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Thread: Opinion of Blackjack Apprenticeship?

  1. #27
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    Gman, I agree with your overall assessment. Still, I feel that all the books in the blackjack library, most of which I have read, can only provide you the theoretical tools. After learning all that is presented and putting it into play, the practical side still needs analysis by an expert. So, even though one may be book smart, in practice s/he may still be an intermediate player. There are those who can translate the theoretical information successfully into practice and there are those who still need coaching to fine tune their abilities. I feel that I am in that second category. I should have been tested out a long time ago by an accomplished AP. That's how the bootcamp benefits many players.

    On the other hand Gman and 21forme you've got me wondering how many players complete the bootcamp and still are unsuccessful?
    Last edited by Halbruno; 08-18-2020 at 08:50 AM.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Halbruno View Post
    Gman, I agree with your overall assessment. Still, I feel that all the books in the blackjack library, most of which I have read, can only provide you the theoretical tools. After learning all that is presented and putting it into play, the practical side still needs analysis by an expert. So, even though one may be book smart, in practice s/he may still be an intermediate player. There are those who can translate the theoretical information successfully into practice and there are those who still need coaching to fine tune their abilities. I feel that I am in that second category. I should have been tested out a long time ago by an accomplished AP. That's how the bootcamp benefits many players.

    On the other hand Gman and 2forme you've got me wondering how many players complete the bootcamp and still are unsuccessful?
    The ‘reader” also plays while he’s learning, which is how he seasons. Further, I think most players deep down gave a good feel for the strength of their game.

    Excellent record keeping, and the ability to analyze that data will give you the information to plug your leaks and improve your game. In fact, excellent record keeping told me the weaknesses in my game, .and in fact led me onto the path of the regaled FBM ASC Basic to begin with and ultimately to the FBM ASC Advanced.

    Colins debutantes will have a well rounded education for the most part. Their demise will come from bankroll deficiency.

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by Halbruno View Post
    the practical side still needs analysis by an expert.
    You think that can be attained from a weekend seminar?

    Quote Originally Posted by Halbruno View Post
    On the other hand Gman and 21forme you've got me wondering how many players complete the bootcamp and still are unsuccessful?
    I really have no idea, but given the BJA graduates I've run into in the casinos and chatted with, I'd guess 10% last more than 3 years.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    but given the BJA graduates I've run into in the casinos and chatted with, I'd guess 10% last more than 3 years.
    In post 26, last sentence, I made reference to a Colin disciple. His career nearly ended on a last bet of bankroll scenario, with a super max Hail Mary below index split, which worked out for him - a gamble. A loss would have meant a bankroll rebuild. He’s built a decent bankroll. I think he knows that I would give him shit if it were to happen again.

    Insufficient funding is a career killer.

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    I read through half of the book last December but had to take a break for professional and health reasons. But I must say that I'm tired of all these euphemistic, unrealistic hero storys about guys who were succesful despite of a shoestring bankroll. This not only holds for Colin's, but for several other books, too. The essence always is "I was just lucky and did not survive by my system but of pure luck."

    After all, why should I believe such stories whilst running CVCX sims saying that ruin is almost certain with just 500 or 2000 dollar starting bankrolls, especially with nowadays increased table mins? Hardly they ever mention that, or 6:5, let alone CSMs. Even the really good books like Professional Blackjack assume S17 and good rules, or even Early Surrender at four deck shoes in AC back in 1978, as Ken Uston reported. Not very useful nowadays, so I would expect something more helpful from a 2019 book than pure euphorism. But I want to finish the book first before finally judging it.
    it's possible he's lying or embellishing but in advantage gambling (as well as many other things in life) there is a huge survivorship bias.if 100 equally skilled card counters start out massively underolled most will burn out but a few will run well at the start, build up a real bankroll and find success.i've seen it in poker a bunch.the 95 percent who burn out aren't around to tell their stories.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    Hsiaodi,

    Well, Ed Thorp never made much money playing BJ (even by the standards of his playing days), but that doesn't mean he didn't have something to teach BJ players back in the 60's with "Beat the Dealer".

    Dog Hand
    sure but back then what ed thorpe was teaching was absolutely groundbreaking. and the book cost a dollar or two. collin is charging thousands- is what he's teaching that groundbreaking? is it even possible to discover something groundbreaking about blackjack card counting in 2020?

  7. #33


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    HI Guys,

    My two cents from having read Colin's book and my observations on it.

    On one hand, Yes a $600K career win is not super impressive given the amount of time i agree, but at least he is likely being honest.

    In terms of his inspirational stories of guys starting with a small bank roll and making it, look he states explicitly that some people will hit a positive variance and just take off before having big drawdowns, it doesn't happen much, but it does happen. I don't think he misrepresents that and he does tell a story of a student who decided to play at a higher risk and was ruined.

    Also to his credit, he goes into depth on bankroll management and sizing. He tells a story of teaming up with an older AP who insisted on (if I remember correctly) no more than a 1% ROR when he and his other partner originally wanted to do 5%. They had some major downswings at one point and this decision is what kept them in business.


    The one thing I would point out that really stood out to me, and i'd be interested to hear others opinion on this, is that Colin is of the EV maximizing camp to the extreme. In his book at least, he recommends and has the philosophy of always making the correct mathematical play, even splitting 10's and doing flagrant AP moves if your consistently winning.

    I found myself questioning this perspective it came up as it flies in the face of every other AP source in history except the MIT team (endless supply of replacements).

    Honestly, I'm a bit paranoid, but i couldn't help but think he is actually trying to both sell a book and simultaneously sabotage potential AP's. He does make his money selling courses, and I wouldn't be surprised if those events he runs are utilized to put together his own team that he probably manages to this day on the low. While he might want to make money on his book and website, why create more competition for yourself? The reality is, the game is far harder than it used to be and if there are too many great AP's and especially sophisticated teams, if the casinos really want to go on a witch hunt, i wouldn't doubt there ability to identify anyone due to technology.

