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Thread: Sports picks

  1. #92


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    .

    no action yesterday - Alfaro didn't play - I do this in the early a.m. when I have energy - should wait for the lineups but don't want to - so I'll waste some time sometimes - have plenty of that

    6/28 - okay - the kinna bet nobody wants - but I'll take it - Jake Marisnick of the Tigers - the guy has ZERO homers in the last 66 games

    no homer - - 1600 - risk 8 units

    going up against Dane Dunning who is having a great year for the Rangers who gives up only 0.5 homers per 9 innings - the league average is about 1.25

    the poor guy doesn't have a prayer of hitting a homer

    icing on the cake - he only has 8 at bats in the last 5 games - looks like they pulled him for a pinch hitter

    looks pretty obvious to me - the shorter the payout - the better chance you have of finding a good bet - longshot lovers love the big payouts but terrible EV on the other side




    DraftKings is offering Zack McKinstry at +1100 to hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
    they don't offer the other side - that he won't hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
    a fair price would be about +2400
    how pathetic do you have to be to take a bet like that_____?
    they're really some sharks - there's blood in the water

    .
    Last edited by drunk; 06-28-2023 at 07:23 AM.
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  2. #93


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    a fair price would be about +2400
    You meant -2400.

    Don

  3. #94


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You meant -2400.

    Don
    I was referring to a fair price on the chance that he he would hit a double (about + 2400) in his first plate appearance

    but the way I wrote it - it wasn't at all clear - really bad - thanks for pointing that out - I'm kinna ashamed - I was an English Major_____________-:]

    an English Major who obviously believes strongly in literary license_________-:]

    .
    Last edited by drunk; 06-28-2023 at 12:26 PM.
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  4. #95


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    Traveling out of state this weekend to a state that allows full online gambling. Plan on taking advantage of the sign up bonuses. @drunk are you doing any ML bets this weekend?

  5. #96


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    Quote Originally Posted by name banned View Post
    Traveling out of state this weekend to a state that allows full online gambling. Plan on taking advantage of the sign up bonuses. @drunk are you doing any ML bets this weekend?
    .
    4-2 +.82

    before we get to betting - Domingo German of the Yankees threw a perfect game last night shutting down the As
    the first since 2012 and the 24th in MLB history___________woohoo_______!!!

    I'm going to take a break on picking for a while

    the modus operandi of these predatory online books re prop bets:

    they totally screw the longshot bettors knowing that while dreaming of a big payday they are blind to how bad the bet really is

    on the other side they don't get pounded because bettors don't like very small payouts

    I have to grudgingly admit that it's a very sharp strategy - maybe even brilliant

    I would not have guessed that the longshot lovers would be willing to make bets that are that bad - they obviously are

    re the props:

    anybody can find a hypothetical edge by looking at these props priced at -600 or higher and crunching the numbers at baseballreference.com - using all the relevant detail available

    I looked at mainly the no home run prop pitting weak batters against very strong pitchers

    it took quite a bit of time - maybe one out of 5 that I looked at showed a potential edge high enough to be interesting

    and of course, the very small payouts are a turn off to many - but hey, an edge is an edge

    .
    Last edited by drunk; 06-29-2023 at 05:53 AM.
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  6. #97


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    .
    re NFL betting

    I believe that a great deal of unpredictability means that the public pick - the fave - ats - will overall do poorly over a number of games

    and strong predictability means that the public pick - the fave - ats - will do well over a number of games

    to test out my theory I used NFL historical data - see link - and looked at the first 2 weeks of every NFL season for the past 10 years

    I believe that in the first 2 weeks of the NFL season there is much unpredictability - new players on each team as well as some key players are now a year older and other things also

    the faves did not have a winning record in even one single first 2 week period over the last 10 years

    the faves won 140 games and the dogs won 183 games - pushes were not considered

    in the first 2 weeks of the last 10 years the underdogs won 56.6% of the games which translates into a r.o.i. of about 8% for anyone who bet on all of the underdogs during that period ats

    8% is far from spectacular but it's a fairly healthy margin

    then I looked at weeks 13 and 14 of the last 10 years believing that the abilities of the teams would by then be well known and that there would be strong predictability

    for the last 10 years in weeks 13 and 14 the favorite won 164 games and lost 139 - the fave won 54% of their games ats

    this is doing no handicapping at all - other then speculating about the lack or presence of predictability

    I tend to believe that blindly betting on faves during any period is not a good idea - but blindly betting on dogs during the first 2 weeks of the season is likely to be profitable



    https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/
    Last edited by drunk; 07-03-2023 at 02:11 AM.
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  7. #98


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    .
    the NBA and also college hoops is different than the other major sports because NBA home teams wins 62.5% of their games - a much higher % than any other major sport

    college hoops teams win a little higher % at home I believe

    I wanted to see if the record of great home teams ats was very good and if terrible away teams would have a horrible away record ats

    for the last season I only considered teams that were great at home winning over 67% of their games

    and teams that were horrible away losing over 67% of their games

    as you can see from the link their were 6 teams that had great home records winning over 67% of their home games - Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, Cavaliers, Nuggets and Grizzlies

    all 6 of these teams also had a great ats record - winning 143 games and losing 97 ats - winning 59.5% for an impressive 13.73% r.o.i.

    there were 3 teams with terrible away records losing more than 67% of their away games - Rockets, Spurs, and Pistons

    every one of those 3 teams also got crushed ats when away

    they lost 79 times and won 47 times - losing 63.8% ats and giving the bettor who bet against them every time a fantastic 19.7% r.o.i.

    of course, you can't know at the beginning of the season which teams will be great at home and which teams will be horrible away

    but you can know it by mid-season at the All Star break and the % will likely follow for the entire year

    we're talking about teams that are great at home with an overall home record such as 32-9 -

    and teams that are horrible away with an overall away record such as 8-33

    I could not find records such as this for other years - but it is a fairly significant sample size - over 350 games total - of course there's never a guarantee - I will for sure track this next season

    pushes were not considered


    https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/against-the-spread/
    Last edited by drunk; 07-05-2023 at 01:33 PM.
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  8. #99


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    .

