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Thread: CVCX Hole Carding Simulation - Negative Expectation?

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    CVCX Hole Carding Simulation - Negative Expectation?

    I have run a hole card simulation (rather than card counting simulation) using CVCX and the QFit Hole Carding strategy.
    Surprisingly, the results show a negative EV of about minus 8 percent (regardless of double deck or six decks), whereas I expected about 5 to 10 percent positive expectation (provided that every dealer's hole card is perfectly readable):

    HoleCardingQFitStrategy01AttachStrategy.jpg
    HoleCardingQFitStrategy02SimSetupPageOne.jpg
    HoleCardingQFitStrategy03SimSetupPageTwo.jpg
    HoleCardingQFitStrategy04SimResultsNegativeExpectation.jpg

    What went wrong here? (I know that the main purpose of CVCX is card counting simulation, and that flat-betting normally has a negative EV when using conventional Basic Strategy, but not minus 8 percent).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-15-2020 at 05:18 PM.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    CVCX does not support hole carding -- only CVData. You need to set a bunch of additional details to sim HC. I'll need to remove that from the list.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    CVCX does not support hole carding -- only CVData. You need to set a bunch of additional details to sim HC. I'll need to remove that from the list.
    Ah, I see. Probably it is possible to also set the frequency of correctly reading the hole card as a parameter. Many thanks for clarification!

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    You can set:

    HC seen percentage
    Win insurance percentage
    Error rate
    And when you can peek.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Playing optimally, you'd have about a 12-13% edge, rules dependent. Realistically, you'll be playing with about a 5-8% edge due to errors and by not making optimal plays that will completely out you. Constantly hit 19 vs 9 up or or surrender hard 18 and be "right" every time, you won't last long!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Playing optimally, you'd have about a 12-13% edge, rules dependent. Realistically, you'll be playing with about a 5-8% edge due to errors and by not making optimal plays that will completely out you. Constantly hit 19 vs 9 up or or surrender hard 18 and be "right" every time, you won't last long!
    Yes, but this is already incorporated into the QFit Hole Card strategy, which is accessible in CVCX and CVBJ. I would never hit on Hard 18 or Soft 19 or higher, because this would be very obvious and look unnatural. But it is possible to stand on more own stiff hands and to double down and split more frequently versus weak dealer hands. However, I would only surrender stiff hands like Hard 12 to 16, and double down only on Hard 8 to 11 and not on Hard 4 to 7, also because these plays are too unusual. Besides, it makes no sense to hit, for instance, your Hard 17 just because you know the dealer has Hard 18, because most likely you will not only raise suspicion but bust your hand anyway, so it would be a useless give-away for nothing.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-16-2020 at 02:33 PM.

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