Mentality switch

[Sundown]

Having difficulties escaping the mindset of protecting wins, or making excuses for not throwing out max bet especially during one of those sessions where you are pushing on blackjacks, and 20s, and dealer is not busting.

I feel like when you been playing from behind all day, and then get back to even, or maybe ahead that it is now time to go. Maybe it is, or maybe it isn't, but just getting out of there with my shirt on is always at the forefront of my mind. I feel like I don't want to make a bad situation worse or lose what I have gained and then have to spend all that time grinding back.

Any advice that you utilize to get out of this mentality? Do you just play for a set number of hours and the results are the results??

Sincerely

[VonDox]

I have similar concerns... I recently played at a casino ( out of my normal territory ) and was playing a $25.00 table max bet $1k 6-deck 1-1/2+ cut and I lost just over $2.5k in 3 hours of play. Most of it was head to head play with 30% with just another guy at the table. By the end I was feeling shell shocked and just called it a day. If I feel I am not playing at 100% then I stop playing regardless of the session length I set for myself at the start. Nothing went in my favor, nothing.. I had a +6 TC and had 2 spots of $225.00 out and pulled a 19 and 18 with the dealer showing a 6. Dealer gets a 5 card 21.. 6-2-4-4-5. For me I have set session lengths I set and I played two 2-hour sessions. I went back the next day and got back $500. I love to play BJ.. so it's not a grind.. My issue is when I have big losses like this one I start second guessing myself and wonder what I am doing wrong. What really helps is I set-up the same rules/bankroll on CVBJ and run some simulated games to see if I am making mistakes or losing the counts and I found I am playing at either 98% to perfect each time. If I test out below 98% then I stop playing and hit CVBJ for a few weeks really hard to make sure my game is at it's peak. From reading a LOT of books on Black Jack.. even top pro's like Ian Anderson, Snyder, Wong all had bad swings of losses... it just happens... If anyone is winning ALL the time and never has any major variance issues then they should write a book a make millions on how they did it.

[Sundown]

Much respect VonDox. Them +6 true counts and dealers not busting really hurts. I'm wondering if we should even approach the game with "let's get our money back and recoup" or forget about it and follow the process....the math so to speak.

[DSchles]

Any advice that you utilize to get out of this mentality? Do you just play for a set number of hours and the results are the results??

Yes.

Don

[DSchles]

It's just a shame that so many beginners have this terrible mentality that, when they win, everything is wonderful and they're playing great, but when they lose, something must be wrong and they're no longer at the top of their game. If you can't play properly regardless of the results then you really shouldn't be playing at all. And once you are playing properly, THE RESULTS DON'T MATTER!! Why is this so hard for everyone to understand?

Don

[Freightman]

First, to better understand the issue. This is when record keeping is a good idea. Minimum Columns to include are session length, $ session win, $ percentage loss. Filter the data to determine average $ win and average $ loss.

What you’re describing is an average $ win which is far less than the inverse of your average $ loss. Now, if you're a typical card counter, you will win an average of 60% of sessions played. Multiply $win by % win - measure against average $loss by % lost - hopefully there is a plus sign at the end of the day. Regardless if $ won or lost, start fooling around with the numbers. What happens if you can reduce dollars lost per losing session to begin with and the reduce that $lost to the actual inverse of dollars won. What happens if you can increase %sessions won. What is the impact to overall profitability. Clearly, the impact is significant.

Now for your actual question (pretend you’re Vondox) - $2500 loss is within parameters at a min $25 table - but so is $2500 win. Last month, I had 3 losses (lot for me) totallng about 2k or 2.1k. One of them was specifically to let the casino book a win. Also had 3 2k wins and 1 or 2 $400-$500 wins. This month, no losses yet on 4 sessions totalling about 4.3k on 4 sessions with local tight spreads. Maybe 10 hours played.

