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Thread: Any tips to really nail down deck estimation?

  1. #1


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    Any tips to really nail down deck estimation?

    I've been practicing using CVBJ for a couple hundred hours now, and one of the spots I just keep messing up is betting while the discard tray is in between decks (around 20 or 30 cards). Its frustrating that I continue to mess up after so much practice, and I'm really looking for a way to nail it down. I have 6 decks of numbered cards that I use in real life with a discard tray, but I'm wondering if that is the most effective way? Anything helps.

  2. #2


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    Different cards have different thicknesses. Further, their “compression” ratio changes as cards age. Chips from different casinos also have different thicknesses. Take 3 decks of cards, and use as many chips as necessary to measure 1,2 and 3 decks.

    Think you get the point.

  3. #3


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    Go to local casino gift shop. They will have old cards with hole in them. Get 8 decks.

    You can then practice taking the cut card or a joker and just keep practicing. After 8-20 hours of practice you get good Judging deck estimation.

    This is a good skill. For counting most likely you be true counting by full deck. So get good at half decks accuracy.

    Then learn to cut 1/4 decks. Deck estimation is great because it can help you in different ways.

    That’s down the road for you. Just get 1 deck and 1/2 deck accuracy.
    Last edited by beating vegas; 08-26-2020 at 04:12 PM.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Different cards have different thicknesses. Further, their “compression” ratio changes as cards age. Chips from different casinos also have different thicknesses. Take 3 decks of cards, and use as many chips as necessary to measure 1,2 and 3 decks.

    Think you get the point.
    The humidity will also effect the cards.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by beating vegas View Post
    The humidity will also effect the cards.
    Indeed.
    Post 3 (yours) is better than Post 2 (mine)

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by pakdevil158 View Post
    I've been practicing using CVBJ for a couple hundred hours now, and one of the spots I just keep messing up is betting while the discard tray is in between decks (around 20 or 30 cards). Its frustrating that I continue to mess up after so much practice, and I'm really looking for a way to nail it down. I have 6 decks of numbered cards that I use in real life with a discard tray, but I'm wondering if that is the most effective way? Anything helps.
    Switch to KO and learn TCRC (Table of Critical Running Counts).

    A true counts of 4 occurs when KO = 4*n where n = # of decks is exact and is independent of decks played or decks remaining.

    For true counts near the pivot of a true count of 4, the KO is very insensitive to errors in estimating decks played.

    For example, at tc = 5, KO is only one true count point away from its pivot of a true count of 4 whereas HL is 5 true count points away from it's pivot of a true count of zero. So with the KO and tc = 5, estimating to the nearest deck is equivalent to the HL estimating to the neatest (1/5)th of a deck.

    I am attaching a 4 page PDF that shows that TCRC for six and eight decks. Also note the pattern in the table so constructing the table mentally is very easy.

    Just know the TCRC and forget about true count calculations (just mentally look up the true count in the TCRC from the KO running count and decks played) and your estimating of true counts for true counts of 3, 4, 5, and 6 which are most important for betting and playing strategy variations, will be very accurate.

    For the KO with tc > 3, estimating to the nearest deck is more than adequate.

    Besides the 4 page TCRC I am also attaching an exhibit that shows the TC accuracy of HL vs KO.

    Finally the HL and KO indices are very close and you can use the HL indices for the KO count with very little error.
    KO and TCRC.pdf
    KO TC accuracy.pdf
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 08-26-2020 at 06:36 PM.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Indeed.
    Post 3 (yours) is better than Post 2 (mine)
    Thank you for the compliment but I didn’t come up with this Technique.

    To The OP stay with high low if your going to expand your skill set down the road.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    Switch to KO and learn TCRC (Table of Critical Running Counts).

    A true counts of 4 occurs when KO = 4*n where n = # of decks is exact and is independent of decks played or decks remaining.

    For true counts near the pivot of a true count of 4, the KO is very insensitive to errors in estimating decks played.

