Sports picks

[UncleChoo]

I have my own model, it took me 18 monthes full time job to build it, in early 90's.
There are twenty variables in my model, while Bill Benter created over two hundred and uses about 130 variables in his model.
I once helped MIT John Chang's team to build one, but the project was terminated after two months, before anything came out.
To build a model, that needs a programmer, a math expert, a route how to build it. And where to place your bets if the model is profitable.
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My goal, so many experts around here, then why not build one?

That an amazing accompishment. I never followed through with mine. I am going to Florida for about 10 days.
When I get back I am going to dig though my office and try and find the old rough draft outline of ideas I created
that I was going to try and build my model off of. I would llke to send it you and get your feedback.
If you would like email me [email protected].

[drunk]

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it's a brave new world out there with sports books since online sports betting has been widely legalized - intense competition has caused this

I hate to sound like a tout but true is true

FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat bet - lose your first bet and get up to another $2,500 to bet with - it's not cash it's just to bet with - you will only have cash if you win the bet

Caesar's has basically the same thing but just $1,250

these are sign up bonuses

edge to the player

then after that they offer all sorts of promos and bonuses of different kinds

I know a guy who is beating sports who knows nothing about sports or handicapping - he just milks these bonuses in various ways - he's a master at this - he does this with machine promos and bonuses too

he's very bold - willing to put up large $ to get the promos

CAUTION - the vast majority will still lose by betting much more bets when there is no bonus or edge

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[drunk]

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for those who want to make action bets to milk bonuses and promos - this might be useful
it's well known in horse racing that there is a favorite/longshot bias - and it also exists in other sports betting
in the long run the fave - who pays much less - will lose much less than the longshots
because getting paid big is attractive to many bettors while getting paid small is not
per betfirm.com's spread to money line conversion - linked - in Monday night's game the final line on DraftKings per covers.com was -8 spread and -340 money line favoring the Nuggets
if you do the math you will see that based on a team at -8 winning 78.4% of the time there was a small edge to the Nuggets on the money line at -340 per betfirm.com - see link
the Wizard of Odds came up with almost the same figure - 77.8% wins at a spread of -8 - still an edge but slightly smaller - in his Betting the NBA blog
this will happen fairly often in all sports - but always a conversion chart such as the one linked should be consulted

it may not be an attractive bet - but so what - if it gets you your promos and bonuses - and maybe a tiny amount of profit $$$ if you do it enough times

in racing, the longer the shot - the worse the long term r.o.i. - very likely the same in sports - the worse the payout, the larger the hypothetical edge - i.e. greater edge on -450 then -340 - but still pretty small

in racing there is a gigantic takeout that will crush maybe 98% of the players no matter what they do - not so in sports betting - substantial - but nowhere remotely close to racing

if I was doing this - I would only bet on home teams - since I believe an upset is much more likely if the dog is at home


https://www.betfirm.com/nba-point-sp...version-chart/


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[drunk]

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further commentary re the above post

so, the first half of the NBA season is over and you notice the Grizzlies are absolutely crushing at home
they're one of those teams that are fabulous at home and crummy away - ending up 35-6 at home and 16-25 away
you want to bet on them at home but you don't like picking ATS - you think it's too hard
you decide to bet on them the last 20 home games of the season on the money line

you end up 17-3 with a 20% r.o.i.

nice job

this is unusual and not representative - but
this is doing almost no handicapping at all

I believe if a player does just a little handicapping on these extreme faves in the NBA and college too he can realize an edge that's not miniscule on the money line - and that it's much, much harder to realize an edge ATS

these things imo are critical:

the fave is at home and has a great record at home
the fave is not playing in a game back to back (they played in a game yesterday)
the fave has no star players or significant players who have injuries and won't be playing
the team the fave is playing is not a division rival
the team's opponent is not a strong team and has a poor record on the road

obviously there has to be a cut off point where the payout on a win is so small that it's just too unattractive
that is pretty much a subjective thing
for me, the smallest payout I would accept would be when the spread is 8 points and the payout per DraftKings on the money line is -340 in the several games I saw, just under $30 for a $100 bet


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[Archvaldor]

