Sports picks

[Bricklayer]

Show Time is awesome...

[UncleChoo]

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great archived article from Barry Meadow re a horseplayer who has made millions - rebates are part of it


Barry Meadow is probably the most respected author and handicapper out there


of course, anybody seeing a story like this would suspect it's bogus - but if it comes from Barry - no way - it's not bogus


in 2002 this guy, Tim Haley, pushed $24 million in bets thru - and he quotes an R.O.I. of just 0.95% against the takeout - that's not counting rebates


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Horse Racing System 2 (horseracinggold.com)


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Meadow has some good books. My personal favorite handicapping book is Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohammer. The book really changed the way I looked at pace and speed.
I've come to the conclusion horse betting is best left as an entertainment pastime (a fun way to spend a summer Saturday afternoon) rather than a serious try and gamble with an edge business decision. If you think about it there are just way too many unknown variables. Just my opinion, no doubt there are some pros out there, however, I am not one of them.

[Bricklayer]

Thx Drunk. I have no clue how to horse bet. But it sounds like some fun and quality entertainment possibly.

My only thing is… If it was Stu’s downfall. I don’t want it to be mine. Lol. Free play all day…Bombs away upon cash out to keep wolves at bay?… is fun.

Any tips are appreciated on how to win at horses…

Bricklayer

[DSchles]

Sounds logical enough. That's why they'll probably score 69 points!

Don

[21forme]

Please explain your logic of going back so many ytears for historical reference. College teams change about 25% of their players each year. Not criticizing, but just trying to understand.

[Bricklayer]

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I believe that there is an excellent chance that a bet on the NFL regular season away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer will be profitable by a solid margin for the 4th year in a row

this year for the first time I will include any away picks in my tracking - the tracking of the prior 3 years was posted elsewhere

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the 3 years combined_____________114-77________59.68 % winners__________13.93% R.O.I.

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pushes not considered

Vn win rate. My friend hit 63.5% this past month on his newest way of burning books. Lol. Run on ? Lol. I think it’s possible he was just getting positive variance.?! How many samples till all you booksters consider a current edge, a real edge. Minus computers. Lol.

He thinks he might be the best out there considering Jeopardy James says “54% win is good enough.” And “know when to press.”

Something about basketball press? Lol.


Sports is harder than…well, that’s too DangeRuss.

[DSchles]

I felt exactly the same way about yesterday's Texas game. WRONG 7-point favorite! The linesmakers keep disrespecting TCU, and they keep showing why they're 10-0 and #4. This is yet another example.

Don

[Old new guy]

How reliable are sports picks? I see plenty of people here who invest to make predictions, but what are the chances of winning?

60% of the time, they’re right every time

[vegaskid]

so far in football - he has made 154 picks this year - is that enough to assume he has an edge in picking football_____________?_____________I dunno - If I was forced to make a bet on the answer I would bet Yes - he has an edge - but not nearly as great as his NFL picks indicate for this year

I've never heard of anyone with a long-term win percentage north of 60% or so. So yes, I would assume his 69% clip this year in the NFL is mostly positive variance. Do you have data showing he's achieved anything like this in past years?

[Archvaldor]

no, I looked - and this is the first year he has picked the NFL or NCAAF on his site - that fact tends to indicate his results are mostly luck - but I dunno

he's a very sharp guy - his real name is Todd Witteles - I'm not quick to doubt his talents - although as I mentioned he hasn't been profitable in picking other sports -

I think that's one of the fascinating things about sports betting - so different from BJ where you know some things for sure - sports betting - you almost never know anything for sure

this is a wiki blurb about him:





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Witteles



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There were many dedicated mathematically competent operations which tried to sell picks over the last few decades. All of them failed eventually so far as I know. I'm not talking about scam operations-these were advantage players who beat blackjack and other gambling figures for six or seven figures. Someone always comes along and picks winners for a few years and gets drooled over by the inexperienced then heavily vilified when regression to the mean kicks in.

Do prop bets, arbitrage, shop for the best lines - in short mathematically verifiable plays which work obviously and historically. That's where the edge is.

I'd like to see comprehensive proof to the contrary but I very much doubt it exists. You hear credible stories about winning handicappers sometimes but even then you don't have access to their actual betting data so they are never anything more than stories.

[21forme]

Not surprising. And it's easier for the sports books to limit players as all the data is easily at their fingertips and it's all algorithm-based.

[21forme]

imo it's definitely unfair

That's the casino industry way. Accept no winners.

[UncleChoo]

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hope you guys caught some winners

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Nope, I followed your pick on Tampa - Dallas game and now I have to get a hold of a moving company haha