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Thread: Opinions on counter basic strategy opposed to index plays

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    Opinions on counter basic strategy opposed to index plays

    Hi all, I was reading up what I could find on counter basic strategy. I believe it was Arnold Snyder who came up with this concept from what I read. He and others including KJ seem to agree that the cost of using no indices at all and using this modified basic strategy is very minimal. Also this minimal cost should be offset in longevity by not varying plays which are obvious tip offs that someone is a counter. I was just wondering what everybody thought about this. In my eyes if one is playing without indices then hilo is surely the count to use with its high betting efficiency and simplicity. I also assume that with this strategy that you would want to avoid negative counts even more and insurance is another issue...surely we should not just blindly insure in counts that dont justify it. If I remember right their sims claim very little loss in EV. thanks

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    The great thing nowadays (probably the only thing remaining..) is in having tools like CVData, CVCX, CVBJ; where you can come up, and practice, with an infinite variety of 'simplified' playing strategies for your count strategy of choice, with and/or without any cover plays and simplified 'grouped' indices and then just sim different sets of them. Look at those sets of performance results for the game/rules/conditions of interest, and then judge for yourself what 'EV loss' from whatever "Complete_________" perfect playing strategy is acceptable to you for your particular set of playing circumstances.

    You need to buy this software suite and use it. From your post it seems you are in the perfect position to get the maximum benefit from it.

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    I actually have the software. I just like to get others opinions whenever possible. thanks

  4. #4
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aragorn View Post
    The great thing nowadays (probably the only thing remaining..) is in having tools like CVData, CVCX, CVBJ; where you can come up, and practice, with an infinite variety of 'simplified' playing strategies for your count strategy of choice, with and/or without any cover plays and simplified 'grouped' indices and then just sim different sets of them. Look at those sets of performance results for the game/rules/conditions of interest, and then judge for yourself what 'EV loss' from whatever "Complete_________" perfect playing strategy is acceptable to you for your particular set of playing circumstances.

    You need to buy this software suite and use it. From your post it seems you are in the perfect position to get the maximum benefit from it.
    +1
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 8675309 View Post
    I actually have the software. I just like to get others opinions whenever possible. thanks
    ))).

    I doubt. Please post the results of your simulations.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  6. #6


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    So basically you are calling me a liar... nice
    If you really must know then just ask Norman if I have it or not. Damn, really!

  7. #7


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    Counter's basic strategy is a good idea only in narrow situations. This is primarily for gorilla big players, where you have a guy who is willing to come on a couple trips and throw down the money and burn his identity out at a bunch of casinos, but he's not willing to put in a lot of work learning the game, memorizing indexes, learning to count, etc. So, they just teach them a modified basic strategy on the assumption that they'll always be in positive counts.

    It's not for someone making a serious effort to count and make money on their own. Even as a very part time player playing red chips, taking a few hours to learn the Illustrious 18 is worth it.
    The Cash Cow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moo321 View Post
    Counter's basic strategy is a good idea only in narrow situations. This is primarily for gorilla big players, where you have a guy who is willing to come on a couple trips and throw down the money and burn his identity out at a bunch of casinos, but he's not willing to put in a lot of work learning the game, memorizing indexes, learning to count, etc. So, they just teach them a modified basic strategy on the assumption that they'll always be in positive counts.

    It's not for someone making a serious effort to count and make money on their own. Even as a very part time player playing red chips, taking a few hours to learn the Illustrious 18 is worth it.
    Im not the greatest with the software but it looked to be huge difference with the counter basic strategy and pretty much any of the counts. I thought I may have been doing something wrong with the sim but maybe not. Thanks for the reply.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by 8675309 View Post
    Hi all, I was reading up what I could find on counter basic strategy. I believe it was Arnold Snyder who came up with this concept from what I read. He and others including KJ seem to agree that the cost of using no indices at all and using this modified basic strategy is very minimal. Also this minimal cost should be offset in longevity by not varying plays which are obvious tip offs that someone is a counter. I was just wondering what everybody thought about this. In my eyes if one is playing without indices then hilo is surely the count to use with its high betting efficiency and simplicity. I also assume that with this strategy that you would want to avoid negative counts even more and insurance is another issue...surely we should not just blindly insure in counts that dont justify it. If I remember right their sims claim very little loss in EV. thanks
    I understand that you are referring to playing a "modified basic strategy" (MBS) but varying your bets based on a card counting system.
    Obviously, they cannot be flat bets since, in that case, it would be better to use the classic basic strategy. It is also necessary to consider
    a significant spread to compensate for the lack of indices. That said, what you can do is:

    1) Choose a counting system that you feel comfortable with and that has a BC/BE greater than or equal to 0.96.