In my view, optimal spreads are highly predictable card counter giveaways. They are knock it out of the park strategies. Experience and seasoning will disclose to you other strategies which would appear to make you look amateurish but in reality ncrease your EV. Illleabe it there.

[Freightman]

Yes.

Don

@Sundown. Here’s another way of looking at it. You’re in the hole after 2 hours and you want to get your money back. There’s no difference to results between grinding back another 2 hours at store in question, or playing across town at same stakes and similar conditions. .

The 9n lay caveat I would say regarding Dons correct response - are those other stores available - no need to make it back same night.

[Sundown]

I have a suspicion that the lure of counting cards gives one a unique advantage, and thus one should always be winning. We know this not to be true, yet we/I am here. Personally, as someone who previously played the game all wrong (prior to counting) I can noticably see the difference in performance as I am not losing as much and I'm more disciplined. This leads me to continue to dig and explore card counting and it's foundations.

Is Baccarat exploitable at all do you know?

I am going to respectfully disagree with you, and trust me, I hate to do so as I know you are one of the Godfather's in this field and I appreciate very much what you do.

THE RESULTS DO MATTER. I'm not playing out of curiosity or to win debates surrounding computer simulations. I'm playing to make money and as much as possible! Proper play is paramount, and I'm striving to continuously improve. To objectively cut out the noise of covariances, correlation coefficients, and TVM (Time value of money) ok kidding here as I was a former finance major, but mentality is important although not so much quantifiable.

I'm going to assume that when you say "Once you are playing properly" that the results (Money) will come. Essentially focus on proper play and money will follow??

Yes I can be trading options on line and losing no big deal, but down $100 in Blackjack and boy I'm aggravated.

Respectfully submitted

[Sundown]

Freightman so true thanks! Boy I like how you write.

[DSchles]

When I wrote that the results don't matter, I'm trying to get you, and just about anyone else who thinks like you, to understand that playing hundreds, or even thousands of hours, is virtually useless in trying to determine an accurate EV and variance for the game you're playing. If it were, why would all the computer simulations, done by our finest researchers, be for billions of hands? Why not stop after, say, what a year's play is for you? The answer is that the results of a year's play DON'T MATTER.

When you're on a terrific winning streak and all is going great, do you often stop to check your play and evaluate if you're making any mistakes? No? Why not? You do it when you're losing! Is it that you're stupider when you're losing? Or that you've forgotten how to play? 49 years at this, and I've never once remotely considered checking to see if I was playing wrong, whether up or down large amounts. It simply never made sense to me to do that.

Most beginners obsess over the results. And while it may be understandable from an emotional point of view, it's a virtual waste of time from a mathematical perspective.

Don

[21forme]

Keep repeating to yourself, "It's just one loooong session."

It's often good to leave when you're losing to "book" a loss.

Many years ago, I was playing at Caesars AC and was experiencing the miracle shoe - I won close to every hand, with a good portion of them at max bet. Won 30K in that one shoe. My wife happened to be watching and said, "Shouldn't we leave now?" I responded, "Do the casinos close when they're ahead?"

I did decide to leave because I didn't want to attract any more attention than I was already getting. A crowd had formed around the table. When I got up, there was a fight for my lucky chair.

[Sundown]

" A fight for your chair" wild ploppies. ????
Do you still use KO? If so I have a few questions for you 21forme.

[8675309]

I had a shoe from hell 2 nights ago. I was heads up in a very deep cut and lost every hand except two of them. I was near max bet by the time the first deck was dealt and there were many splits and doubles along the way. I lost just over $6000 in that shoe and the dealer just couldn't understand why I kept shoving big bets out. I couldn't tell her because the count was astronomical. Anyway, as much as it sucked, like I told my wife I could have just as easily won $6000 on it if it would have went my way. I hate to leave a joint losing but sometimes you just have to do it. I've went back the next 2 nights after and had decent wins but not near as much as the shoe from hell lost. If you're gong to be a counter this is just something you have to accept.