    For example, at tc = 5, KO is only one true count point away from its pivot of a true count of 4 whereas HL is 5 true count points away from it's pivot of a true count of zero. So with the KO and tc = 5, estimating to the nearest deck is equivalent to the HL estimating to the neatest (1/5)th of a deck.

    I am attaching a 4 page PDF that shows that TCRC for six and eight decks. Also note the pattern in the table so constructing the table mentally is very easy.

    Just know the TCRC and forget about true count calculations (just mentally look up the true count in the TCRC from the KO running count and decks played) and your estimating of true counts for true counts of 3, 4, 5, and 6 which are most important for betting and playing strategy variations, will be very accurate.

    For the KO with tc > 3, estimating to the nearest deck is more than adequate.

    Besides the 4 page TCRC I am also attaching an exhibit that shows the TC accuracy of HL vs KO.

    Finally the HL and KO indices are very close and you can use the HL indices for the KO count with very little error.
    KO and TCRC.pdf
    KO TC accuracy.pdf
    What was the OP question ?

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by beating vegas View Post
    Thank you for the compliment but I didn’t come up with this Technique.

    To The OP stay with high low if your going to expand your skill set down the road.
    For the two deck game you are correct. I would not use the KO for the two deck game because the two deck game is play all and the true counts go all over the place and outside the TCRC. I would use a balanced count like the HL for the two deck game.

    But for the shoe game, the KO is great as you are mostly back counting and want true count accuracy at true counts of 3, 4, 5 and 6 where your large bets are made and which the KO excels at.

    Consider for example a tc = 4 and you have a large bet out. With KO you will never miss a large bet. For n = 6 decks, when KO = 24 then tc = 4 and place your large bet. No estimation of decks remaining, no true count calculations, no worries about thickness of cards and no worries about humidity affecting the thickness of the cards and no worries about anything else.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 08-26-2020 at 06:38 PM.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    For the two deck game you are correct. I would not use the KO for the two deck game because the two deck game is play all and the true counts go all over the place and outside the TCRC. I would use a balanced count like the HL for the two deck game.

    But for the shoe game, the KO is great as you are mostly back counting and want true count accuracy at true counts of 3, 4, 5 and 6 where the KO excels at.

    Consider for example a tc = 4 and you have a large bet out. With KO you will never miss a large bet. For n = 6 decks, when KO = 24 then tc = 4 and place your large bet. No estimation of decks remaining, no true count calculations, no worries about thickness of cards and no worries about humidity affecting the thickness of the cards and no worries about anything else.
    I don’t recall it being said a 2 deck game.
    If you use high low in a six deck game the last deck remaining is 1/2 deck true counted.
    Last edited by beating vegas; 08-26-2020 at 06:44 PM.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by beating vegas View Post
    I don’t recall it being said a 2 deck game.
    If you use high low in a six deck game the last deck remaining is 1/2 deck true counted.
    I believe this question on deck estimation was referring to the shoe game also.

    I just mentioned the two deck game to stress that KO is good for the shoe game, not the two deck game.

    And here is another advantage of KO for deep penetrated shoes. KO = 24 is a true count of four anywhere in the shoe, even with less than one deck remaining. With less than one deck remaining, the estimate of decks remaining if very critical. Again, with the KO no need for accurate estimation of decks remaining here either. If KO = 24 place large bet anywhere in the shoe. With HL you need to pay very close to estimation of decks remaining and off by just a little when less than one deck remaking make a big difference. With the KO you do not have that problem.

    You have two problems that can happen with the HL if you do not estimate decks correctly.

    1. You calculate tc(HL) = 4 when in actuality because of your error in estimating decks remaining, tc(HL) < 4 and so you place your large bet out when you do not have the large advantage you thought you had so using the HL you are over betting. You do not have this problem with the KO. KO = 24 you always have a true count of 4 and you can place your large bet with confidence.

    2. You calculate tc(HL) < 4 when in actuality because of your error in estimating decks remaining, tc(HL) = 4 and so you yo place a small bet out. This is a case of lost betting opportunity using the HL. You do not have this problem with the KO. KO = 24 you always have a true count of 4 and you can place your large bet with confidence.

