Sports picks

[Frankie]

For both entertainment value and to get a glimpse into the character of Fezzik (and many other touts), all the following documentaries are great:
Life on the Line
The Best of It
(both available on Amazon Prime, maybe elsewhere)
Action (a Showtime documentary series)

Obviously you'll form your own opinions, but the only one who doesn't seem full of crap is Dink (and I'm not just saying that because he passed away. It's clear he knows what he's doing, without any self-promotion or fanfare. Relevance unclear, but my cousin lived at Dink's house for over a month). Ahh...and there's an old-timer (Lem?) who sounds like he had an edge in his prime.

[Archvaldor]

I don't NEED to do anything.

You need to establish whether you are accusing Fezzik of criminal fraud. If you are doing that, then you need to back it up, because it is slanderous.

If you meant it simply as hyperbole then I suggest you choose your words more carefully in future.

[Archvaldor]

.

pretty interesting - to me anyway

legendary sports bettor Steve Fezzik believe an edge can be had on bets that pay way, way less than even money -

To return to your actual point, this is true. It is simply a mathematical fact. If the payout exceeds the true odds then you have a good bet.

This may or may not be the case with the bet he mentions.

[drunk]

To return to your actual point, this is true. It is simply a mathematical fact. If the payout exceeds the true odds then you have a good bet.

This may or may not be the case with the bet he mentions.

yes

it's my belief that many times (but not every time) a bet is shaded by the books so that the player betting for the big payout gets a bad deal and the player willing to bet to win a small payout gets a much better deal

an example - and I'm not making this pick - just pointing it out

today - the horrible Rockies are at home against the Giants - the Rockies are 12-55 and 6- 27 at home - the Giants are 40-28 and 18-17 away

and the Giants have a much tougher starting pitcher

the Rockies are priced at +172 and the Giants are priced at -205

the Rockies have lost 4.5 times as many games at home as they have won

again, it's not my pick - the game has already started - it's just an example - but a bet on the Rockies looks like a terrible deal and a bet on the Giants looks like a good deal - to me anyway



interestingly, it's still early, but the Rockies are on pace to have the worst record ever in the MLB's modern era (since 1900)

the White Sox broke the Mets record last year going 41-121 with a .253 winning %

the Rockies win % so far this year is a truly dismal .179

.

[Archvaldor]

yes

it's my belief that many times (but not every time) a bet is shaded by the books so that the player betting for the big payout gets a bad deal and the player willing to bet to win a small payout gets a much better deal

an example - and I'm not making this pick - just pointing it out

.

You have a very good instinctive feel for these things. That's very impressive. I have to look these things up in data samples.

What you are referring to is the "favourite-longshot bias" and there are a mountain of scientific papers on it. The theory being that if you have very short odds gamblers don't want to bet on it and consequently the bookie have to offer close to true odds to balance their book. It is borne out in practice.

This is actually way more useful to someone like me who doesn't usually handicap sports. For someone like you who has an idea your sweet spot is somewhere in the middle of the odds range: there is more vigorish there, but because you can potentially identify when the bookies mess up you may be able to obtain a bigger edge.

[DSchles]

Check the Kalshi money lines. They are ALWAYS better than the sports books' lines--always in the middle.

Don

[peterlee]

A team from Hong Kong:

Horse-race tipster targeted over 300 million yen tax scam

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-yen-tax-scam/

[peterlee]

At least two Blackjack Hall of Fame members use similar models to bet on horse racing.
Zeljko Ranogajec's team uses computers and printers to bet on tickets at the track.

[peterlee]

An old case of Zeljko Ranogajec's team:
One of the most significant cases involved an estimated tax bill of around A$900 million, encompassing income tax, penalties, and interest.

[drunk]

.
Billy Walters is considered by many to be the greatest sports bettor of all time - some highlights from wiki and then the link:


"In the 1980s, Walters joined the Computer Group, which used computer analysis to analyze sports outcomes. Over a period of 39 years, Walters had only one losing year, with a 30-year winning streak. Though he has finished with a loss for a few months, he was always in profit by the end of the year. Walters bet on basketball, the NFL, and college football. Walters won $3.5 million on Super Bowl XLIV after betting on the New Orleans Saints.^[9] Due to his reputation, Walters often placed bets through "runners" so bookmakers would remain unaware of the person behind the bet.^[10] Walters has admitted that he "only" wins about 57% of his bets, contrary to many sports betting "touts" who sell their picks by claiming much higher win percentages, and that he has been able to amass a fortune by betting on a huge number of games where he has a relatively small edge. ^[11]In January 2007, Walters won a $2.2 million bet on University of Southern California defeating University of Michigan; USC won, 32–18. In 2011, Walters claimed he could make between $50 and $60 million on a good year.^[1]
In 2023, Walters, along with Billy Baxter, "Roxy" Roxborough, and "Lefty" Rosenthal, was inducted into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame at the Circa Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.^[12] His plaque reads: "Billy Walters is known for being the greatest sports bettor of all time. He commands respect from every prominent bookmaker in the world and is known for contributing as a philanthropist [sic] to many causes."


Walters reputation, however is not pristine. He was convicted of insider trading. He was sentenced to 5 years in prison but was then released to home confinement. His sentence was later commuted.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Walters_(gambler)

[DSchles]

and is known for contributing as a philanthropist [sic] to many causes."

What's wrong with "philanthropist"?

Have you not read his autobiography? https://www.amazon.com/s?k=billy+wal...f=nb_sb_noss_2

Don

[drunk]

What's wrong with "philanthropist"?

Have you not read his autobiography? https://www.amazon.com/s?k=billy+wal...f=nb_sb_noss_2

Don

no, I haven't read it - what I know of him I only know from Wiki and from a different message board and reading some other stuff here and there

the quote was from wiki -

not sure what you're getting at - I see [sic] next to "philanthropist" but I'm not sure why it's wrong - hoping you can explain

.

[DSchles]

not sure what you're getting at - I see [sic] next to "philanthropist" but I'm not sure why it's wrong - hoping you can explain

I can't because it isn't wrong. I was asking why there was a "sic" there. Where did you see it? I went to the wiki article, but don't see that.

Don