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Thread: Effect of penetration on risk-CVCX

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    Effect of penetration on risk-CVCX

    Any idea of the general impact of an extra half deck of pen on an 8 deck game?

    Playing an 8-decker that, besides the 8 decks, is a great game. Currently trying to calculate risk on CVCX but penetration only allows 7.0/8 decks. This game has 7.5 deck pen. I noticed that, when starting at 5/8 decks pen, each half deck of additional pen takes off 3-5% of risk? Would this generally apply going from 7 to 7.5 decks as well?

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    Where is this game?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sjjr View Post
    Any idea of the general impact of an extra half deck of pen on an 8 deck game?

    Playing an 8-decker that, besides the 8 decks, is a great game. Currently trying to calculate risk on CVCX but penetration only allows 7.0/8 decks. This game has 7.5 deck pen. I noticed that, when starting at 5/8 decks pen, each half deck of additional pen takes off 3-5% of risk? Would this generally apply going from 7 to 7.5 decks as well?
    Not sure what you're trying to determine. When you say penetration reduces risk, the assumption is that you're betting the same amounts, with the same ramp, despite the increasing penetration. And while that's your right to do that, it's the wrong way to play. You should be betting optimally such that, as the penetration increases, your ramp and bet sizes change, keeping overall risk the same.

    The goal, as pen increases, is to make more money, not to decrease risk.

    Don

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    Screen Shot 2020-09-11 at 5.31.25 PM.jpg

    Thanks for the reply, Don. To be clear, when you're referring to betting optimally with penetration, you're referring to this sort of betting scheme where bet changes according to both true count and pen?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    7.5 out of 8 decks is extremely rare. You would need CVData for this.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    7.5 out of 8 decks is extremely rare. You would need CVData for this.
    FW in its early days. Problem was that it was rare to get that far in a shoe. Most of them went negative, leading to a wong-out. 8 decks is a real drag and pretty much a waste of time.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Well, I find 8 decks boring and indices are not of great value. OTOH, if you can actually find a 7.5/8 game, betting strategies are extremely valuable -- albeit you have to wait late in the shoe and get away with healthy bet increases.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    I've been able to spread $10-$125 with no issues at this shop. With such deep pen, should I be betting even more with high true counts and less than 1 deck remaining? Or is it that I should varying my bets like the CVCX bet report suggests? I've typically varied my bets based simply on the true count, regardless of pen. I understand the value of deeper pen, but just trying to understand exactly how my bets should reflect the higher advantage the deeper pen brings about.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Deeper penetration has higher advantage as there are more high true counts. So, that is taken into account in the CVCX betting reports. Now, there floating advantage that says that the advantage per TC does increase a bit with depth. This is not a large amount and I doubt very many people take this into account.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Now, there floating advantage that says that the advantage per TC does increase a bit with depth. This is not a large amount and I doubt very many people take this into account.
    I take it into account. I really don’t know how to measure for how much to add at what depth, however, I Will add 1/4 to 1/2% to true count. I start getting serious about it just A smidgen below 5/6, maxing out at 5.5/6.

    Now, utilizing the regaled FBM ASC Advanced with high TC and excellent QTC at a point where Floating Advantage comes into play, is a tremendously exciting opportunity. Add dual ramping with chip up style creates the beauty of the moon in the 7th hour with Jupiter aligning with Mars.

    Anyways Norm, you must have missed my request for my 2 biggest fans. I’m sure they are waiting for my thanks, and I wouldn’t want to keep them waiting,

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I take it into account. I really don’t know how to measure for how much to add at what depth, however, I Will add 1/4 to 1/2% to true count. I start getting serious about it just A smidgen below 5/6, maxing out at 5.5/6.
    BJA3, p.89, bottom two tables. You've had all the info in front of you for years. You never looked???

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    BJA3, p.89, bottom two tables. You've had all the info in front of you for years. You never looked???

    Don
    Shame on me if I missed it. I’ll review it when I get home. I’m reasonably sure that I’ve seen you in print somewhere saying the exact point of availability is blurred, but that it does not come into play until deep into the shoe. Further, that maximum effect was .5%. On that basis, nothing or almost nothing there at 4.5/6, probable half (or more) availability at 5/6, and max availability at 5.5/6.

    Now, this is really where halves shines, where hi lo says one thing and halves another.
    Your actual true is very moderate or negative, and that additional .5 is the difference between a $25 or $100 bet.
    You have a solid true 4 or 4.5, and that additional .5% is the difference between max and super max bet.
    Numerous other types of examples.

    Add into the equation FBM Advanced with dual ramp betting, high TC with good QTC, and you’re looking at the difference between a $250 and $600 bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    BJA3, p.89, bottom two tables. You've had all the info in front of you for years. You never looked???

    Don
    Didn’t look as closely as I should have. The tables essentially match my assumptions, across all true counts. Of particular interest are the large increases in per hand expectation in each true count bucket the deeper one goes into the shoe. The tables are based on a particular rule set. If you could articulate that for me, it would save me some time.

    In any event, once I have that rule set, I’ll give it a shot at extrapolating your numbers against the FBM ASC Both Basic and Advanced. Wow, guarantee the extrapolated numbers will be whoppers.

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