i dont need to remember two charts for my two systems........

[dalmatian]

I simmed my spread on CVCX. For the crappier games (H17 shoe, mediocre pen) my win rate is 150$/hr and ror is close to 4% (N0 is 300 hours). For the better games (S17/H17 DD) my win rate is 250-300$/hr with ror 1-1.5% (N0 is 150-200 hours).

[Freightman]

You have much to learn. Worry less about a minor fraction of a point on an index play, and learn more on nuance, judgement and comportment.

You can’t hide counting, but you can masquerade well as a bad counter, or a counter at supposed low spread and as a non threat. I’ve just begun to play again in my local venues after a long multi year hiatus, and I’d rather play than not. I’m achieving remarkable results restricting my spread, liming my wins and by utilizing a modified version of my fearsome Halves FBM ASC Restrained Advanced System I would strongly suggest that non restricted utilization of my strategies would crush your EV with lower max bets.

[dalmatian]

Freightman,

you want me to play with lower spreads? sure, when my bank is big enough. I didn't mind losing Mississippi because it is a sweat shop and only a couple of casinos in the entire state (of the 28) take black action.......

[Freightman]

Freightman,

you want me to play with lower spreads? sure, when my bank is big enough. I didn't mind losing Mississippi because it is a sweat shop and only a couple of casinos in the entire state (of the 28) take black action.......

Nuances, judgement and comportment are only a part of my subtle message. I laid the gauntlet to the forum a while back on finding the non counter intuitive strategy to increased EV. Nobody took me up on the challenge. I’m sure you can find the thread.

Interestingly enough, you’ve stated previously your enormous skills on what may, or may not be bullshit. If it wasn’t, then you’re not far off. Further, as a self proclaimed professional, you should strive to achieve a close to 0 ROR on a larger bankroll. You’ll go haywire on your proclaimed spreads with max after max bet losing. Think about the possibility of losing 20-25k on a single shoe. It’s possible.