See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Results 1 to 5 of 5

Thread: CVCX - Change Risk of Ruin

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    CVCX - Change Risk of Ruin

    I have trouble to get into practical use of CVCX despite having read the manual. First, I want to analyze the CVCX features for the KO Preferred counting system before setting up a sim for my own counting system. So I chose

    Open an Archived Sim
    Included Simulations
    KO Preferred
    View

    and looked at the data in the "Bankroll/Risk" tab. The default Risk of Ruin was 13.5 percent (Kelly factor 1.0). Since this is way too high, I changed the RoR to 1 percent (Kelly factor 0.43). But the results in the bottom rows didn't change, and the RoR is 5.2 percent rather than the desired 1 percent.

    The "Bankroll/Risk" tab shows a help ballon saying s.th. about "This is an Advanced Option specified on the Options tab" (see attached screenshots). But I have no glue where to find this "Options tab" and to change the desired RoR in a way that it affects the results. Or is it necessary to rerun the whole simulation for KO Preferred for the new RoR of 1 percent?

    CVCXRiskOfRuin.jpg

    CVCXRiskOfRuinHelpBalloon.jpg
    Last edited by PinkChip; 06-28-2020 at 03:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    10,644
    Blog Entries
    59


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You are attempting to obtain a 1% RoR with an insufficient bankroll. It simply isn't possible with the game as defined.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thanks Norm for the quick reply!

    I had the Vancura/Fuchs book in mind, which on page 79 contains the rule of thumb "bankroll should be about 100 max bets" (in the previous example, I had entered bankroll = 5000, max bet = 50, min bet = 5, spread = 1:10, 6 decks into CVCX). And on page 107, there is a chart claiming that a bankroll of 1000 units reduces the RoR to about 1 percent. But later I realized that the chart is for Double Deck, not six decks.

    Today, I played around with CVCX using the same parameters as in the book page 107 as far as possible (Double Deck, S 17, 75 percent pen, DOA, no DAS, 1:5 spread). Unfortunately, the book does not say if RSA is allowed, and how many players at the table. However, I tried out different desired RoRs (see screenshots). If I understand the user scenario correctly, I have to enter the decks, rules, pen, bankroll and _desired_ RoR. The CVCX simulation then computes an optimal betting scheme to _approximate_ this RoR. But the resulting RoR can still be quite different from the desired RoR. Also, the proposed min (and max) bet can change, as long as I do not set "Manually Adjust Min Bet". (If I do set this option, the box for entering the desired RoR disappears).

    For example, if I set 5000 dollar bankroll and 1 to 5 spread, and then a desired ROR of 2 percent, CVCX suggests a bet ramp from 5 to 25 dollars, which leads to a very low 0.3 percent RoR, which is six times lower than originally desired:

    CVCX_DoubleDeck_RiskOfRuin_02_percent_Spread_05_to_25.jpg

    If I slightly increase the desired RoR from 2 to 3 percent, CVCX suddenly suggests a bet ramp from 10 to 50 dollars (doubling min and max bet and also win rate). But the RoR then climbs to 6 percent, which is twice as much as originally desired:

    CVCX_DoubleDeck_RiskOfRuin_03_percent_Spread_10_to_50.jpg

    Am I missing something and doing wrong? I just am not sure, but intend to play around some more with CVCX (testing how different decks, rules and bankroll affect the results).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 06-29-2020 at 02:34 PM.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    10,644
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You have set limitations on bankroll the bets as multiples of $5 and a RoR. That combination simply isn't possible. So, it does the best it can.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You are right, if I reduce the Min Chip Size to 1 or 2 dollars, the resulting RoR is nearly exactly equal to the desired RoR of 3 percent:

    CVCX_DoubleDeck_RiskOfRuin_03_percent_Spread_10_to_50_bet_resolution_2_dollars.jpg

    But as the software says, betting unusual amount might look suspicious :-)

Similar Threads

  1. Risk of Ruin
    By Three in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 10-03-2016, 07:54 AM
  2. Replies: 10
    Last Post: 12-23-2015, 09:51 AM
  3. Replies: 7
    Last Post: 04-20-2014, 07:41 AM
  4. CVCX Risk of Ruin Feature
    By MercySakesAlive in forum Software
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 10-02-2013, 12:26 PM
  5. CVData/CVCX Risk of Ruin calculation
    By BJFan in forum Software
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 08-27-2013, 06:52 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.