    So placing your large bet you when KO = 24 for n = 6 decks, you will never bet over betting and you will never miss a betting opportunity.

    So for the shoe game, switch to the KO and learn the TCRC and stop worrying about estimating decks played or decks remaining. Just estimated decks played to the nearest deck is good enough for tc = 3, 4, 5 or 6 which are the most important true counts to be accurate with anyhow for both betting and playing strategy changes.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 08-27-2020 at 02:05 AM.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    I believe this question on deck estimation was referring to the shoe game also.

    I just mentioned the two deck game to stress that KO is good for the shoe game, not the two deck game.

    And here is another advantage of KO for deep penetrated shoes. KO = 24 is a true count of four anywhere in the shoe, even with less than one deck remaining. With less than one deck remaining, the estimate of decks remaining if very critical. Again, with the KO no need for accurate estimation of decks remaining here either. If KO = 24 place large bet anywhere in the shoe. With HL you need to pay very close to estimation of decks remaining and off by just a little when less than one deck remaking make a big difference. With the KO you do not have that problem.

    You have two problems that can happen with the HL if you do not estimate decks correctly.

    1. You calculate tc(HL) = 4 when in actuality because of your error in estimating decks remaining, tc(HL) < 4 and so you place your large bet out when you do not have the large advantage you thought you had so using the HL you are over betting. You do not have this problem with the KO. KO = 24 you always have a true count of 4 and you can place your large bet with confidence.

    2. You calculate tc(HL) < 4 when in actuality because of your error in estimating decks remaining, tc(HL) = 4 and so you yo place a small bet out. This is a case of lost betting opportunity using the HL. You do not have this problem with the KO. KO = 24 you always have a true count of 4 and you can place your large bet with confidence.

    So placing your large bet you when KO = 24 for n = 6 decks, you will never bet over betting and you will never miss a betting opportunity.

    So for the shoe game, switch to the KO and learn the TCRC and stop worrying about estimating decks played or decks remaining. Just estimated decks played to the nearest deck is good enough for tc = 3, 4, 5 or 6 which are the most important true counts to be accurate with anyhow for both betting and playing strategy changes.
    If all your going to be is a counter KO or UBZ11 is fine. If you plan on putting more powerful tools in the tool box balanced counts are better. True counting whole decks is easy.

    It all depends on what you play for. Counting is one skill above basic strategy.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by beating vegas View Post
    If all your going to be is a counter KO or UBZ11 is fine. If you plan on putting more powerful tools in the tool box balanced counts are better. True counting whole decks is easy.

    It all depends on what you play for. Counting is one skill above basic strategy.
    If you are not doing a true count conversion with the KO then of course balanced counts are better.

    But re-read some of my previous attachments where I listed the TCRC. Using the TCRC you have very precise true counts at 3, 4, 5 and 6 and at 4 your true count is exact.

    As I said, if tc = 5 for example, then KO true count estimated to the nearest deck is as accurate as the HL estimated to the nearest (1/5)th of a deck! At tc = 3 or 6 using TCRC the KO estimated to the nearest deck is equivalent to the HL estimated to the nearest (1/3)rd of a deck.

    At a true count of 4 the KO is exact and the HL player would need to estimate the decks remaining to the exact number of cards left in the shoe to match the KO accuracy at a true count of 4.

    Estimating with the KO to the nearest deck is better than the HL player estimating to the nearest quarter deck for true counts of 3, 4, 5 and 6.

    Also you can use the HL indices for the KO count. Nothing new to learn.

    And to top it off, KO is slightly more powerful for playing strategy changes than HL if you use the TCRC.

    For the S17, DAS, LS game both the HL and KO have a BCC of 96.5%. But for S17, DAS, no LS, KO has a BBC of 97.4% and HL as a BCC of still 96.5%.

    So for the back counted shoe game, use KO as the KO is a superior count to the HL for the shoe game.

    If you are playing the 2 deck game, then use a balanced count.

    By the way, what is UBZ11?
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 08-27-2020 at 04:58 PM.

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