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Thread: Sports picks

  1. #27
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    Anyone have an edge on the super bowl?

  2. #28


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    Where is the link on the website?

    Don

  3. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    statistician Mike Shackleford, who is a very sharp guy, posted this on his website
    you can compare the fair value to what is offered by your book
    he got the lines from William Hill on January 29
    he notes that he hasn't updated his stats in several years
    if I was doing this, which I'm not, (props are not my thing), I wouldn't worry about that too much
    GLTA


    edit: I just noticed the screen shot didn't come out great - the column in the far right is fair value
    the fair value corresponds to "Yes" - which is the first column on the lef


    Attachment 4457

    Thank you sir! It was nice to finally get back out to the blackjack tables again.

  4. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardsfan55 View Post
    Anyone have an edge on the super bowl?

    Sunday could be the largest single day handle in sportsbook history....why? covid, of course...isn't the answer to everything nowadays???

    seriously though anyone laying any serious dough is waiting till Sunday covid results are in so it will be interesting to see the line movement...which has, unusually, been nil

    as for an 'edge'....have to give that to KC, but Brady has been so 'dadgummit' (Phillip Rivers speak) lucky in SBs....he was gifted at least 2...interception in endzone vs hawks/'beast mode' and vs falcons (must be something w/ birds so chiefs may be safe)

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    to see the line movement...which has, unusually, been nil
    That's because 3 is the single-most difficult (and dangerous!) number from which to move a line. If they move it to 3.5 (there's some around), there's going to be a flood of TB money. Ditto for KC money at -2.5. I doubt that you'll see it move. So dangerous for the books to get sided.

    Don

  6. #32
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    Fanduel has a little promotion going on. Bet $5 to win $275 straight up ML on the super bowl for new users. Got my mom and wife on opposite sides of the game. It's not much, but it is guranteed profit. Sports betting is truly a tough one. I personally can't seem to find the edge long term. Will continue to study the game but Blackjack is my game of choice. Have fun this Sunday everyone!

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardsfan55 View Post
    Fanduel has a little promotion going on. Bet $5 to win $275 straight up ML on the super bowl for new users. Got my mom and wife on opposite sides of the game. It's not much, but it is guranteed profit. Sports betting is truly a tough one. I personally can't seem to find the edge long term. Will continue to study the game but Blackjack is my game of choice. Have fun this Sunday everyone!
    You do realize, of course, that you can never actually withdraw that money as cash.

    Don

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You do realize, of course, that you can never actually withdraw that money as cash.

    Don
    Full T&C say that it’s a “cash payout” with no withdrawal restrictions. So, this one seems to be allowed to be withdrawn as cash. But, there’s a little ambiguity in the use of the term “promotion bonus”. I have seen (and received) several “new user” bonuses on DK and BetMGM that have been allowed as cash withdrawals though.

  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You do realize, of course, that you can never actually withdraw that money as cash.

    Don
    Are you sure? I have made a bet similar to this as a new user and have been able to cash out with no problems.

    I'm fairly confident you can indeed cash out, but I also respect your expert opinion.

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardsfan55 View Post
    Are you sure? I have made a bet similar to this as a new user and have been able to cash out with no problems.

    I'm fairly confident you can indeed cash out, but I also respect your expert opinion.
    Read the fine print.

    Don

  11. #37


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    "But with this incredible offer, bettors can earn $275 in free bets, which means there’s no reason to not sign up and lock in your Super Bowl 55 bets now."

    So, still good, but now worth half what you thought it was. It ISN'T cash.

    Don

  12. #38
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    5. Claiming Promotion Offer In the event your Eligible Wager wins, you will receive a cash payout equal to +5500 odds on the first five dollar ($5) of that outright wager (“Promotion Bonus”). Any winning Eligible Wagers over five dollars ($5) will be paid out in cash at market odds, as if you had bet on one of the eligible teams to win their matchup in the common market, excluding the first five dollars ($5) of such Eligible Wager. Maximum Promotion Bonus of Two Hundred and Twenty Five Dollars ($225). Promotion Bonus recipients will be solely responsible for all federal, state, and local taxes, and for any other fees or costs associated with the Promotion Bonus received, regardless of whether the Promotion Bonus, in whole or in part, is used. The Promotion Bonus value may be reported for tax purposes as required by law.
    11. Restrictions on Withdrawal N/A

    I even contacted support on the matter. There is no rollover requirement. Maybe it's a state by state issue? But in my state it's all cash.

    Doesn't say anything about FREE bets on my computer

  13. #39
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    Although i fully respect you and all the work you do! Even though they said it is withdrawable if you win, wouldn't be shocked if you end up being right. Much respect for you sir!

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