Moving to Max EV levels (your phrase) to conserve cards in positive counts seems a little silly.
What you’re saying is that, given proper execution, you’d be willing to significantly increase negative variance, reduce your max bet (in theory). Your approach could easily break bankrolls of players playing on shoestrings, test the sanity of those with strong bankrolls - and you’re doing this to get more hands in a positive shoe?
While it’s commendable in theory, you don’t do so at the expense of a purposeful bad play (that’s your approach) to squeeze 1 more hand out of good shoe.
I for one, utilize a combination of EV maximizing and Risk Averse plays, and I do so intelligently. Now, if you want to argue theory, have at her.
Zee
Using his phrasing, and executing his plan goes against everything you have espoused - most importantly, it ignores your inner Id developed, as you have said, by growing up in poverty and fiscal restraint.
Not that your methods are optimal, because they’re not, but it satisfies your particular psychological profile.
Just words. Show me the sim with a better SCORE. SCORE/100 is your EV as percentage of your bankroll per 100 hands betting full kelly, or 200 hands betting half kelly. It is the only number that really matters about a counting system, besides difficulty.
Even if you're constrained by table limits instead of bankroll, getting the money in and out without CTRs is the constraint, so RA is still worth using, and score is still the best benchmark. Saving a few cards by hard doubling closer to the maxEV index so you can get an extra hand at the end is like getting slightly better pen and overall the score goes up. OTOH I use full RA for all the splits and 18+ soft doubles because those waste cards.
If you're using ~50 indices, KO will be 15% better.
If you're using more indices, the gap is a bit smaller. HiLo scales better with extremely large numbers of indices because the true count is more accurate at extremes. HiLo almost catches up to KO when you're using 200+ indices. Almost nobody actually uses that many correctly.
I’m truly amazed at all of the hot shots who think they know all. What’s your bankroll? Why on Gods green Earth would anyone with any significant bankroll play EV max (except splits and soft doubles Per your commentary) at full Kelly. If in fact that’s what you’re doing, then you have a death wish. Half Kelly is more acceptable, but even that could lead to significant losses. You’d better have a strong roll, or you’ll soon have money issues. Your approach is death for anyone with a shoestring roll.
Now, SCORE is a great benchmark, but they’re other good benchmarks. Those that attempt to micromanage to the extreme max are usually fools soon parted with their money. My constraints are common sense, my blackjack bankroll as a portion of my net worth is minor.
Now, granted I look at the long term versus your obvious slash and burn approach, and further, it’s also pretty clear to me that our circumstances differ. I’m long past the point where I’m prepared to hit the road full time to max out EV. Having said that, I’m more than happy with my skill level and approach to the game, though judging by your comments, your earnings surpass mine. My paltry profits since starting up again first of the month are $6700 over 20-25 hours, and I’m not even close to pushing it. I basically play to a 0 ROR. You mention count difficulty - I know my system inside out, with all of its intricacies, gambits, ploys, controls etc etc.
By the way, I think you’re missing a crucial point - RA allows a higher max bet, or maintain your EV max bet using a RA approach using additional EV gained to reduce variance. Do yourself a favour and read FBM Basic and Advanced opening post, and see if you can find the not so obvious theory that is a part of a part of my play strategy.
For those following Freightman’s Forays, more descriptive commentary forthcoming, maybe tomorrow or the next day.
It would be more proper to say that True Count profits are higher at extremes. With positive counts utilizing indices to win more and at negatives using 8nduces to lose less.. HiLo scales better with extremely large numbers of indices because the true count is more accurate at extremes. HiLo almost catches up to KO when you're using 200+ indices. Almost nobody actually uses that many correctly.
Youre also losing sight of the fact that different people have different motivations, aspirations and goals.
and thus, increase in advantage per true count on extreme positives occurs due to use if indices
Last edited by Freightman; 10-14-2020 at 07:05 PM. Reason: To add last line
No matter what kelly fraction you choose to play with, maximizing SCORE is maximizing EV. Holding ROR constant, the system with the higher SCORE will earn more money. The kelly fraction doesn't affect your SCORE so disregard the kelly fraction in the sim screenshot. I have 1.5M so it's impossible to bet more than 1/4 kelly in most places. But I'd still use RA to avoid cashin/cashout problems.
Regardless of your CTR concerns, playing EV Max strategies will give you problems. You can’t win if you can’t play. Having said that, assuming your 1.5 mill is BJ roll - you can definitely afford EV max - don’t have to tell anyone that. oh, and it’s significantly more than my BJ roll. You will have to travel to play.
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