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Thread: Deck Penetration EV in CVCX

  1. #1


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    Deck Penetration EV in CVCX

    https://www.blackjackclassroom.com/b...or-penetration

    Here is an article breaking down what determines the quality of a game. Regardless of how many decks you're playing, the deeper the penetration, the more profitable the game will be.
    In a 6 Deck game, it says the deck penetration of;

    4/6 decks is "poor penetration" - 66.67%
    4.5/6 is "average penetration" - 75%
    5/6 is "good penetration" - 83.33%

    I also want to quote that it says "if you have terrible rules on a game, you better have good dealer penetration if you want to make money. If you have great rules you can be a little more forgiving when it comes to the shuffle point."

    With all that being said. When selecting deck penetration in CVCX. With the rules selected as;

    6 Deck
    4 Players
    1-12 Spread
    S17 ONLY.: [NO: DAS, SR, RSA] - these rules aren't the focus.

    In CVCX, The widget results at the bottom. One displays the RESULTS in terms of %W/L. - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet. With the rules selected stated earlier above. Here are the %W/L data computed by deck penetration in CVCX;

    3.5/6 decks - %W/L: 0.312%
    4/6 decks - %W/L: 0.446%
    4.5/6 deck - %W/L: 0.608%
    5/6 decks - %W/L: 0.850%
    5.5/6 decks - %W/L: 1.151%

    The deeper the deck penetration the better/higher the EV %W/L. With knowing all of this. A 3.5/6 deck penetration, CVCX calculations computes a positive EV %W/L of 0.312%. Even if we know that anything that is ?4/6 decks penetration is poor.

    So my question is, knowing that anything that is
    ?4/6 decks penetration is consider poor. And that a 3.5/6 deck penetration still computes a positive EV % W/L. Even though it maybe not optimal to play 3.5/6 decks in terms of maximizing profit.

    As long as CVCX displays a positive EV %W/L. Does this mean that this game with the conditions and rules selected. That in conclusion ;

    1) Is it a playable and profitable game?

    2) Is there a minimum EV %W/L number that you must have in order for you to even consider playing?

    3) What is consider a really good # for EV %W/L?

  2. #2


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    It isn't the win % that matters; it's the SCORE. Many consider 50 a threshold. Frankly, I consider that to be pretty good these days.

    Don

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    It isn't the win % that matters; it's the SCORE. Many consider 50 a threshold. Frankly, I consider that to be pretty good these days.

    Don
    What makes a game worth your time and effort? Also is it playable and profitable? There are a lot of factors to consider that contributes to this question.


    Consider and factor the balance between risk and reward. At what SCORE is the bare minimum you would advise to never going below but at the same time would still play. Given that its worth your time and effort, and offers a content ratio of risk and reward?


    I know its not that simple and basic to just base it off SCORE. But if you can, please try to.

  4. #4


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    The very minimum SCORE I would accept is 25. That means your SD is 20x your EV for a specific game.
    I should add... This is a kind of SCORE you will accept only when "forced" on a play all game due to particular casino conditions.
    G Man

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    The very minimum SCORE I would accept is 25. That means your SD is 20x your EV for a specific game.
    I should add... This is a kind of SCORE you will accept only when "forced" on a play all game due to particular casino conditions.
    For a 6D, 4 players, S17, 4.5/6 pen, no back counting, play all hands including negative counts, play 1 hand only,
    Spread 1-25: SCORE = 18.18
    Spread 1-50: SCORE = 23.11

    But if you change just 1 rule, to 5/6 deck penetration and keep everything else the same.
    Spread 1-15: The SCORE then achieves 25.01

    or adding an additional rule, DAS. 4.5/6 Deck
    Spread: 1-20. The SCORE is 25.00

    I'm trying to create a scenario where the gaming conditions are absolute minimal and crappy. Combined with the least amount of player effort such as no back counting, playing only 1 hand, and playing through the entire shoe even if the count goes bad. This situation is definitely not what you wish and hope for. A "forced" on play like G Man said.

    My point and what I'm understanding, a SCORE of 25 was barely achieved under those rules I've stated. And it goes to show you what "acceptable" but still "forced" the game's condition looks like at its bare minimum SCORE. And in-order to improve it, you have to find more beneficial rules such as DAS, RSA, SR, or better deck pen.

    SCORE could be increased by; if you back count , play 2 hands, or don't play negative counts. But maybe you simply just don't want to or it's not your playing style. But that doesn't matter, that is not the point.

    Does the minimal SCORE of 25 still apply if you don't back count, play entire shoe, and play only 1 hand? A better way to ask is, what is the minimum SCORE for a person who doesn't back count, plays entire shoe, and only plays 1 hand? With it being worthy for you to play and is profitable obviously.
    Last edited by Ultramood; 09-12-2020 at 08:50 AM.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultramood View Post
    For a 6D, 4 players, S17, 4.5/6 pen, no back counting, play all hands including negative counts, play 1 hand only,
    Spread 1-25: SCORE = 18.18
    Spread 1-50: SCORE = 23.11

    But if you change just 1 rule, to 5/6 deck penetration and keep everything else the same.
    Spread 1-15: The SCORE then achieves 25.01

    or adding an additional rule, DAS. 4.5/6 Deck
    Spread: 1-20. The SCORE is 25.00

    I'm trying to create a scenario where the gaming conditions are absolute minimal and crappy. Combined with the least amount of player effort such as no back counting, playing only 1 hand, and playing through the entire shoe even if the count goes bad. This situation is definitely not what you wish and hope for. A "forced" on play like G Man said.