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for those who want to make action bets to milk bonuses and promos - this might be useful
it's well known in horse racing that there is a favorite/longshot bias - and it also exists in other sports betting
in the long run the fave - who pays much less - will lose much less than the longshots
because getting paid big is attractive to many bettors while getting paid small is not
per betfirm.com's spread to money line conversion - linked - in Monday night's game the final line on DraftKings per covers.com was -8 spread and -340 money line favoring the Nuggets
if you do the math you will see that based on a team at -8 winning 78.4% of the time there was a small edge to the Nuggets on the money line at -340 per betfirm.com - see link
the Wizard of Odds came up with almost the same figure - 77.8% wins at a spread of -8 - still an edge but slightly smaller - in his Betting the NBA blog
this will happen fairly often in all sports - but always a conversion chart such as the one linked should be consulted

it may not be an attractive bet - but so what - if it gets you your promos and bonuses - and maybe a tiny amount of profit $$$ if you do it enough times

in racing, the longer the shot - the worse the long term r.o.i. - very likely the same in sports - the worse the payout, the larger the hypothetical edge - i.e. greater edge on -450 then -340 - but still pretty small

in racing there is a gigantic takeout that will crush maybe 98% of the players no matter what they do - not so in sports betting - substantial - but nowhere remotely close to racing

if I was doing this - I would only bet on home teams - since I believe an upset is much more likely if the dog is at home


https://www.betfirm.com/nba-point-sp...version-chart/


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Problem with F/L bias is that while it can definitely exist in retrospect there is no guarantee it persists going forward, and if you aren't doing the fundamental analysis you won't notice till it is too late.

When sources as mainstream as you describe are talking about it there is a good chance it won't exist any more.

With bonuses you can just hedge with another book-that's a certain profit.

[drunk]

Problem with F/L bias is that while it can definitely exist in retrospect there is no guarantee it persists going forward, and if you aren't doing the fundamental analysis you won't notice till it is too late.

When sources as mainstream as you describe are talking about it there is a good chance it won't exist any more.

With bonuses you can just hedge with another book-that's a certain profit.

I basically agree that the bias is too small or nonexistent to be useful without handicapping in sports betting

but believe combined with handicapping it can get into the profitable zone - much more easily on the money line than ATS

anybody can make money hedging with bonuses to get a certain profit

for me - there's no challenge or pride in doing that - it does get the $ if that's all the bettor cares about - but the great challenge is to beat the odds -

in racing - the bias - it's definitely still there - there are numbers crunchers out there who track it every single year - it's always been there and I could tell you exactly what it was for last year - but I doubt anybody would be interested

unfortunately, the takeout in racing is too gigantic for it to be really useful

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[drunk]

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Yanks - 120 over Mariners -

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[Archvaldor]

I basically agree that the bias is too small or nonexistent to be useful without handicapping in sports betting

but believe combined with handicapping it can get into the profitable zone - much more easily on the money line than ATS

anybody can make money hedging with bonuses to get a certain profit

for me - there's no challenge or pride in doing that - it does get the $ if that's all the bettor cares about - but the great challenge is to beat the odds -

in racing - the bias - it's definitely still there - there are numbers crunchers out there who track it every single year - it's always been there and I could tell you exactly what it was for last year - but I doubt anybody would be interested

unfortunately, the takeout in racing is too gigantic for it to be really useful

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Good response. Sounds like you know what you are doing.

The main reason I responded was that some years ago a quite significant F/L basis was detected in the UK soccer betting markets. It just vanished overnight despite the fact there can't have been that many people who knew about it.Just be careful that doesn't happen to you.

[drunk]

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my first public play for '23 MLB tanked - 0-1_______(1)

6/23 - run line - Rays -1.5 - 125 over Royals

the potential profit on the run line is more than twice that of the money line - famous last words_________????

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[drunk]

1-1 (.2)

6/24 - Rays - team total over 5.5 -105

[drunk]

1-2 (1.2)

6-25 -gonna try and get close to even by plunging with one of these weird bets the online books now offer - they up the juice but not all that much and it's easier to find a good bet imho

Marcus Stroman on the mound - excellent for the Cubs - early game - 10 a.m.

Cardinals Lars Nootbaar - no home run - -900_______ 10 times -

in his last 5 games he's had 3 hits in 15 at bats - only one extra base hit and no hits in the last 3 games

[drunk]

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2-2 (0.1)__________________risked 10 units yesterday

going to try and see how long I can go without a loss on this BS no home run prop by the predatory books - picking weak hitters vs. strong pitchers

6/26 - Twins Alex Kirilloff - no home run - - 1200__________risking 5 units

Kirilloff - only hits were 2 singles in last 12 at bats - no extra base hits in last 5 games




DraftKings is offering Zack McKinstry at +1100 to hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
they don't offer the other side - that he won't hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
a fair price would be about +2200
how pathetic do you have to be to take a bet like that____?
they're really some sharks - there's blood in the water

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[drunk]

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3-2 + .32

6-27 - despite the high scoring at Coors Field the Rockies are still way down on the list of homers per game even at home

tonight they go up against excellence - the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw

I'll take Jorge Alfaro - no home run -- 800__________risk 5 units

how horrible the other side of that bet paying only 4.5/1 for a guy that in the last 3.5 years has hit only 15 homers in 213 games - famous last words_______????

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