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Thread: Sports picks

  1. #1


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    Sports picks

    Hey,
    So I said I would make picks....Gonna have to wait some weeks till I scout. Can’t wait really. Haha. Made picks early last season and paid. Even though I made the most in a season last year.

    Brick

    Drunk are you still in with me? Sharky? Any other decent pickers out there?
    Last edited by Bricklayer; 09-13-2020 at 08:41 AM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bricklayer View Post
    Hey,
    So I said I would make picks....Gonna have to wait some weeks till I scout. Can’t wait really. Haha. Made picks early last season and paid. Even though I made the most in a season last year.

    Brick

    Drunk are you still in with me? Sharky? Any other decent pickers out there?


    this was my last post on NFL picks in 2019 -


    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post



    As you can see from the link, statistician Mike Shackleford, who runs the Wizard of Odds website, tracked about 2,100 NFL games involving road dogs and found them to win 53.75% with a 2.57% R.O.I.

    I speculated that the road dogs might win a higher % if only games where they got more than 3 points were considered

    I tracked this for the entire 2019 NFL regular season - I am not including pushes - there weren't many - I think just 2



    Results for road dogs who got more than 3 points:



    61-41.........................59.80% winners......................14.17%........ R.O.I


    anyone who wants to double check my stats or work on prior seasons can do so at covers.com - they have data going back many years
    I plan to scope this out next season too




    because of this I plan to make it easy on myself this year -
    I'm picking all road dogs who got more than 3 points
    it's too late right now for the 1:00 games today, but there are a couple of later games where this strategy can be applied
    I'm not going to post all the picks - it's up to whoever wants to do this to scope it out - it's easy enough to do
    for reference: I'm using the best line on vegasinsider.com the morning of the day of the games



    at the end of the season I will post the results




    Good Luck to All





    https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/







    love those dogs






    tbLwsQpnObxDoRK-zP_O5-vAgnYemyDmGFSqyUVe5s0.png

    Last edited by drunk; 09-13-2020 at 10:36 AM.
    a man thinks that by mouthing hard words that he understands hard things........................Herman Melville

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    The LA Rams look to christen their new stadium, Sofi - aka the "Saucer" - which, anyone flying into LAX knows why - but the COWBOYS, under new headcoach McCarthy, will be more disruptive then the Cali wildfires....take the better roster, the BOYZ -2 for this week's play.

    Good luck,

    Sharky

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    Where does the NFL teams get their money to play football when there is "No in person attendance".

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    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Where does the NFL teams get their money to play football when there is "No in person attendance".


    they still get revenue from the networks who they license to broadcast their product - and this is a gigantic amount
    the NFL is very well managed - at least re their finances - and they can afford to take a hit - at least for one season

    the franchise owners are the ones who will take the biggest hit
    many of them are billionaires and they can afford it too

    who is going to cry for a billionaire whose net worth drops from $10 billion to $9.9 billion?
    not me
    Last edited by drunk; 09-13-2020 at 02:26 PM.
    a man thinks that by mouthing hard words that he understands hard things........................Herman Melville

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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    they still get revenue from commercial advertising which is a gigantic amount
    the NFL is very well managed - at least re their finances - and they can afford to take a hit - at least for one season

    the franchise owners are the ones who will take the biggest hit
    many of them are billionaires and they can afford it too

    who is going to cry for a billionaire whose net worth drops from $10 billion to $9.9 billion?
    not me
    Oh, I almost forgot the billionaires got richer during the pandemic and the poors got poorer. FYI: most NFL owners doesn't have 10 billion dollars in net worth according to my research. Jerry Jones have a net worth of 8.4 billion and the richest NFL owner, David Tepper, who owns the Carolina Panther have a net worth of 12 billion.
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 09-13-2020 at 02:30 PM.

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    Omg...evedyone floating my play...Dallas +1

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    Do you think that there will be people in attendance for this year's Superbowl? My experience at the SuperBowl was it's hard to get out even with private jets because there are a lot of rich people there.

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    It's going to be in a state (FL) with a stupid and reckless governor, so yes.

  10. #10
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    .................

    parlays are not my thing, but they are for many
    half point parlay cards, very popular in LV (still, as far as I know) offer a way to potentially get a mathematical edge

    with a half point parlay card all lines are moved to the half point if they're not already on it so that there can be no pushes
    so, if a line at 6 is moved to 5.5 the best bet would be on the fave - if it is moved to 6.5 the best bet is on the dog (doing no handicapping - considering only the line itself)

    the link and the pic show the potential edge according to statistician Mike Shackleford who runs a website
    he emphasizes that these calculations are estimations- that the edge quoted is not set in stone

    interesting stuff (to me anyway) even if you don't normally bet parlays
    the image is blurry and hard to read, but is easily readable at the link


    down further at the link it is shown that the edge is much stronger if it moves the line off of a 3 or a 7
    but, I think, not quite as strong as shown, because I think this was calculated before extra point attempts were moved back causing more misses




    5lyEgn7.png






    https://wizardofodds.com/games/sport...ng/nfl-parlay/







    *
    Last edited by drunk; Today at 04:29 AM.
    a man thinks that by mouthing hard words that he understands hard things........................Herman Melville

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