    I wondered if MLB totals were an efficient market when the totals are set high or low

    doing no handicapping - using covers.com - the final line which they show the day after the game - I've tracked the entire 2023 MLB season when the total was set at 7.5 or lower

    the over has won so far - going 134-100 - 57.6% - I also tracked 50 games of the previous season when the total was 7.5 or lower and got the over winning 29-21 - almost the exact same %

    I was going to wait to post the entire season - but this seems pretty strong - almost 300 games were tracked - so I posted now in case anybody wanted to bet this the 2nd half of the season - we're at the All Star break - the next league game is this Friday

    I will continue to track this until I've finished the entire 2023 season and will see if the 2nd half matches up with the first half

    I don't really know the reason for this - don't want to make a guess - but if I had to guess I would guess the books are pushing the line down beyond what it really should be knowing more bettors will bet the under when there is a very strong pitcher or pitchers

    I also tracked the o/u when the total was set high - at 9.5 or greater - I tracked about 100 games and found nothing interesting - no edge to be found

    .
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  9. #100


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    I'll offer an opinion--a scenario that I have seen played out dozens upon dozens of times, most recently just the other night when Domingo German pitched brilliantly for the Yankees, striking out 9 in five innings, giving up one run, and having thrown just 74 pitchers. Score is 1-1. Asshole Boone, as is his custom, takes German out!! Brings in the pathetic Yankee bullpen. Final score: Cubs 7, Yankees 4!!

    Today's baseball environment is the most pitiful I have seen in my over 70 years of watching the game. Pampered pitchers pitch once every FIVE days, and when they do, they pitch five innings and then leave. Best conceivable job in baseball!! Somewhere, Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, and Whitey Ford are turning over in their graves.

    Anyway, my two cents as to why the marquee match-ups, with the 7.5 totals, often turn out to be two rival bullpens fucking up the game for their respective starting pitchers.

    Don

  10. #101


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    Domingo German has only pitched one complete game in his entire career in 87 starts - his perfect game - couldn't take him out of that one

    Koufax pitched 27 complete games in his last year_______________(-:\

    .
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  11. #102


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    brand new Ncaaf rules - no stoppage of the clock after a first down except in the last 2 minutes of the first half and the game
    the NCAA estimates there will be 7 or 8 fewer plays per game
    might help the unders
    still some very high totals out there - may not have been factored in correctly - not sure about this
    picking under a very high total


    am picking U So. Florida/Western KY U 71 for tomorrow


    USF went under that total 6-5-1 last year


    WKU went under that total 13-1 last year


    .
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  12. #103


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    I just took another look at Mike Shackleford's tracking of NFL betting - see link - he is a well respected gambling analyst
    and he tracked over 3,000 games
    he shows all away against the spread winning 53.10% with a postive r.o.i. of 1.34%
    and all home against the spread winning just 46.90% with a negative r.o.i. of 10.28%

    that's a really huge difference - kinna astonishing that a bettor would likely win doing nothing other than betting all away against the spread - although the win would likely be a very small amount -

    if this continues to hold up it means that the home teams are way, way over bet - and that does seem to make sense - ploppies believing that the home advantage is greater than it actually is



    this is potentially valuable for a bettor who's not trying to crush the lines but wants to milk promos and bonuses from the various sports books - and there are now lots of them legal in many states




    .
    https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
    Last edited by drunk; 09-03-2023 at 04:03 AM.
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  13. #104


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    .

    I just took another look at Mike Shackleford's tracking of NFL betting - see link - he is a well respected gambling analyst
    and he tracked over 3,000 games
    he shows all away against the spread winning 53.10% with a postive r.o.i. of 1.34%
    and all home against the spread winning just 46.90% with a negative r.o.i. of 10.28%

    that's a really huge difference - kinna astonishing that a bettor would likely win doing nothing other than betting all away against the spread - although the win would likely be a very small amount -

    if this continues to hold up it means that the home teams are way, way over bet - and that does seem to make sense - ploppies believing that the home advantage is greater than it actually is



    this is potentially valuable for a bettor who's not trying to crush the lines but wants to milk promos and bonuses from the various sports books - and there are now lots of them legal in many states
    The issue with milking promos is that this is generally better achieved by locking in a contrary position with another book.

    A suggestion: this type of play becomes a LOT more attractive if you can find another play that is anti-correlated with it. A 1.34% edge looks a lot more practical and interesting when you can reduce the risk around it in and the trend line of your bankroll is smooth and upward. I wonder if there is a similar offsetting bet to do with totals or something that would tend to win when a bet against the spread would lose.

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