Sports picks

**drunk** · 09-05-2023, 02:21 AM

Originally Posted by Archvaldor

The issue with milking promos is that this is generally better achieved by locking in a contrary position with another book.

A suggestion: this type of play becomes a LOT more attractive if you can find another play that is anti-correlated with it. A 1.34% edge looks a lot more practical and interesting when you can reduce the risk around it in and the trend line of your bankroll is smooth and upward. I wonder if there is a similar offsetting bet to do with totals or something that would tend to win when a bet against the spread would lose.

if you lock in a contrary position with another book you guarantee yourself losing the vig - 4.55% on the $ amount of the 2 bets combined
unless you get a better line on one side of the bets and there's no guarantee that you can do that -

but yes, you are correct about the risk - there is still risk - hopefully the high # of games in the NFL regular season - 272 - and the fact that the bettor would be betting every game - and the fact that he has a good bet - would cause the risk to lessen considerably

and if the bettor does this over 5 years - that's over 1,300 games

I'm not a mathlete - but I would estimate the risk, even for just 1 year - to be fairly small and manageable

if the player wants to reduce his risk further - looking back at that link - all away underdogs ats had a positive 2.57% r.o.i. - betting just these instead of all way ats would probably reduce the no. of total bets by about one third

betting fewer games would likely reduce the value of promos and bonuses he gets unless he bet a larger amount because of the higher r.o.i.

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**Archvaldor** · 09-05-2023, 06:14 AM

Originally Posted by drunk

if you lock in a contrary position with another book you guarantee yourself losing the vig - 4.55% on the $ amount of the 2 bets combined
unless you get a better line on one side of the bets and there's no guarantee that you can do that -

but yes, you are correct about the risk - there is still risk - hopefully the high # of games in the NFL regular season - 272 - and the fact that the bettor would be betting every game - and the fact that he has a good bet - would cause the risk to lessen considerably

and if the bettor does this over 5 years - that's over 1,300 games

I'm not a mathlete - but I would estimate the risk, even for just 1 year - to be fairly small and manageable

if the player wants to reduce his risk further - looking back at that link - all away underdogs ats had a positive 2.57% r.o.i. - betting just these instead of all way ats would probably reduce the no. of total bets by about one third

betting fewer games would likely reduce the value of promos and bonuses he gets unless he bet a larger amount because of the higher r.o.i.

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What online bonus hustlers traditionally did was try and middle the book so if the number came up they won both bets or tied one and won the other. This was very profitable if you could get money down and move it around fast enough.

I always found the idea of doing what you describe very attractive. Almost passive income: just shove down money on away dogs at a decent price, requires no thought. Could be done in seconds. I'm surprised this strategy never became popular. Never heard of any one actually doing it though-I guess we are all vain enough to think we can do better.

There's a guy in the UK called Joseph Buchadahl who does something similar with money line favourites. He got a huge data sample-hundreds of thousands of games. That's the only actual example i can think of.

**drunk** · 09-07-2023, 03:05 AM

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from the article________________hey, it ain't easy____________52.4% winners ats will about break you even - (NFL)

"For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last

season."

I guess they woulda done better on their best bets__________I dunno__________I would bet that way less than half showed a profit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...t-bets-week-1/

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**365** · 09-09-2023, 11:05 PM

Originally Posted by Archvaldor

The issue with milking promos is that this is generally better achieved by locking in a contrary position with another book.

A suggestion: this type of play becomes a LOT more attractive if you can find another play that is anti-correlated with it. A 1.34% edge looks a lot more practical and interesting when you can reduce the risk around it in and the trend line of your bankroll is smooth and upward. I wonder if there is a similar offsetting bet to do with totals or something that would tend to win when a bet against the spread would lose.

Totally agree on this. But I guess it also depends on the strength of the data you trust and the transparency of its source. Nowadays, numerous API services provide real-time data, which might help bettors make smart decisions in a matter of seconds.

By the way, Archvaldor, you might find this interesting. I came across a sports API service recently known as "365 odds api" that offers real-time American football odds data. I wonder if utilizing these kinds of platforms could help in testing the away underdogs strategy that you've mentioned here. They even have parameters which can be a valuable asset like player statistics, outcomes, events, etc. It's quite a novel concept for me, but it seems promising.

**Archvaldor** · 09-12-2023, 12:46 AM

Originally Posted by 365

Totally agree on this. But I guess it also depends on the strength of the data you trust and the transparency of its source. Nowadays, numerous API services provide real-time data, which might help bettors make smart decisions in a matter of seconds.

By the way, Archvaldor, you might find this interesting. I came across a sports API service recently known as "365 odds api" that offers real-time American football odds data. I wonder if utilizing these kinds of platforms could help in testing the away underdogs strategy that you've mentioned here. They even have parameters which can be a valuable asset like player statistics, outcomes, events, etc. It's quite a novel concept for me, but it seems promising.

Ty for the heads-up. Chat-gpt is a real game changer for stuff like this. You can ask it to come up with a program to analyze data like that and find betting systems and it will do it. It gets it wrong a lot but you know if the code gives you an error message something went wrong so you can just keep feeding it back to the AI till it gets it right. Even with zero programming knowledge.

Most variables aren't important. Processing the key variables accurately IS.

**drunk** · 09-30-2023, 02:56 AM

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I posted earlier (the link is one post up) that Mike Shackleford tracked thousands of NFL games and found away underdogs to win 53.75% with a 2.57% r.o.i.

I also noted that the away pick had the highest r.o.i. by far of 13.25% but only 59 games were tracked

I postulated that this might mean that away dogs that got 4 points or fewer might have a higher r.o.i.

I personally tracked over 300 games and found that to be true - away underdogs that got 4 points or fewer won about 57.6 % in my tracking for an r.o.i. of about a 10% - a pretty good reason to be hopeful imo

based on that and including 2 other picks not based on this but on handicapping here are my picks for this weekend which includes one NCAA picks

Georgia State -1 over Troy_____________________9/30 (today)_____________7 p.m.

Week 4 NFL picks:

Rams +1

Bucs +3

Ravens +1.5

Dolphins +2.5

Ravens/Browns - under 39________________glta

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**drunk** · 09-30-2023, 07:56 AM

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one more NCAA pick for today - game in about one hour - now a total of 7 picks for the weekend

James Madison - 2.5 over South Alabama

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**Midwest Player** · 10-02-2023, 01:43 AM

Talk about bad luck. I have now lost my last 6 bets in a row at Caesars sports book. The latest being the Chiefs at -8. I guess Taylor Swift didn't cheer them on enough.

**Archvaldor** · 10-05-2023, 03:37 AM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Talk about bad luck. I have now lost my last 6 bets in a row at Caesars sports book. The latest being the Chiefs at -8. I guess Taylor Swift didn't cheer them on enough.

I wouldn't call that bad luck. To put it in perspective I once failed to win 24 straight hands of blackjack. Look up the odds on that.

You'll bounce back if you have an edge.

**drunk** · 10-07-2023, 02:26 AM

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some NCAA and NFL picks for today and tomorrow

last weekend, my first weekend posting football picks, I went 5-2

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Temple + 14 over UTSA

EMU - 2.5 over Ball State

Arkansas State + 15.5 over Troy

Alabama - 2.5 over Texas A&M

USF - 3.5 over UAB

Colorado -3.5 over AS

Maryland +17.5 over Ohio State

Saints + 1 over Patriots

Texans + 1.5 over Falcons

Jets +2.5 over Broncos

Cowboys + 3.5 over 49ers

Saints/Patriots under 39____________glta

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