See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 30

Thread: When to leave in UNITS: Math or Preserved Luck

  1. #1


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    When to leave in UNITS: Math or Preserved Luck

    I know Blackjack as an AP in one long marathon session. Every game spits out different outcomes. It is not as simple as if I'm up $500 I'm going to head home. And repeat this game plan process tomorrow. In this scenario; if it takes you between 2-3 hours to get to the casino from your home. (Total of 4-6 hours there and back)

    Q: How many UNITS do you win in order for you to decided it's time to go home?
    - Is there an optimum win unit amount? (20 units = $500) or
    - Maybe an optimal unit amount in terms of hours/win% ratio? Winning $1,000 (40 units) in 4 hours at a probability of 72.47%. (So if I win 40 units, I leave. Regardless if it took me 10 minutes or 10 hours. 72% in 4 hours sounds like a good threshold. - Achievable and reasonable) or
    - Is there a mathematical calculation using standard deviation to determine the optimal total of units to be won with a certain bet spread?


    To give you a sample visual. Below is a sim that I did on CVCX to display the bet spread, goals - odds of making goals by hour, SD, Expected Results, and probability %.


    Bet Spread: $25-$400 (16-1), $50.67/hour
    Standard Deviation Hour: $1,318 / Expected Results: 8 hours, Probability 99.7% = $-10,700 to +$11,500

    To win $1,000 (40 units) in:
    4 hours = 72.47%
    8 hours = 81.09%
    16 hours = 87.33%

    To win $2,000 (80 units) in:
    4 hours = 47.43%
    8 hours = 62.59%
    16 hours = 74.45%

    To win $3,000 (120 units) in:
    4 hours = 27.79%
    8 hours = 45.82%
    16 hours = 61.88%
    Attached Images Attached Images

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    That’s a high variance game, especially to drive 2-3 hours to get to. On the positive side, looks like the bankroll is nice and solid.

    That being said, at a $25 min game - have a look at your sims with rules indicated and both a 4.5 and 5.0 deck pen. Then, sim a heads up game with those better games. and sim it at 200 HPH. Note the joyful improvement in all areas.

    Oh, to answer your question - it might be one long session, with 4/6, I might tend to leave after making a grand. However, if I made the grand quick and had 4.5 and especially 5/6 - I would definitely keep piling those hours on.

    Oh, one last thing - FBM ASC Advanced. I very recently played my first time since February - 2.5 hours. I played a non standard (for me) 3 player table, non standard (for me) $5-$200 table, nicely separated by plexiglass. Among other things, I needed to get the ring rust out. I might be induced to report on that.

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    That being said, at a $25 min game - have a look at your sims with rules indicated and both a 4.5 and 5.0 deck pen. Then, sim a heads up game with those better games. and sim it at 200 HPH. Note the joyful improvement in all areas.
    I didn't focus on the conditions specifically. I just entered some numbers to generate win amounts and the probability of obtaining the amount within certain playing hours.

    I was trying to display if a player had x amount BR and was betting $25-400. To have a visual of how much they could win within reasonable time. And maybe that'll determine on when to be content with their winnings and leave.

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Ultramood View Post
    I didn't focus on the conditions specifically. I just entered some numbers to generate win amounts and the probability of obtaining the amount within certain playing hours.

    I was trying to display if a player had x amount BR and was betting $25-400. To have a visual of how much they could win within reasonable time. And maybe that'll determine on when to be content with their winnings and leave.
    The down anD dirty of my post - tend to leave quicker with an assured win and shitty conditions, as in 4.0/6. Pile on the hours with same rules better deck pen and heads up.

    Do yourself a favour, and sim with actual rules and deck pens. s8ms will be far more accurate and will make the decision making process much better.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    The down anD dirty of my post - tend to leave quicker with an assured win and shitty conditions, as in 4.0/6. Pile on the hours with same rules better deck pen and heads up.

    Do yourself a favour, and sim with actual rules and deck pens. s8ms will be far more accurate and will make the decision making process much better.
    should add, when leaving a shitty conditions zone, go search for better condition zones.

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    For me, the answers to all of your questions are, NO! If you travel 2-3 hours to go to a casino, hit a win threshold in 10 minutes, are you REALLY going to be dumb enough to leave? What a waste of your time! Stay three more hours and win a couple of thousand more! The idea of "win stops" is something that has never crossed my mind nor have I ever considered it in 45 years of playing. It simply makes no sense at all. Do people play that way? Absolutely! People do a lot of stupid things. This is one of them.

    Don

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    The idea of "win stops" is something that has never crossed my mind nor have I ever considered it in 45 years of playing. It simply makes no sense at all.
    Au contraire, Don.

    If you're playing unrated and aren't going to return to this place for a while, I agree with you. However, it makes sense if you have a local casino that tolerates you and your goal is longevity. Last thing you'd want to do is have an unusually large win that attracts attention.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The only reason that would justify leaving after winning a certain amount is longevity.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Au contraire, Don.

    If you're playing unrated and aren't going to return to this place for a while, I agree with you. However, it makes sense if you have a local casino that tolerates you and your goal is longevity. Last thing you'd want to do is have an unusually large win that attracts attention.
    You have been saying a lot of things that I have been thinking and it has been very encouraging. Thank you sir

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    For me, the answers to all of your questions are, NO! If you travel 2-3 hours to go to a casino, hit a win threshold in 10 minutes, are you REALLY going to be dumb enough to leave? What a waste of your time! Stay three more hours and win a couple of thousand more! The idea of "win stops" is something that has never crossed my mind nor have I ever considered it in 45 years of playing. It simply makes no sense at all. Do people play that way? Absolutely! People do a lot of stupid things. This is one of them.

    Don
    Longevity matters, heat matters. Type of casino and playing conditions matter. At casinos, as winnings pile up in front of you, comes a time when you begin attracting attention. Crowded conditions, much bigger bettors around you, other players with chips stacked in front of them, you might stay longer. In some casinos with just two tables, you happen to be the big bettor and big winner, leaving before being observed too long is important. In some casinos, $1k win attracts attention, other casinos don’t blink at someone winning $5k.

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Longevity matters, heat matters. Type of casino and playing conditions matter. At casinos, as winnings pile up in front of you, comes a time when you begin attracting attention.
    ZeeBabar, you just ruined bjanalyst's day. When he has plenty of extra red chips in front of him his only thought is that he can now put those red chips to good use by keeping lots of extra side counts.

  12. #12


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    ZeeBabar, you just ruined bjanalyst's day. When he has plenty of extra red chips in front of him his only thought is that he can now put those red chips to good use by keeping lots of extra side counts.
    When tired and mind begins wandering, keeps a side count of the good looking babes in th pit area, multiply by two to get a true boob count.

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    When tired and mind begins wandering, keeps a side count of the good looking babes in th pit area, multiply by two to get a true boob count.
    Zee
    Thats an RBC (Running Boob Count) That needs to be converted to TBC (True Boob Count) The fractional aspect of the calculation indicates the HBC (Halves Boob Count). The QBC (Quality of Boob Count) is a landmark development in the development of the sport.

    The sport has created delightful accessorial add ons. For now, I will leave it to the readers imagination to describe the ever increasing line of For Sale Products.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. 2 units at tc 2 or tc 3?
    By Bob6 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 04-26-2018, 08:26 PM
  2. Why You Need 1,000 Units
    By Member Name Hidden in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 06-18-2014, 09:50 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.