    2) Select a spread.

    3) Prepare the MBS based on point 2) by modifying it one play at a time. With each modification, calculate the corresponding SCORE.

    For example, you could always choose to stand on 16 against a dealer's 10. Surely, the SCORE with this play will be better than if you always hit.
    Then, you can continue trying plays whose index is greater than or equal to zero. If a play improves your SCORE, incorporate it into your new strategy.

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    I understand that you are referring to playing a "modified basic strategy" (MBS) but varying your bets based on a card counting system.
    Obviously, they cannot be flat bets since, in that case, it would be better to use the classic basic strategy. It is also necessary to consider
    a significant spread to compensate for the lack of indices. That said, what you can do is:

    1) Choose a counting system that you feel comfortable with and that has a BC/BE greater than or equal to 0.96.

    2) Select a spread.

    3) Prepare the MBS based on point 2) by modifying it one play at a time. With each modification, calculate the corresponding SCORE.

    For example, you could always choose to stand on 16 against a dealer's 10. Surely, the SCORE with this play will be better than if you always hit.
    Then, you can continue trying plays whose index is greater than or equal to zero. If a play improves your SCORE, incorporate it into your new strategy.

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Yes it helps...thanks
    I am trying to learn to use the software better as I am not very good with anything other than just viewing the included canned sims and tweaking the betting and such.
    I had just seen that Snyder had recommended using that CBS modified basic strategy as a sort of cover because he stated that playing hands differently at different counts was a dead giveaway as a counter.
    In my mind I was just questioning whether it was worth the cost of not using indices in order to fly under the radar a little more but if playing all then I am thinking even the plays that have zero as an index would have a great cost if always playing them like I was in a positive count. Unfortunately I am not yet able to use software well enough to answer these questions but I will learn to. Thanks again

  11. #11
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Arnold often played with rebates. When doing so, the rebates give you the EV and betting is far more important than playing strategy. Not getting to play again was paramount.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  12. #12


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    . He and others including KJ seem to agree that the cost of using no indices at all and using this modified basic strategy is very minimal.
    If KJ said that then he’s an idiot. He may be a lot of things, but I don’t think he’s an idiot.

  13. #13


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    KewlJ
    KewlJ
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    Will you just stop dude.

    The fact is that card counting is made up of two parts Betting correlation (bet spread with count or advantage) and playing efficiency (strategy change plays or index plays).

    Back in the day of single deck blackjack, these two parts were close to 50/50 in importance and value in terms of money won. In the days of 6 and 8 deck shoe games, which most people play, it no longer is. With these shoe games, and worsening rules like s17 which added almost .2% to the house edge, it is like 80/20 what contributes to the actual advantage a player can get, the 80 being betting correlation. The strategy change or index play are just way less important and contribute less to overall advantage.

    Mow of that 20% from index play, 80% of that comes from the top 18 plays. 65% from only the top 3 plays. So going above 18 or 20 really adds little. you can see how each of these plays diminishes in value after 18 or 20.

    AND on top of that, the most known index plays are a tell, when casino personél see a player playing a hand one way one time and another at a different time. They don't even have to know what the correct play is, just seeing it played different is the tell.

    So a player giving up the index plays after 18 or playing card counter basic strategy (where play doesn't fluctuate) or giving up all strategy change plays and just playing basic strategy, isn't giving up that much. A minority or the minority. And in return he is avoiding some of the bigger "tells" of a card counter.

    Now you or anyone else that decides they want to squeeze every penny out of index plays.....go for it. Just know that it is not adding all that much. You can cherry pick and post data compounding and all that. In The real world of play, it doesn't add that much.

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