    To counter my own argument here, he is basically of the philosophy that any AP, that is successful is going to be barred eventually especially if trying to do this professionally. You simply need to play far to much to make it as a career.

  8. #34


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    To me, advising to split Tens is a contradiction to saying you can and must play over years in order to make it as a counter.

  9. #35


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    There's two approach to serious Blackjack.

    1- Some wants to play this game for the math challenge, the cat and mouse game and wants to make it a "life long" money maker.
    2-Some others do not care at all about "the game of Blackjack", they want to make money as fast as they can. Getting barred and unable to play after a few years has no impact. Once this is over they can sell bootcamps or vacuum cleaners or do whatever gets the money. What they valued the most isn't "how" they make money, but "how much"money they make.

    I'm of the first type.
    Nothing bad being of the second type.
    G Man

  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    There's two approach to serious Blackjack.

    1- Some wants to play this game for the math challenge, the cat and mouse game and wants to make it a "life long" money maker.
    2-Some others do not care at all about "the game of Blackjack", they want to make money as fast as they can. Getting barred and unable to play after a few years has no impact. Once this is over they can sell bootcamps or vacuum cleaners or do whatever gets the money. What they valued the most isn't "how" they make money, but "how much"money they make.

    I'm of the first type.
    Nothing bad being of the second type.
    Agreed.

  11. #37


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BJC View Post
    HI Guys,

    My two cents from having read Colin's book and my observations on it.

    On one hand, Yes a $600K career win is not super impressive given the amount of time i agree, but at least he is likely being honest.

    In terms of his inspirational stories of guys starting with a small bank roll and making it, look he states explicitly that some people will hit a positive variance and just take off before having big drawdowns, it doesn't happen much, but it does happen. I don't think he misrepresents that and he does tell a story of a student who decided to play at a higher risk and was ruined.

    Also to his credit, he goes into depth on bankroll management and sizing. He tells a story of teaming up with an older AP who insisted on (if I remember correctly) no more than a 1% ROR when he and his other partner originally wanted to do 5%. They had some major downswings at one point and this decision is what kept them in business.


    The one thing I would point out that really stood out to me, and i'd be interested to hear others opinion on this, is that Colin is of the EV maximizing camp to the extreme. In his book at least, he recommends and has the philosophy of always making the correct mathematical play, even splitting 10's and doing flagrant AP moves if your consistently winning.

    I found myself questioning this perspective it came up as it flies in the face of every other AP source in history except the MIT team (endless supply of replacements).

    Honestly, I'm a bit paranoid, but i couldn't help but think he is actually trying to both sell a book and simultaneously sabotage potential AP's. He does make his money selling courses, and I wouldn't be surprised if those events he runs are utilized to put together his own team that he probably manages to this day on the low. While he might want to make money on his book and website, why create more competition for yourself? The reality is, the game is far harder than it used to be and if there are too many great AP's and especially sophisticated teams, if the casinos really want to go on a witch hunt, i wouldn't doubt there ability to identify anyone due to technology.

    To counter my own argument here, he is basically of the philosophy that any AP, that is successful is going to be barred eventually especially if trying to do this professionally. You simply need to play far to much to make it as a career.
    If you look at his success stories, a far disproportionate amount relative to the overall number are micro-rolled players who luckboxed their way to fortune. If you don't think there is a clear marketing reason for loudly broadcasting this type of success story, then I would challenge you to think about something--casinos love telling stories about how a $5 bet on a progressive gave a six or seven figure win to some lucky player. Same thing with lotto winners. You don't generally hear about high rollers binking huge wins while playing huge. Part of this, you may say, is simply because high rollers don't want the exposure, but many of the low limit big winners also request anonymity. The reason is that this marketing stirs the imagination of Joe and Jane Blow. They might never have the bankroll to play two hands of $10.000 at blackjack and to thereby amass a huge straight blackjack win, but they can definitely afford $5 for the progressive. The idea is to give hope beyond hope--that guy made it without any more than I have, I can make it too! Ultimately, personal responsibility plays the final role in these stories, but I have never been one to view casino-style marketing as something overly considered with ethics, and in his documentary and videos, I believe Colin too has stated that he looks down at casino marketing as underhanded and unethical. Just something to consider.

    Colin himself doesn't have competition on the AP streets because he doesn't play much (at all?) anymore. I believe he does try to make effective card counters to the extent that they are willing to put out the money and make the plays they need to make when they have an edge.

    As for maximizing EV v. laying cover, the answer is: it depends. Some places won't bat an eye no matter what crazy plays you make, other place sweat ploppies splitting tens in huge negative counts just because they know counters *sometimes* make that play. Almost all places have betting thresholds and/or win thresholds where they begin to sweat. Staying under these thresholds is usually a good idea for longterm success, but if it's an out of the way spot that you're not likely to hit again (and you're reasonably sure they don't, for instance, contribute to databases), it may be optimal to just fire away and let them bar you. There's no "one size fits all" solution to these questions.

  12. #38
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    Team play still works; harder now with only 3 players at a table. It would not surprise me if Colin is still administering or running teams.........can't say from personal knowledge. He is too well known personally to play any longer. But other MIT folks still run teams for a percentage. I know that Mike Aponte does. He is also too well known to play individually. I don't think his personal coaching charges are that different from Colin's so there must be a market, guys! So the team aspect still works. It's just harder to get a trustworthy one together for any length of time to play.........LOL
    "Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by houyi View Post
    Colin himself doesn't have competition on the AP streets because he doesn't play much (at all?) anymore.
    I bumped into him in a casino last year. he was playing low stakes.

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