    My point and what I'm understanding, a SCORE of 25 was barely achieved under those rules I've stated. And it goes to show you what "acceptable" but still "forced" the game's condition looks like at its bare minimum SCORE. And in-order to improve it, you have to find more beneficial rules such as DAS, RSA, SR, or better deck pen.

    SCORE could be increased by; if you back count , play 2 hands, or don't play negative counts. But maybe you simply just don't want to or it's not your playing style. But that doesn't matter, that is not the point.

    Does the minimal SCORE of 25 still apply if you don't back count, play entire shoe, and play only 1 hand? A better way to ask is, what is the minimum SCORE for a person who doesn't back count, plays entire shoe, and only plays 1 hand? With it being worthy for you to play and is profitable obviously.
    First, my apologies for referring to you as Snarky. Clearly you’re not as your style is far too intelligent and polished. I find your questions interesting.

    Don made the comment that a SCORE of 50, which was once considered as minimal to play, should now be considered a good game by today’s shitty offerings. I concur.

    Another important consideration that should be added to your criteria is strength of bankroll. The shoestring roll needs to be far more diligent regarding overall conditions. The variance of crappy games will murder that individual. A stronger bankroll of a player with the proper skills should be able to overcome these game considerations.

    Poor conditions equates to no tipping, no camo, bigger spreads and no mercy. Many equate their bankroll in terms of units. Others in terms of max or super max bets, others both. Regardless, it needs to be considered.
    Last edited by Freightman; 09-12-2020 at 10:07 AM. Reason: Correct Dons most hated grammar error

  7. #7


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    It's not the rules that have greatest effect on SCORE. It's the penetration.

    You are doing lots of sims for lots of different scenarios. What makes more sense to me is look at the games you have access to, then sim those. If you have local games, that's where you should start. If you are making a trip, look at the games, go back to your hotel room, and run them on your laptop.

    What you'll find, as you gain experience, is you can tell how good a game is, and how you should attack it, just by looking at it. Running hundreds of sims with all combinations of rules, game speed (another very important factor), number of players and penetration seems confusing and pointless.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    It's not the rules that have greatest effect on SCORE. It's the penetration.

    You are doing lots of sims for lots of different scenarios. What makes more sense to me is look at the games you have access to, then sim those. If you have local games, that's where you should start. If you are making a trip, look at the games, go back to your hotel room, and run them on your laptop.

    What you'll find, as you gain experience, is you can tell how good a game is, and how you should attack it, just by looking at it. Running hundreds of sims with all combinations of rules, game speed (another very important factor), number of players and penetration seems confusing and pointless.
    For a start, your local games. You should know house edge off the top. You know which dealers give good pen, which don’t. You should know right off the top of your head, minimal spread required to beat 4/6, 4.5/6, 5.0/6, 5.5/6. Then, with your knowledge of the house, be able to determine spread you can get away with.

    Change your spreads shoe by shoe depending on cut.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    For a start, your local games. You should know house edge off the top. You know which dealers give good pen, which don’t. You should know right off the top of your head, minimal spread required to beat 4/6, 4.5/6, 5.0/6, 5.5/6. Then, with your knowledge of the house, be able to determine spread you can get away with.

    Change your spreads shoe by shoe depending on cut.
    You really think you should change your spread depending on the cut? Does/Would it make that much of a difference?
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultramood View Post
    For a 6D, 4 players, S17, 4.5/6 pen, no back counting, play all hands including negative counts, play 1 hand only,
    Spread 1-25: SCORE = 18.18
    Spread 1-50: SCORE = 23.11

    But if you change just 1 rule, to 5/6 deck penetration and keep everything else the same.
    Spread 1-15: The SCORE then achieves 25.01

    or adding an additional rule, DAS. 4.5/6 Deck
    Spread: 1-20. The SCORE is 25.00

    I'm trying to create a scenario where the gaming conditions are absolute minimal and crappy. Combined with the least amount of player effort such as no back counting, playing only 1 hand, and playing through the entire shoe even if the count goes bad. This situation is definitely not what you wish and hope for. A "forced" on play like G Man said.

    My point and what I'm understanding, a SCORE of 25 was barely achieved under those rules I've stated. And it goes to show you what "acceptable" but still "forced" the game's condition looks like at its bare minimum SCORE. And in-order to improve it, you have to find more beneficial rules such as DAS, RSA, SR, or better deck pen.

    SCORE could be increased by; if you back count , play 2 hands, or don't play negative counts. But maybe you simply just don't want to or it's not your playing style. But that doesn't matter, that is not the point.

    Does the minimal SCORE of 25 still apply if you don't back count, play entire shoe, and play only 1 hand? A better way to ask is, what is the minimum SCORE for a person who doesn't back count, plays entire shoe, and only plays 1 hand? With it being worthy for you to play and is profitable obviously.
    For a very quick and efficient comparison of effect of rules and pen, see BJA3, pp. 232-233.

    Don

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